NBA DFS 12/4/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Sacramento Kings have been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season, ranking second in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who have been pushing the pace a bit recently, but still rank 20th in the league in pace this season. Through 22 games, Sacramento ranks 16th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Phoenix ranks 28th in the league in defensive rating through 23 games. The Kings are currently -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 222.5 points, and they feature the highest implied total on the slate at 114 points.
There are a plethora of players that are going to command ownership on this smaller slate. Bogdan Bogdanovic has been playing at a high level recently, as he’s averaging 19.0 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.0 steal (31.3 DK points) in 32.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has played 30+ minutes in four of his last five games, scoring 30+ DK points in each of those games. He’s likely to be locked into big minutes with Marvin Bagley injured again tonight. Willie Cauley-Stein will also likely be locked into 30+ minutes tonight, and he has looked outstanding when given those minutes. On the season, he’s averaging 14.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.0 steal (31.3 DK points) in 28.4 minutes per game. WCS has also scored 29+ DK points in each of his last six games with 30+ minutes. Phoenix has featured one of the worst defenses in the NBA against centers, making Cauley-Stein a bit of an obvious option tonight. There are multiple other options that can be considered here, but Iman Shumpert makes the most sense for his low price tag. He’ll continue to see minutes in the mid- to high-20s, and he has scored 19+ DK points in four of his last five games, including a 36.75 DK point performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Shumpert comes with a small amount of risk, but this is a matchup that he should be able to take advantage of for a low price tag.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Dallas Mavericks have quietly been playing at an above average pace this season, ranking 13th in the NBA in pace through 21 games. They’ll see a slight downtick in pace tonight, as they face off against the Portland Blazers, who rank 18th in the league in pace this season. Dallas also ranks 12th in the NBA in offensive rating in 2018, while Portland ranks only 20th in defensive rating. The Mavs are currently -1.5 point favorites in a game set at 216 points, giving them an implied total of 108.8 points.
There are a few crucial injury notes for the Dallas Mavericks tonight, which could change the best fantasy options on their rotation. Luka Doncic is currently questionable, but he’s expected to play tonight. He has looked outstanding at home this season, where he’s averaging 19.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.4 steals (37.1 DK points) in 33.3 minutes per game. Doncic also features one of the highest usage ratings on Dallas’ team at 25.8%. Harrison Barnes has also caught fire recently, averaging 23.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists (35.5 DK points) in 33.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has been a better option at home this season, as well. Furthermore, Barnes has scored 34+ DK points in four of his last five games, including two games with 43+ DK points. The final part of this stack comes down to the status of Dennis Smith Jr. If he’s active, he will likely play minutes in the high-20s or low-30s, and he comes with quite a bit of upside, as well as risk. If he’s out, J.J. Barea will continue to see solid minutes. He features the highest usage rating on the team at 27.5%, as well. Barea is averaging 16.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (32.4 DK points) in 22.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 35+ DK points in three of his last four games, and he can certainly be considered even if Smith is healthy. Both come with quite a bit of risk for similar price tags, though.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
White has seen inconsistent minutes throughout the season, but he has performed well while on the court. Through 14 games, he’s averaging 5.9 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists (15.1 DK points) in only 20.2 minutes per game. More importantly, White has played 30+ minutes in his last two games, scoring 25.25 and 30.25 DK points in those games.
White is expected to see 30+ minutes once again tonight. He doesn’t come with a high usage rating, and he gets a tough matchup against the Utah Jazz. With that being said, Utah has struggled defensively at home this season, and White comes with an extremely low price tag. He’s a solid option that can be considered in all leagues because of that price.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Bjelica has looked outstanding when given the playing time through 22 games. Overall, he’s averaging 11.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.0 steal (24.8 DK points) in 24.0 minutes per game. He has played 20 or fewer minutes in each of his last four games, although he scored 23.5 DK points in his last game.
Bjelica could potentially see extended minutes with Marvin Bagley out tonight. He likely only needs around 20 minutes to hit value, and anything more than that would simply add to his value. He also gets a great matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who have struggled defensively this season. His minutes are far from guaranteed, though, which is a major concern. With that being said, Bjelica comes with tremendous upside for a low price tag.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
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