Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Charlotte Hornets
The Charlotte Hornets have been slowing the pace down this season, ranking 20th in the NBA in pace through 57 games. They get a great matchup against the Washington Wizards, who rank eighth in the league in pace thus far. Charlotte also ranks 14th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Washington ranks only 26th in the league in defensive rating. The Hornets are -5 point favorites in a game set at 232 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 118.5 points.
Cody Zeller is one of the most mispriced players on the entire slate. He returned from injury only five games ago, and he’s averaging 11.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.0 steal in only 27.6 minutes per game. Zeller has started each of his last three games, while playing 30+ minutes in each of his last two. In those two games, he totaled 30.25 and 32.75 DK points. He gets a great matchup against Washington, who he averaged 1.08 DK points per minute against them in their only matchup this season. Zeller makes an elite option for a low price tag on this slate. Marvin Williams is another Charlotte player, who is under-priced on this slate. His minutes have fluctuated a bit recently, but he generally sees 30+ minutes per game. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 24.7 DK points per game over that span. He has struggled in three of those 10 games, but he failed to play 30 minutes in any of those games. He only had one matchup against Washington this season, scoring 35.25 in 36.2 minutes. Nicolas Batum is the final part of this stack, and similarly to his teammates, he’s entirely too cheap for his recent production. He has scored 22+ DK points in nine of his last 10 games, including three games with 30+ DK points. He’s locked into 30+ minutes again tonight, and Batum has also found success against Washington this season. In their only matchup, he totaled 25.75 DK points in 36.1 minutes. This is an extremely cheap stack, but it is also safe with upside, specifically because of the pace up spot they are currently in.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Utah Jazz have both been playing at an above average pace this season, ranking third and 14th in the NBA in pace in 2018. Oklahoma City also owns an above average offense, ranking 13th in the league in offensive rating. Utah also owns an elite defense, ranking fourth in the NBA in defensive rating through 57 games. Still, the Thunder are -4 point favorites in a game set at 225.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 114.8 points tonight.
Russell Westbrook has been playing at an absurdly high level recently, as he has triple doubled in each of his last 11 games. Over that span, he’s averaging 21.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, 13.5 assists, and 1.5 steals in 36.4 minutes per game. He has also flashed elite upside in his last game, scoring 88 DK points against the New Orleans Pelicans. He has surprisingly struggled against in two matchups against Utah this season, but he’s still nearly averaging a triple double in those games. Paul George is another player that has been playing at an elite level for the majority of the season. Over his last 15 games, he’s averaging 34.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 2.5 steals in 38.1 minutes per game. George has also flashed elite upside recently, scoring 88.5 DK points against the Portland Blazers. Unlike Westbrook, George has found elite success against the Jazz, as he’s averaging 66.4 DK points in 35.1 minutes per game. These two players aren’t going to come cheap, but there may not be an NBA duo that comes with as much upside as Westbrook and George. Jerami Grant is expected to return to full minutes tonight. He has been playing well recently, averaging 14.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.1 steals, and 1.4 blocks in 34.0 minutes per game over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s also averaging 28.4 DK points per game. Grant has also found some success against Utah this season, averaging 24.9 DK points in 34.3 minutes per game. This stack isn’t going to come cheap, but there aren’t many trios in the NBA that possess the consistency and upside as these three.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this season, ranking only 26th in the league in pace through 58 games. They get a great matchup the New Orleans Pelicans, who currently rank sixth in the NBA in pace. Indiana has struggled at times offensively, ranking 16th in the league in offensive rating, while New Orleans ranks 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating. The Pacers are -6 point favorites in a game set at 222.5 points, and they own an implied total of 114.3 points.
Darren Collison will come with some ownership tonight, but he should still be considered in this stack. He’s playing big minutes for the Pacers, and he has scored 29+ DK points in six of his last eight games. He’s averaging 32.6 DK points per game over that span, and has consistently been hitting/exceeding value. He also gets an elite matchup against New Orleans, who he scored 39.5 DK points against in 34.3 minutes. Bojan Bogdanovic has seen his offensive role increase since the injury to Victor Oladipo, but he has been an extremely inconsistent option. He has scored 34+ DK points in four of his last seven games, including a 46.25 DK point performance against the Los Angeles Clippers. Bogdanovic only scored 23.25 DK points in 33.2 minutes against New Orleans this season, but he didn’t look to take over the offense in that game, and I’m expecting him to have a much larger role in the offense tonight. Thaddeus Young is another player that has been relatively inconsistent, but comes with tremendous upside. Over his last 15 games, he’s averaging 12.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.5 steals in 30.2 minutes per game. Over his last 10 games, he also owns scored of 36.25, 42.25, and 39.5 DK points. He only scored 26.25 DK points in 34.5 minutes in his only matchup against New Orleans this season, but Young adds plenty of upside to this stack, similarly to Bogdanovic.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Delon Wright
Wright has only played in three games with the Memphis Grizzlies, but he has found success in those games. Overall, he’s averaging 7.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.3 steals (22.6 DK points) in 28.0 minutes per game. He struggled in his first game, but has scored 29 and 26 DK points in each of his last two games, although he did play 26 and 34 minutes in those games.
Wright is expected to play minutes in the mid-20s tonight, which is more than his season average. He gets a plus matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, who will be looking to push the pace in this game, as well. In two matchups, Wright is averaging 26.4 DK points in only 20.2 minutes per game against Los Angeles. He is an extremely safe option for his current price tag, but he comes with more than enough upside to be considered in tournaments, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Cody Zeller
I have already outlined Zeller above, so I won’t go into too much detail. He has scored 25+ DK points in each of his five games since returning from injury, including 30+ DK points in each of his last two games. He has also found success in limited minutes against the Washington Wizards this season, and he should see 30+ minutes tonight. He’s going to come with some ownership tonight, but he’s a player that can be considered in all leagues.
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