Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks have been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season, ranking sixth in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who only rank 22nd in the league in pace this season. With that being said, Chicago also ranks 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating, while Milwaukee ranks fourth in the league in offensive rating. The Bucks are -8 point favorites in a game set at 226.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 117.3 points tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been labeled as doubtful tonight, which means there will be minutes and usage to go around to the remainder of the rotation. Khris Middleton has flashed consistency recently, scoring 29+ DK points in nine of his last 10 games. He has also caught fire since the All Star Break, as he has scored 42.75 and 39.75 DK points in his only two games since then. He’ll see a larger role in the Milwaukee offense, and he has already found success against Chicago this season. Through three matchups with Chicago, he’s averaging 18.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.7 steals (39.2 DK points) in 32.2 minutes per game. Eric Bledsoe has also found success against Chicago this season, as he’s averaging 17.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 2.0 steals (32.4 DK points) in only 29.3 minutes per game. He recently had a few rough games, but he scored 35.75 DK points in his last contest. He also had a string of games with 40+ DK points, and he’ll play with the ball in his hands more with Antetokounmpo out tonight. Bledsoe generally relies on upside, but he can also be considered in cash games because of the matchup and situation tonight. Brook Lopez and Malcolm Brogdon both make elite options in this stack, but I’m siding slightly with Brogdon. He’s surprisingly cheap, but has scored 30+ DK points in eight of his last nine games, failing to do so in the only game he played less than 25 minutes in. Brogdon will see 30+ minutes in this matchup tonight, and he’s averaging 18.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists (32.6 DK points) in 29.3 minutes per game against Chicago this season. If you need significantly cheaper options, Ersan Ilyasova and Pat Connaughton can be considered, but they come with more risk than the four players listed above.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers and New Orleans Pelicans will be playing in one of the fastest paced games on the slate. These two teams currently rank seventh and fifth in the NBA in pace, respectively. Philadelphia also ranks ninth in the league in offensive rating, while New Orleans ranks only 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating. The Sixers are currently -1 point favorites in a game set at 240.5 points, giving them one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 120.8 points.
Boban Marjanovic has been starting for Joel Embiid, and that will be the case once again tonight. He scored 38 DK points in 27 minutes against the Miami Heat before flopping with only 14.75 DK points in 19 minutes against the Portland Blazers. That game seems as if it’s more of an outlier, though, as he’s averaging a healthy 1.33 DK points per minute on the season. He’s expected to see minutes in the mid-20s tonight, making him an extremely high upside option for Philadelphia. Ben Simmons is another player that will benefit from the absence of Embiid. In two games since the All Star Break, he’s averaging 25.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists (45.5 DK points) in 37.0 minutes per game. He has also flashed tremendous upside, scoring 52.25 DK points in his last game. Simmons has only faced off against New Orleans once this season, posting a 22/8/7/2/1 line (45.5 DK points) in 35.2 minutes. He’ll be locked into big minutes tonight, and he is a relatively safe option, who also comes with quite a bit of upside for his current price tag. Jimmy Butler, JJ Redick, and Tobias Harris can all be considered for this stack, but I’m siding slightly with Harris. He’ll see increased usage tonight, and will take over as a focal point of the offense. He has found his groove recently, scoring 34.5, 42.75, and 40 DK points in his last three games. Harris has also faced off against New Orleans three times this season, averaging 24.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.0 steal (40.1 DK points) in 36.2 minutes per game against them. He’s still a bit too cheap with the Embiid injury, and he makes a high upside option on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Wolves are another set of teams that will be playing in a fast paced game. These two teams have both been playing at an above average pace this season, ranking second and 13th in the NBA in pace thus far. Sacramento has struggled at times offensively this season, ranking 19th in the league in offensive rating through 59 games. Luckily, Minnesota has struggled defensively, ranking 20th in the NBA in defensive rating in 2018. The Kings are +3.5 point underdogs in a game set at 238 points, but they still own an implied total of 117.3 points tonight.
Marvin Bagley III is going overlooked tonight, and it’s a travesty. Nemanja Bjelica has been removed from the rotation, which has opened the door for Bagley to play 30+ minutes on a nightly basis. In two games since the All Star Break, he’s averaging 23.5 points, 12.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 steals (47.8 DK points) in 35.1 minutes per game. He has consistently dominated while on the court his entire rookie season, and tonight will be no different. Bagley is also averaging 1.12 DK points per minute against Minnesota this season, and he isn’t going to be this cheap for very long. Buddy Hield has been the focal point of the Sacramento offense for the majority of the season, and that will be the case again tonight. He’s coming off an elite game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, scoring 50.25 DK points in 36 minutes of action. He has also performed well against Minnesota this season, although it has been in limited minutes. Overall, he’s averaging 18.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists (30.4 DK points) in only 26.0 minutes per game. He’ll be locked into 30+ minutes tonight, and he comes with tremendous upside. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Willie Cauley-Stein also make outstanding options tonight, but I’m siding with the upside of De’Aaron Fox. He has looked outstanding since the All Star Break, averaging 18.5 points, 2.0 rebounds, 8.5 assists, 2.0 blocks, and 2.0 steals (41.5 DK points) in 32.4 minutes per game. He has also found success against Minnesota this season, as he’s averaging 1.04 DK points per minute against them. There’s also the added bonus of stacking the facilitator with two scorers, giving assists/points upside. It’s a bit surprising that the Kings are going to be low owned tonight, but great plays tend to get overlooked when there is this large of a slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Dwyane Wade
Wade has looked outstanding in his last season in the NBA. Through 48 games, he’s averaging a healthy 1.07 DK points per minute, although he’s only averaging 25.3 minutes per game. That hasn’t been the case since he returned from the All Star Break, though, as he’s averaging 17.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.0 steal (31.9 DK points) in 28.2 minutes in those games.
Wade could be forced into 30+ minutes tonight, as the Miami Heat will be without Rodney McGruder, James Johnson, and Justise Winslow. He gets a great matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who have struggled defensively this season, although Wade found very little success in their only matchup against each other. Still, Wade is entirely too cheap for his recent production and projected role, and he can be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Kelly Olynyk
Olynyk has seen solid minutes since the All Star Break, playing 23 and 29 minutes in his only two games. He has also found success in that time, scoring 22 and 27 DK points in those games. His numbers have been relatively on par with his season averages, as he’s averaging slightly under 1.0 DK point per minute through 55 games.
As mentioned above, the Miami Heat are dealing with a plethora of injuries, which will force Olynyk into big minutes tonight. He’s likely to see minutes in the mid- to high-20s, which should be more than enough time to hit value. He also gets a great matchup against the Phoenix Suns, and he scored 26.5 DK points in only 22.2 minutes in their only matchup against each other. Olynyk will likely be one of the highest owned players on the slate, but he is an extremely safe option, who also comes with upside.
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