My Core
Jimmy Butler- I’m switching up the article format today because we have a ton of news up in the air. It’s very clear that we will have money to spend, and deciding where to spend it will be key. Before we do that, however, we will need the news on whether Bradley Beal, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins will play. These are slate-altering news pieces, and can dictate roster construction in all formats.
That being said, one stud I’m intent on spending up for is Jimmy Butler against the Washington Wizards. He continues to lead the Heat in usage rate and per minute production, and has a sparkling matchup with the Wizards coming in bottom-five against the Shooting Guard position. He’s been counted on for massive minutes averaging 38 per game over the last 14 games, and still feels under-priced due to the matchup. He’s the first player I’m locking in for cash game builds tonight.
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Note: I would consider adding other players to my core based on news. For example, if Towns misses but Wiggins plays he comes a strong option in all formats as well as someone like Gorgui Dieng and Robert Covington. If Brad Beal misses, the entire Wizards team gets a bump — all of Gary Payton II, Jordan McRae, Troy Brown and Isaiah Thomas.
Christian Wood- Wood is the easiest value play on the slate due to all of the injuries the Pistons are dealing with. Luke Kennard, Markieff Morris, and Blake Griffin are all slated to miss tonight’s game which opens up tons of minutes in the front-court. Even if Wood doesn’t end up starting, our NBA Data Dashboard has him projected for 27 minutes — at 1.1 fantasy points per minute this season, that’s more than enough to beat value at his price. It’s hard for me to not plug him into every build I make, even tournaments.
Terrence Ross- Ross is another value play I like a lot tonight in an up-tempo game against the Atlanta Hawks. It’s no secret that the Hawks are one of the worst defensive units in the NBA, but they also play extremely fast — they’re the seventh-fastest team in the NBA compared to the Orlando Magic who are the fourth-slowest. Aaron Gordon is out tonight, which provides minute increases in usage and per minute production for Ross, but does bump his minutes outlook. He is averaging 24.9 MPG this season, and our Data Dashboard has his projected for 28 tonight. I like the matchup/price combo and will make Ross a staple of my teams on DraftKings tonight.
Leverage Plays
This is a section that I’m considering adding each day, where I highlight a few plays that I feel are going under-owned on each slate.
John Collins- You might think that Collins would be high-owned on this slate, but the more I worked through the slate I just don’t see how it happens. Everyone is focusing on Hassan Whiteside, Bam Adebayo and Christian Wood, leaving Collins to come in under-owned. This is a tough matchup on paper against the Magic, but Collins sports a 29% usage rate and over 1.3 fantasy points per minute with Trae Young and Jabari Parker off the floor this season.
Nikola Vucevic- Vuc is certain to go over-looked due to the presence of Whiteside, Adebayo and potentially Gorgui Dieng should Karl-Anthony Towns miss tonight’s game. Vuc is the biggest beneficiary of Gordon missing the game, his usage rate/FPPM rise from 24.9% and 1.29 to 26.5% and 1.36 with Gordon off the floor. Not only does he get that huge boost, he also has a strong individual matchup with the Hawks ranking dead-last in paint points allowed per game while Vuc leads the Magic in paint points and paint touches.
Jarrett Allen- Another big man that will be largely ignored on this slate. Allen is well over a point per minute player and gets the Wolves who have not been able to guard opposing big men at all this season. They’ve allowed the second-most rebounds per game — meaning this could be a huge double-double spot for Allen at suppressed ownership.
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Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
