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We’ve made it through another week of NBA DFS and hopefully we’re starting to see some gains to our bankroll. After a small 2 gamer last night we’re back with a huge Friday night 10 game slate. I’m always excited for some Friday night DFS as it’s a fun way to get my weekend started. I’ll be sweating my PGA lineups during the day and my NBA lineups at night (all while watching two kids and doing my day job). Life is pretty busy these days but I guess that’s what makes life worth living. In addition, the late night hammer has my Wiz going up against the Lakers, so I’ll definitely be firing up some showdown lineups for that one. if anyone wants to chat in discord prior to the late night showdown I’ll be available.
Injuries
- Jimmy Butler – Q
- Lebron James – Q
- Anthony Edwards – Q
- Christian Wood – D
- Ja’Sean Tate – D
- Jarred Vanderbilt – Q
- Dillion Brooks – D
- Dennis Schroder – Q
- Jordan McLaughlin – Q
- Taurean Prince – Q
- Caleb Martin – Q
- Obi Toppin – Q
- Grant Williams – Q
- Talen Horton-Tucker – Q
- Frank Ntilikina – Q
- Doug McDermott – Q
With a 10 game slate we know unforeseen injuries will pop up and we’ll need to be ready to adjust accordingly. I always feel like Friday nights give us a larger edge than normal with so many people not wanting to monitor injury news/starting lineups after lock when they’re out at a bar/dinner. We also have games starting pretty much all night so it may be a night to build my lineups as the night goes along. I typically try to fade the early game and tonight looks no different as I don’t see any “must have” plays in the Minnesota vs. Orlando game. This helps keep our rosters flexible for any late news that may drop.
GUARDS
This is shaping up to be a really fun slate with a lot of solid value options and a lot of great spend-up options. Guard is just loaded on this slate. As spend- ups we have Luca Doncic, Dejounte Murray, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell and Ja Morant just to name a few of my favorite options. Luca Doncic in a match-up versus Houston stands out (especially since they are now without Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith). Doncic is my favorite spend-up option on the slate, but Guard has a lot of great value options so it’s a tougher decision than it may seem. Dinwiddie is the premier mid-range play but I like going all the way down to Devonte’ Graham and Jordan Clarkson as my two favorite salary relief plays tonight. Graham should see a big minutes boost with CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram out tonight. I’m expecting Graham to start and play upwards of 30 minutes tonight in a fast paced match-up with Charlotte. Graham is typically at .9 fantasy points per minute and 24% usage on the year with Ingram and McCollum off the floor, so at a $4,300 price tag he’s much too cheap for his expected starting role on this team going forward. I also always love playing Jordan Clarkson since he just loves to chuck, but the minutes just haven’t been there this season. Tonight, Utah is missing Bojan Bogdanovic from the rotation which opens up about 30 minutes of extra playing time to go around. In the past, Snyder has just shortened the rotation when a player gets ruled out and that’s what I’m expecting tonight. The question is whether Utah will roll out a 3 guard starting lineup. If we see Clarkson starting I feel safe in projecting him for 30+ minutes tonight, so keep an eye out for the Jazz starters. Clarkson is priced at $4,800 on DK, which is cheap even for his typical bench role of 25 minutes. He’s a fantasy point per minute producer who I expect to see close to 30 minutes tonight and to top it off he’s projected for single digit ownership. Sign me up for some Clarkson in GPPs.
FORWARDS.
Forward is tricky in that Small Forward looks terrible tonight. There really isn’t one play I feel good about at Small Forward so my current plan is to wait on value opening up at Small Forward. If nothing opens up I’ll just have sprinkles of a lot of Small Forward plays across my MME portfolio, as I don’t want this position to ruin my night. Power Forward is a different story – I love spending up for Lebron James tonight if we get enough value available. Lebron and the Lakers are in win now mode if they want to make the playoffs and we’re seeing Lebron play close to 40 minutes a night. This evening the Lakers square off with the Wiz in the late night hammer. What I like about this game is it should be fast paced and I just don’t see either team blowing out the other (the game currently has a 4 point spread). If we can make it work I love pairing Luca and Lebron in cash games tonight. One note: Lebron is listed as questionable on the injury report and there are no other games to swap to so there’s some risk with playing Lebron tonight. I fully expect him to play but just thought I’d throw that caveat out. Also, keep an eye out for the Christian Wood injury news. Should Wood get ruled out (now listed doubtful), Sengun again looks like a great play (although the price has risen some to $6,200).
Center
At Center, Jonas Valanciunas sticks out as the best spend-up option for a short-handed Pelicans team. Jonas has been at 1.3 fantasy points per minute on the year with Ingram and McCollum off the floor. He also gets a fast paced match-up with the Hornets. In addition, Valanciunas is priced at somewhat of a discount at $7,800 on DK. He looks like a great play tonight but it could be tough to fit multiple studs (Lebron, Luca) with Jonas, so roster construction will be interesting tonight. If we’re looking for some salary savings, I’d expect Max Kleber to be chalky as he should see an expanded role with Finney-Smith ruled out. Kleber is priced all the way down to $3,700 and is typically about a .8 fantasy point per minute producer. I’m expecting close to 30 minutes of playing time tonight and he’s projecting as one of the best value options on the slate. If you’re feeling frisky in tournaments, I don’t mind Mason Plumlee, who I seem to always love playing in GPPs. Last game he saw 30 minutes of playing time and put up 39 fantasy points so the ceiling is evident. He’s getting the majority of the Center minutes of late and Plumlee can produce when he’s on the court as he really fills up the stat sheet in a number or categories. At a $4,500 price tag and less than 5% projected ownership, I like Plumdog for large-field GPPs.
I’m really excited about this slate and see a lot of great low-owned pivots. Hopefully we can end this week with a bang (or a bink) and take down some GPPs tonight. Good luck Karma Nation!
Max
