Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls have been slowing the pace down throughout the 2018 season, ranking 21st in the NBA in pace through 68 games. They get a matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, who currently rank fourth in the league in pace. Chicago also only ranks 29th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Los Angeles ranks 14th in the league in defensive rating. The Bulls are only +1.5 point underdogs in a game set at 226 points, and they feature an implied total of 112.3 points tonight.
Zach LaVine is currently doubtful for this game, which opens minutes and usage for other players. Ryan Arcidiacono will likely draw the start once again tonight. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 9.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists (17.4 DK points) in 25.3 minutes per game. He hasn’t been an elite fantasy option throughout his career, but he’ll find the minutes and his price tag entirely too low. In his only matchup against the Lakers, Arcidiacono scored 22.5 DK points in only 19.2 minutes. He’s likely to see minutes in the high-20s or low-30s tonight, making him one of the best cash players on the slate. Otto Porter Jr. has played extremely well since joining Chicago, and he’s averaging 18.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.0 steals (38.4 DK points) in 36.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. His price tag simply hasn’t adjusted to his new role and production. He has scored 30+ DK points in eight of his last 10 games. He has also scored 40+ DK points in four of those games, including a pair of games with 55+ DK points. Lauri Markkanen has cooled off recently, but he’s still averaging 18.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists (36.7 DK points) in 34.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. More importantly, he has seen an uptick in usage rating with LaVine out. He should take over as the focal point of the offense tonight, and Los Angeles is dealing with a plethora of injuries that will hamper their defense. These players should be locked into major minutes, and they come with plenty of upside and consistency in this matchup.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers have been pushing the pace this season, ranking ninth in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Portland Blazers, who rank only 18th in the league in pace through 66 games. Los Angeles also ranks 10th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Portland ranks 16th in the league in defensive rating. The Clippers are currently +2 point underdogs, in a game set at 233 points, but they still own an implied total of 155.5 points.
Lou Williams continues to make the top option for Los Angeles, specifically when they are playing in games that are expected to stay close. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 26.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.4 steals (40.8 DK points) in only 27.2 minutes per game. He has also scored 46 and 65.25 DK points in his last two games. Williams has struggled against Portland this season, but he is shooting only 28.6% from the field in those games. I expect positive regression tonight, and Williams makes an outstanding option in this game. Danilo Gallinari has also been playing well recently, as he’s averaging 24.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 2.4 assists (37.1 DK points) in 28.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 35+ DK points in each of his last five games, including a 45.5 DK point performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Portland has struggled against small forwards this season, and Gallinari is averaging 32.3 DK points in 31.3 minutes per game against them this season. There are plenty of options that make sense to fill out this stack, but I’m siding with Ivica Zubac. He’s only playing limited minutes, but he’s averaging 10.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.0 block (25.4 DK points) in only 21.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 20+ DK points in eight of his last 10 games, while flashing 30+ DK point upside. Zubac played 27 minutes in his last game, and he may play extended minutes to slow down Jusuf Nurkic tonight. Zubac certainly adds risk to this stack, but he also adds plenty of upside for a cheap price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Collin Sexton
Sexton has been heating up recently, as he’s averaging 20.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists (28.5 DK points) in 33.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has also scored 42.5 and 34 DK points in his last two games. Overall, Sexton has scored 30+ DK points in five of his last 10 games. He has also been locked into big minutes, playing 30+ minutes in nine of his last 10 games.
Sexton is expected to find big minutes once again tonight, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him find minutes in the high-30s tonight. He gets a matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, who he is averaging 27.8 DK points against in 31.0 minutes per game against this season. Sexton comes with some risk, but he still makes for a cheap option. He can be considered in all leagues, but he may be best suited for tournaments.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Ante Zizic
Tristan Thompson and Larry Nance Jr. are both expected to miss this game, which will open up minutes for Zizic. He has performed well when given the minutes this season, as he’s averaging 0.92 DK points per minute through 47 games. Zizic also played 27 minutes in his last game, scoring 24.25 DK points against the Toronto Raptors.
Zizic gets a tough matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight, but that likely won’t matter. If Thompson and Nance are ruled out, he should find minutes in the high-20s or low-30s once again. If that’s the case, Zizic should easily exceed value for his current price tag. He’ll likely be one of the highest owned players on the slate tonight, but it would be a mistake to avoid him at this point. If you want a pivot, Moritz Wagner makes sense as a high upside option.
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