Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors have been pushing the pace a bit this season, ranking 10th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Miami Heat, who only rank 23rd in the league in pace through 59 games. Golden State also leads the NBA in offensive rating, while Miami ranks seventh in the league in defensive rating. The Warriors are currently -9.5 point favorites in a game set at 223.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 116.5 points on this slate.
DeMarcus Cousins has been ruled out for tonight, which opens the door for other players to see increased usage and opportunities for peripherals stats while on the court. Kevin Durant is a player that sees a massive increase in value when Cousins is off the court, as he tends to see an increase in usage rating and rebounding opportunities. Durant has been struggling quite a bit recently, which has dropped his price tag to only $9.2K. Those struggles can mainly be attributed to Cousins, though, and Durant will not have to share the spotlight with multiple Golden State players tonight. In his only matchup against Miami, he scored 53.5 DK points in 36.4 minutes. He also did that with a healthy Golden State lineup, meaning he could be in line for an even bigger game tonight. Draymond Green is another player that will benefit from the absence of Cousins. He isn’t an elite scorer, but he’s a five-category contributor, who has triple double potential on a nightly basis. He’s coming off of a 46 DK point performance against the Charlotte Hornets, and will see 30+ minutes again tonight. Green also scored 37.25 DK points against Miami in their only matchup this season, and $5.9K is simply too cheap for someone with Green’s versatility on the court. There are a few options that can be considered to fill out this stack, but I’m siding with the other star of the show, Stephen Curry. He has performed well since returning from the All Star Break, as he’s averaging 25.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 2.3 steals (50.8 DK points) in 35.4 minutes per game over that span. Similarly to Durant, Curry’s price tag has dropped, but he will see a more significant role in the offense with Cousins out. He was the odd man out in his first matchup against Miami, totaling only 38.5 DK points, but we could see a significant jump tonight, as he totaled very few peripheral stats in that game. This stack isn’t going to come cheap, but their usual price tags without Cousins would be significantly higher, making them easy cash options tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans are two of the fastest paced teams in the NBA this season, ranking fourth and fifth in the league in that category through a total of 122 games. Los Angeles has struggled offensively, ranking only 22nd in the NBA in offensive rating, but New Orleans ranks in the same slot in defensive rating. The Lakers are -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 239.5 points tonight, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 122.5 points.
Los Angeles only has four main stars, and we simply need to trim that down to three for this stack. LeBron James is the obvious option on the team, and there’s no reason to avoid him tonight. Since the All Star Break, he’s averaging 26.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 9.7 assists, and 2.7 steals (61.6 DK points) in 39.3 minutes per game. He has flashed 80 DK point upside recently, and James is going to have to continue taking over games if he wants Los Angeles to have a shot at playoffs. This is also an elite matchup for him, as he’s averaging a healthy 65.1 DK points in 38.4 minutes per game against New Orleans this season. James will be a chalky option tonight, but the players surrounding him will help even the ownership out. Kyle Kuzma is likely the safest option to stack with James, but he also comes with solid upside. He has scored 30+ DK points in each of his last six games, and he’s averaging 36.4 DK points per game over that span. He relies heavily on scoring, and he will see plenty of opportunities for that in this game. Through two matchups against New Orleans, Kuzma is averaging 34.1 DK points in 34.2 minutes per game. Los Angeles is at a point in the season where they have to play specific players big minutes, and Kuzma will see 30+ minutes once again tonight. Brandon Ingram is another option that can be considered here, but I’m siding with the salary relief of Reggie Bullock. He has been playing extremely well for his current price tag, scoring 25+ DK points in three of his last four games. He has also played 30+ minutes in every game since joining Los Angeles. Similarly to Kuzma, Bullock relies heavily on scoring, making him that much more appealing in this matchup. He struggled in his only matchup against New Orleans this season, but he should continue to see open shots with James facilitating the ball, and he makes the price tag of this stack a bit more management on a large slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings and Milwaukee Bucks are another set of teams that may be playing in the fastest paced game of the evening. These two teams rank second and sixth in the NBA in pace, respectively. Sacramento has featured plenty of offensive ups and downs, though, ranking 19th in the league in offensive rating through 60 games. The same can’t be said for Milwaukee, who leads the NBA in defensive rating in 2018. The Kings are +5.5 point underdogs in a game set at 235 points, but they own an implied total of 114.8 points tonight.
I wrote that it was a travesty that Marvin Bagley III was being overlooked in his last game, and I simply have no words for it tonight. He’s $6.7K, but still going to feature low ownership on this slate. Since the All Star Break, Nemanja Bjelica has basically been removed from the rotation, leaving bigger minutes for Bagley. In three games since then, he’s averaging 24.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.7 blocks, and 1.3 steals (47.9 DK points) in 35.5 minutes per game. He has scored 47+ DK points in three consecutive games, while double-doubling in each game. He needed only 20.2 minutes to score 22 DK points against Milwaukee earlier this season, and I expect him to find more success in this matchup tonight. Play Bagley. De’Aaron Fox’s price tag isn’t as horrendous as Bagley’s, but he’s still more than cheap enough to make a strong tournament option. He’s averaging 20.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.7 steals (39.6 DK points) in 32.5 minutes per game since the All Star Break. He has scored 35+ DK points in each of those games, including 40+ DK points in two of them. Fox also needed only 25.5 minutes to score 32 DK points in only matchup against Milwaukee this season, and he’ll be locked into 30+ minutes tonight. Fox doesn’t always come with elite consistency, but his upside for his price tag is undeniable. Bogdan Bogdanovic makes an elite play (see below), but the upside of Buddy Hield is too much to pass on here. Hield saw his price tag drop after his last game, even though he has scored 30+ DK points in each of his last 10 contests. He also owned 50+ DK points in two of those games, flashing tremendous upside. Similarly to his teammates, he’s been playing at a high level since the All Star Break, as he’s averaging 23.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.3 steals (38.7 DK points) in 31.6 minutes per game over that span. He was upset with his recent benching in the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Wolves, and could come out looking to prove the coaches wrong in this game. Bagley, Fox, and Hield are all significantly underpriced for their upside, and it’s a bit shocking that the industry is off SacTown in this matchup tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Bogdan Bogdanovic
How many times do I need to write up Bogdanovic before something changes? He has scored 25+ DK points in eight of his last 10 games, and that production has been going on well before that, as well. He has also flashed tremendous upside at times this season, including a near triple double against the Toronto Raptors.
Bogdanovic will continue to see minutes in the high-20s or low-30s tonight. He gets a relatively difficult matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, but the pace of this game will more than make up for Milwaukee’s tough defensive matchup. Bogdanovic isn’t always the flashy option, but he’s a near lock for 25+ DK points, which is all you may need in cash games at his current price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Dwight Powell
Powell has certainly featured some ups and downs this season, but he has performed extremely well on a per minute basis. Through 56 games, he’s averaging 1.03 DK points per minute. He has seen 30+ minutes in each of his last two games, as well. Powell also posted an outstanding 24/8/4/2/2 line (49 DK points) in his last game against the Los Angeles Clippers.
He is expected to find around 30 minutes once again tonight, although he may not see the same 37 he saw in his last game. He gets a matchup against the Indiana Pacers, which is tough on paper, but he was able to score 19.75 DK points in only 14.1 minutes against them in their only matchup earlier this season. There’s a very real possibility that Powell could be the highest owned player on this slate, but he makes an “avoid at your own risk” type of play tonight.
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