Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems! Below I will discuss my NBA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Washington Wizards
The Washington Wizards and Miami Heat currently rank first and 16th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Washington also ranks fourth in the league in offensive rating, while Miami ranks ninth in defensive rating. The Wizards are +9.5 point underdogs in a game set at 231 points tonight. With that being said, they still boast an implied team total of 110.8 points on this slate.
The Washington Wizards are dealing with a plethora of injuries, as Isaiah Thomas, Jordan McRae, C.J. Miles, and Thomas Bryant have all been ruled out tonight. Ish Smith will likely draw the start at point guard tonight. That was the case in his last game, where he scored 19 points with 1 rebound and 8 assists (33.25 DK points) in 34 minutes. Overall, Smith is averaging 0.87 DK points per minute on the season. That number also increases slightly over the last 10 days. Smith will likely be forced into 30+ minutes tonight, and he’ll continue to see a large role in the offense. He’s a must start on this slate.
Bradley Beal possesses a team-high 31.3% usage rating for Washington. He’s the focal point of the team, and he’s averaging 26.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 1.2 steals (45.0 DK points) in 35.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Beal has scored 44+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, including a pair of games with 50+ DK points. Beal is expected to continue to play minutes in the high-30s or low-40s tonight. While Miami boasts a solid defense, Beal should have more than enough opportunities to find success, even in this matchup.
Rui Hachimura is another player that has been forced into big minutes because of Washington’s limited big men. He has played 38+ minutes in each of his last 3 games. He’s averaging 24.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.0 steal (38.7 DK points) in 39.7 minutes per game over that span. Hachimura has also scored 39.25 and 48.75 DK points in 2 of those 3 games. He isn’t priced nearly high enough, and he’s going to be one of the highest owned players on the slate.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Miami Heat
This game has already been outlined above. The Miami Heat also rank 14th in the NBA in offensive rating through 21 games The Washington Wizards rank last in the league in defensive rating through 20 games. Miami is a -9.5 point favorite in a game set at 231 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 120.3 points.
Justise Winslow has seen plenty of ups and downs since returning from injury. In those games, he’s averaging 11.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists (25.3 DK points) in 31.1 minutes per game. Winslow scored as little as 20.25 DK points and as many as 36.75 DK points in those games. He’s currently questionable, but will play full minutes if he’s active. If he’s ruled out, Kendrick Nunn has been outlined below, and he is the player that can be used in this stack.
Jimmy Butler boasts a team-high 24.8% usage rating for Miami this season, and that could increase with Dragic out tonight. He’s averaging 23.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.4 steals (45.1 DK points) in 34.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Butler has also scored 55.5 and 62.25 DK points in his last 2 games, flashing elite upside. He’s a solid option in all leagues tonight.
Bam Adebayo has been a boom or bust option recently. Over his last 10 games, he scored as few as 18.75 DK points and as many as 51.5 DK points. He’s averaging 13.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists (33.8 DK points) in 34.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Adebayo has played 37 and 38 minutes in his last 2 games, though. He gets an elite matchup, and should find tremendous success against a team that only features a few big men.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Kendrick Nunn
Kendrick Nunn is averaging 29.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. In that time, he’s averaging 11.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists (22.4 DK points) per game. Nunn has struggled to flash upside recently. It’s clear that it’s there, though, as he’s shooting only 34.2% from the field and 29.3% from beyond the arc over the last 10 days.
Nunn gets a matchup against the Washington Wizards, which has already been outlined above. With Goran Dragic out and Justise Winslow questionable, Nunn could see 30+ minutes tonight. He isn’t safe enough to be considered in cash games, but he makes a solid tournament option tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Davis Bertans
Davis Bertans has found plenty of success recently. He’s averaging 17.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.0 assist (27.9 DK points) in 30.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Bertans has also scored 30+ DK points in each of his last 3 games. Furthermore, he has played 37 and 40 minutes in each of his last 2 games, taking 16 shot attempts and 10+ three-point attempts in each game.
Bertans gets a matchup against the Miami Heat, which has been outlined above. He’ll continue to see minutes in the mid- to high-30s as the Washington Wizards continue to deal with injuries. Bertans is playing a major role in the offense, and he’s still cheap enough to be used in all leagues on this slate.
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