Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems! Below, I will discuss my NBA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Portland Blazers
The Portland Blazers and Phoenix Suns rank 11th and ninth in the NBA in pace, respectively. Portland also ranks 11th in the league in offensive rating, while Phoenix ranks 19th in defensive rating. The Blazers are -5 point favorites in a game set at 231 points, and they are tied for the highest implied team total on the slate at 118 points.
The majority of the Portland team continues to be underpriced. Damian Lillard is averaging 29.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, 7.4 assists, and 1.0 steal (47.9 DK points) in 37.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 50+ DK points in each of his last 2 games. Furthermore, Lillard has flashed 60+ DK points over his last 10 games, and he boasts 80 DK point upside in the right situation. He’s a player that has been at his best in Portland, although he somewhat struggled in his only matchup against Phoenix this season. Still, he’s far too cheap on this slate.
C.J. McCollum is another player that has looked great recently. He’s averaging 24.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.2 steals (37.4 DK points) in 37.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. McCollum has scored 50+ DK points in 2 of his last 7 games. He also posted 50.75 DK points in his only matchup against Phoenix this season. He’s seeing 20+ shot attempts per game on a near nightly basis. Similarly to Lillard, McCollum is far too cheap tonight.
The most underpriced player for Portland tonight is Hassan Whiteside. He has scored 40+ DK points in 8 of his last 10 games, while flashed 65 DK point upside. He’s also averaging 12.8 points, 15.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 4.2 blocks (42.8 DK points) in 31.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Those numbers are a bit skewed from a 22 minute performance against the Utah Jazz. Whiteside is likely to be one of the highest owned players on the slate, and he should enjoy an outstanding matchup against the Suns.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Miami Heat
The Miami Heat and Washington Wizards currently rank 21st and second in the NBA in pace this season. Miami also ranks eighth in the league in offensive rating, while Washington ranks last in defensive rating in 2019. The Heat are -8.5 point favorites in a game set at 227.5 points tonight, and they are tied with the Portland Blazers for the highest implied team total on the slat at 118 points.
Goran Dragic has performed well over the last 10 days. Over that span, he’s averaging 16.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists (31.3 DK points) in 29.4 minutes per game. He ranks second on the team with a 24.5% usage rating. Dragic is likely to see around 30 minutes tonight, and he’s a player that boasts 35+ DK point upside for a low price tag.
Jimmy Butler is coming off of a 55.75 DK point performance against the Philadelphia 76ers. He boasts a team-high 25.3% usage rating to go along with triple-double potential on a nightly basis. In his only matchup against Washington this season, Butler posted a 28/11/11/2/1 line, scoring 68.75 DK points. Similarly to quite a few of the players on this slate, Butler is far too cheap, specifically for his upside in an elite matchup.
Bam Adebayo is another player that will likely see plenty of usage. He’s averaging 16.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.3 steals (39.5 DK points) in 35.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Adebayo scored 52 DK points in his only matchup against Washington this season, and they don’t boast the bigs that can slow him down defensively. This is a second “Chalk Stack,” as Miami will likely be relatively high owned on this slate, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Terrence Ross
Terrance Ross is an extremely inconsistent fantasy option. He’s averaging 15.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.0 steal (23.4 DK points) in 27.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Ross has flashed 35+ DK point upside over his last 5 games, but he also owns a floor around 10 DK points. Surprisingly, Ross only boasts a 22.7% usage rating this season, although this does rank fourth on the team.
Ross gets an ideal matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. They rank seventh in the NBA in pace and 29th in defensive rating. Ross is expected to see minutes in the high-20s tonight. He relies heavily on scoring, and should see plenty of easy buckets in this particular matchup. Ross could feature some ownership because of his low price tag, and he makes an outstanding option tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Derrick Jones Jr.
Derrick Jones Jr. has seen mixed results recently. He’s averaging 10.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.0 assist (21.7 DK points) in 30.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He is averaging 24.3 DK points per game over his last 9 contests, though. Jones has played 30+ minutes in 4 of his last 6 games. He is also coming off of a 37 minutes game, scoring 25.5 DK points in a tough matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Jones gets an elite matchup against the Washington Wizards. They currently rank second in the NBA in pace, while ranking last in the league in defensive rating. Jones is expected to play minutes in the high-20s or low-30s tonight. He’s an athletic forward, who will benefit from the pace and extra opportunities in this game. Jones is best suited for tournaments, but he can be considered in cash games for a low price tag.
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DFS Karma is partnered with DraftKings and are also avid fans and users and may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal view on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and we may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended in this article. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
