Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems! Below I will discuss my NBA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings currently rank second and 30th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Houston also ranks third in the league in offensive rating, while Sacramento ranks 17th in defensive rating. The Rockets are -12.5 point favorites in a game set at 227 points tonight, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 119.8 points.
Russell Westbrook has caught fire recently. He’s averaging 20.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, 10.7 rebounds, 1.0 block, and 2.3 steals (60.8 DK points) in 40.0 minutes per game over his last 3 games. He has triple-doubled in each of those games, while scoring 55+ DK points in each of those games. While Westbrook has found plenty of success in those games, he’s shooting only 32% from the field and 13.3% from beyond the arc. He comes with elite upside if he finds more efficiency in this game.
James Harden is averaging 41.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 3.8 steals (67.1 DK points) in 39.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He scored 85.25 DK points only a few games ago. Harden is another player that boasts triple-double upside, although he isn’t likely to see that while Westbrook is on the court. Still, Harden comes with more than enough upside due to his elite scoring ability.
Since returning from injury, Capela is only averaging 13.3 points, 14.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.7 blocks, and 1.0 steal (38.5 DK points) in 34.6 minutes per game. Still, Capela boasts 20-20 potential. He has reached those marks in three of his last seven games. He’s expected to find minutes in the mid- to high-30s tonight, and Sacramento doesn’t come with the size to contend with him down low. This stack is extremely expensive, but there is more than enough value to easy fit this trio into a stack. This trio also comes with as much upside as any stack on this slate.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Wolves have been pushing the pace throughout the 2019 season. These teams rank eighth and fourth in the NBA in pace, respectively. Phoenix currently ranks sixth in the league in offensive rating, while Minnesota ranks 20th in defensive rating. The Suns are -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 234 points, and they boast an implied team total of 118.8 points tonight.
Ricky Rubio is averaging 34.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has turned those minutes into 11.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 11.8 assists, and 1.8 steals (38.5 DK points) per game. Excluding a 25 minute performance against the Orlando Magic, Rubio has scored 37+ DK points in each of his last 4 games, while flashing 55 DK point upside. He’s also averaging 1.24 DK points per minute at home, as opposed to 1.01 DK points per minute on the road.
Devin Booker has caught fire recently. He’s averaging 39.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 1.5 steals (60.8 DK points) in 39.5 minutes per game in his last 2 games. He has scored 50 and 71.5 DK points in those games. In Booker’s only matchup against Minnesota, he scored 65 DK points in 38.3 minutes. He makes an elite tournament option on the slate tonight.
Kelly Oubre is far from a consistent option, but he’s averaging 17.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 1.8 steals (35.2 DK points) in 37.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 48+ DK points in 2 of his last 5 games, while also scoring fewer than 20 DK points in 1 of those games. Still, Oubre scored 50.25 DK points in 38.2 minutes in his only matchup against Minnesota, and he could find similar success tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans rank fifth in the NBA in pace in 2019, while the Detroit Pistons rank 26th this season. Through 23 games, New Orleans also ranks 19th in the league offensive rating. On the other side, Detroit ranks 19th in defensive rating through 23 games. The Pelicans are -1 point favorites in a game set at 226.5 points tonight. They possess an implied team total of 113.8 points.
Lonzo Ball is a player that never seems to feature ownership. He is coming off of a terrible game, scoring only 10.5 DK points against the Dallas Mavericks. He scored 54 DK points against the Phoenix Suns in the game before that, though. On the season, Ball is averaging 0.98 DK points per minute. He’s expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, making him a top option for his price tag tonight.
Jrue Holiday is averaging 19.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.4 steals (35.1 DK points) in 35.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Excluding a blowout loss to the Dallas Mavericks, Holiday had scored 32+ DK points in 9 consecutive games, including a 60.5 DK point performance against the Los Angeles Lakers. He is also averaging 1.23 DK points per minute at home, as opposed to 1.01 DK points per minute on the road.
Brandon Ingram is another player that continues to be too cheap. He’s averaging 21.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists (37.2 DK points) in 33.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 39+ DK points in 8 of his last 10 games. He has also flashed 50+ DK point upside over that span. Ingram may feature a bit more ownership than the other options in this trio, but he’s a must start for a New Orleans stack.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Bogdan Bogdanovic has cooled off recently, as he’s averaging 10.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists (18.4 DK points) in 24.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Still, he’s averaging a healthy 1.02 DK points per minute on the season. Bogdanovic will also benefit from the type of matchup he gets tonight.
He will face off against the Houston Rockets, who rank second in the NBA in pace and 15th in defensive rating. Bogdanovic is expected to see roughly 25 minutes tonight, as well. He’s a player that relies heavily on scoring, and he will likely find extra shot opportunities in this type of a game. Bogdanovic isn’t safe enough for cash games, but he can be considered in tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Gordon Hayward
How does DraftKings allow this to happen? Gordon Hayward went through the Boston Celtics walkthrough, and he’s expected to return from injury tonight. On the season, he’s averaging 18.9 points, 7.1 rebonds, and 4.1 assists (36.2 DK points) in 31.1 minutes per game.
Hayward gets an elite matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who rank 24th in the NBA in pace, while also ranking 27th in defensive rating. Hayward has been out for a month, and he could see reduced minutes tonight. Still, Hayward is the minimum price, and he has to be considered if he’s playing 15+ minutes. He’s a player that should be used in all leagues on this slate.
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