Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers and Sacramento Kings will be playing in one of the fastest paced games of the evening. These two teams rank ninth and first in the NBA in pace, respectively. Los Angeles also ranks 12th in the league in offensive rating, while Sacramento ranks 18th in the NBA in defensive rating. The Clippers are currently +3.5 point underdogs in a game set at 237.5 points, but they still feature an implied total of 117 points.
I don’t necessarily believe there will be only one “Chalk Stack” on the slate tonight, but Los Angeles is a team that will garner some ownership. Patrick Beverley is entirely too cheap for someone, who has found plenty of success since the All Star Break. Since then, he’s averaging 9.5 points, 8.5 rebonds, 4.8 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.5 steals (33.3 DK points) in 33.1 minutes per game. He has scored 30+ DK points in three of those four contests, including 38.5 and 45 DK points in his last two games. Sacramento has struggled against guards throughout the season, and Beverley is averaging 0.93 DK points per minute against them through three matchups. Lou Williams is another guard, who has found plenty of success recently, and will also feature solid ownership tonight. Since the All Star Break, he’s averaging 20.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 1.5 steals (36.6 DK points) in 30.5 minutes per game. Williams generally sees 30+ minutes in close games, and this game isn’t projected to get out of hand at any point in time. He has needed only 23.0 minutes per game against Sacramento to average 31.4 DK points per game, and he’s entirely too cheap tonight, which seems to be the case for multiple players tonight. Ivica Zubac isn’t getting a ton of time on the court, btu he has produced well in his limited time. He also comes with an absurdly low price tag, which has allowed him to consistently hit value. Zubac is averaging 7.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists (22.1 DK points) in only 19.2 minutes per game over his last four games. He’s only expected to see minutes in the high-teens or low-20s, which is enough time for Zubac to hit value. He isn’t going to feature a ton of ownership, and doesn’t necessarily have to be used in this stack, but he helps the salary relief quite a bit.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics have been playing at a below average pace this season, ranking 17th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a plus matchup against the Washington Wizards, who rank eighth in the league in pace through 61 games. Boston has found plenty of offensive success, ranking 10th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Washington ranks 26th in the league in defensive rating. The Celtics are -9 point favorites in a game set at 234.5 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 121.8 points.
Kyrie Irving continues to play at an elite level for Boston, averaging 24.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.0 steal (42.4 DK points) in 36.1 minutes per game since the All Star Break. He has played limited minutes in two of his last 10 games, scoring only 21.5 and 18.75 DK points in those contests. Excluding those games, Irving is averaging a healthy 52.6 DK points per game over his last eight games. He only saw Washington once this season, scoring 54.25 DK points in that game. Irving is also averaging 1.45 DK points per minute at home, as opposed to 1.28 DK points per minute on the road. The stars are seemingly aligning for Irving, and he makes an elite option tonight. Al Horford has been inconsistent recently, but he comes with elite upside. He has scored 62.25, 51.5, and 49.5 in three of his last six games. Similarly to Irving, Horford is averaging 1.21 DK points per minute at home, as opposed to 1.05 DK points per minute on the road. Horford has yet to play against Washington this season, but they are a team that has struggled against bigs this season, and he should find plenty of success on his home court tonight. Marcus Morris is the safe option to fill out this stack, while Gordon Hayward comes with tremendous upside. We’ll outline Hayward here, who has struggled in each of his last three games. Prior to that, he had scored 30+ DK points in four of his last five games. Over that five game span, he’s averaging 32.7 DK points per game. Hayward is expected to play minutes in the mid-20s tonight, and this is a fast paced matchup that he can take advantage of. Hayward doesn’t come with an safety, but he’s a high upside option, who likely will feature relatively low ownership on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers have both been pushing the pace through 61 games [each] this season. These two teams currently rank sixth and fourth in the NBA in pace, respectively. Milwaukee has ranks third in the league in offensive rating, although Los Angeles ranks 13th in the NBA in defensive rating. With that being said, Milwaukee is a -4.5 point favorite in a game set at 238.5 points. They own an implied total of 121.5 points tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most obvious player here, but he’ll feature extremely high upside, so we’re going to avoid him. Brook Lopez is entirely too cheap for how well he has been playing. He’s averaging 12.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 4.3 blocks (32.0 DK points) in 32.3 minutes per game since the All Star Break. Lopez has also scored 22+ DK points in a consistent basis for well over 10 games, while also flashing a 40+ DK point ceiling. He gets a great matchup against Los Angeles, and this matchups features a revenge narrative for Lopez. Nikola Mirotic has seen limited minutes since joining Milwaukee, but has has flashed tremendous potential. Since the All Star Break, he’s averaging 14.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.0 block (27.7 DK points) in only 20.3 minutes per game. He played 27 minutes in his last game, scoring 42 DK points against the Sacramento Kings. Mirotic isn’t expected to see a massive upside in minutes tonight, but he should find minutes in the mid-20s against Los Angeles tonight. He certainly comes with risk, but he comes with tremendous upside for a low price tag, as well. Malcolm Brogdon continues be underpriced on a nightly basis, as he has consistently scored 30+ DK points on a nightly basis. Over his last four games, he’s averaging 19.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists (32.9 DK points) in 30.2 minutes per game. He may not come with the pure upside of Eric Bledsoe or Khris Middleton, but Brogdon has flashed 40+ DK point upside, as well. He’s still under $6K, and Brogdon adds more safety and upside to this stack, similarly to Lopez.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Tomas Satoransky
Satoransky has featured plenty of ups and downs, but that has kept his price tag down. Since the All Star Break, he’s averaging 11.3 points, 1.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 2.3 steals (26.1 DK points) in 29.6 minutes per game. He has scored 24+ DK points in each of his last four games, while also flashing 40+ DK point upside over his last 10. Satoransky also comes with quiet triple double potential when given the time.
He’s expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, similarly to his minutes in each of his last two games. He gets a tough matchup against the Boston Celtics, who have performed well against guards this season, but that may not matter. Satoransky isn’t safe enough for cash games regardless, but he comes with tremendous upside, even in a difficult matchup. He’s an outstanding tournament option, as it seems he’s going overlooked by the majority of the community tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Harry Giles
Giles has only played limited minutes this season, but he has found plenty of success in that time. Through 48 games, he’s averaging 6.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists (14.2 DK points) in only 13.1 minutes per game. He was given 17 minutes and a sizeable role in the offense with Marvin Bagley injured in his last game, scoring 30.75 DK points against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Giles is expected to see around 20 minutes tonight, which should be enough time for him to exceed value at his current price tag. He also gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, who have struggled against bigs this season. Furthermore, Giles is averaging 1.13 DK points per minute in three matchups against Los Angeles. He’ll likely feature some ownership tonight, but Giles makes a great option in all leagues tonight.
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