Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors have been pushing the pace quite a bit this season, ranking 10th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Houston Rockets, who currently rank only 28th in the league in pace. Golden State also leads the NBA in offensive rating, while Houston ranks 22nd in the league in defensive rating. The Warriors are +3.5 point underdogs in a game set at 230.5 points, but they still feature an implied total of 113.5 points.
Kevin Durant has been ruled out for Golden State tonight, which will open minutes, usage, and opportunities for other players. Draymond Green will likely feature the highest ownership because of his price tag. He’s averaging 5.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 1.8 steals (30.6 DK points) in 31.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He hasn’t been overly consistent recently, but he’ll see more opportunities for rebounds and assists with Durant out of the lineup. He’s entirely too cheap for a player that has triple-double potential, although his scoring has been lacking recently. DeMarcus Cousins is another option, who is simply too cheap on DraftKings. He has had a couple bad games recently, but he’s still averaging 15.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals (34.6 DK points) in 27.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Furthermore, Cousins has scored 40+ DK points in five of his last seven games, while flashing 50+ DK point upside. He played only 26.4 minutes in his only game against Houston this season, scoring 46.5 DK points. Cousins is expected to see roughly 30 minutes tonight, and we can add to his value a bit more with Durant out of the lineup. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson can both be considered here, but I lean Curry, who should benefit more than Thompson from the absence of Durant. Curry is only averaging 21.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.0 steals (39.4 DK points) in 34.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days, but he simply isn’t needed. In their three last close matchups, Curry posted 47.25, 45.5, and 53 DK points. He’ll see his usage increase a bit with Durant out, and Golden State will need Curry’s scoring to keep up with James Harden and company. In two matchups against the Rockets, Curry is averaging 49.8 DK points in 37.6 minutes per game, and we could see similar production in this game tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies have featured the slowest pace in the NBA through 68 games this season. They get a matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who currently rank second in the league in pace, but have consistently lead the league in pace throughout the year. Memphis also ranks last in the NBA in offensive rating, while Atlanta ranks 28th in the league in defensive rating. The Grizzlies are -1 point favorites in a game set at 220.5 points, giving them an implied total of 110.8 points.
Avery Bradley is arguably the most under-priced player on the slate tonight, but he’s getting no early love. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 16.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.4 steals (31.0 DK points) in 35.0 minutes per game. He has scored 30+ DK points in five of his last seven games, including a pair of games with 47.25 and 45.25 DK points. He has been locked into major minutes for Memphis, and he gets a matchup against Atlanta, who features arguably the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA this season. Bradley’s price tag still represents his time with the Los Angeles Clippers, but his role is significantly larger in the Memphis offense. Mike Conley is another player who will benefit from this matchup. Atlanta simply doesn’t have anyone that can stop him defensively, and he has been heating up recently. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 31.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.3 steals (52.0 DK points) in 34.0 minutes per game. Conley only played 25 minutes in his only matchup against Atlanta this season, but he still posted 40 DK points in that game. This game is expected to stay close, meaning we could see full minutes from Conley, who comes with tremendous upside for a relatively low price tag. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been ruled out tonight, which could open a few extra minutes for Joakim Noah. Since returning from his most recent string of missed games, Noah is averaging 11.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.2 blocks in only 22.5 minutes per game. He has looked outstanding on a per minute basis throughout the majority of the season, as well. Noah has scored 27+ DK points in seven of his last nine games, including a 47.25 DK point performance against the Los Angeles Clippers. He’s only expected to play roughly 20-25 minutes tonight, which could keep his ownership low, but that’s more than enough time for him to hit value in this good of a matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Avery Bradley
I have already outlined Bradley above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He’s averaging over 30 DK points per game over the last 10 days, and he has relatively easily been exceeding value on a near nightly basis. His current price tag represents his role with Los Angeles Clippers rather than his new role with the Memphis Grizzlies. Bradley also gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who feature one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA this season. Bradley is as safe as they come, and he can be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Jarrett Allen
Allen was recently struggling, but he has found more minutes over his last three games. Over that span, he’s averaging 15.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.3 blocks (35.8 DK points) in 27.2 minutes per game. He played 25+ minutes in each of those games, scoring between 28 and 43 DK points in each contest, flashing consistency and upside.
Allen gets a difficult matchup on paper against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he has found success against them earlier this season. In their only matchup this season, he scored 32 DK points in 27.6 minutes. Allen is expected to play minutes in the mid- to high-20s tonight, and he comes with quite a bit of upside. He shouldn’t be trusted in cash games, but he makes a great tournament option on this slate.
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