Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems! Below, I will discuss my NBA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets and Brooklyn Nets rank second and 10th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Houston also ranks third in the league in offensive rating, while Brooklyn ranks 14th in defensive rating. The Rockets are -9 point favorites in a game set at 233 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 121 points.
Russell Westbrook continues to be grossly mispriced. He’s averaging 32.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 1.0 steal (54.1 DK points) in 38.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has played 40 minutes in 4 of his last 5 games, and he has scored 50+ DK points in the same numbers of games over that span. Westbrook has also flashed 60+ DK point upside, and it’s clear that he has taken on a larger role in the offense recently. He is arguably the top option on the slate.
James Harden is averaging 33.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.8 steals (58.1 DK points) in 36.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 50+ DK points in each of his last 10 games, including a pair of games with 80+ DK points. Harden isn’t going to come cheap, but he comes with one of the highest floors in the NBA. On top of a 50 DK point floor, his price tag is a bit representative of his elite ceiling. Harden is a player that will benefit from the fast paced, high scoring nature of this matchup, as well.
P.J. Tucker is an extremely interesting option on this slate. He’s averaging 7.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (24.4 DK points) in 36.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. With that being said, he is far from consistent. Tucker has scored 27+ DK points in 3 of his last 5 games, while failing to score 20 DK points in either of the other 2 games. He has recently flashed 40 DK point upside, though, which is rare for his current price tag. Tucker will also be locked into minutes in the mid- to high-30s. He’s an athletic forward that will benefit from the pace and extra opportunities in this game, as well.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Knicks
The New York Knicks and Washington Wizards currently rank 26th and third in the NBA in pace this season. New York only ranks 27th in the league in offensive rating, while Washington ranks last in defensive rating. The Knicks are -3 point favorites in a game set at 228 points, and they possesses one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 115.5 points.
New York boasts a plethora of high upside players, but it starts with Elfrid Payton. He’s averaging 6.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 1.6 steals (27.3 DK points) in only 25.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has played 27+ minutes in each of his last 3 games, scoring 30+ DK points in each game. Most importantly, Payton comes with triple-double potential, and he will benefit tremendously from the pace of this game, as he’s a versatile guard.
Marcus Morris has seen inconsistent minutes recently, but he comes with tremendous upside. He has played 30+ minutes in 5 of his last 10 games, and he’s averaging 37.1 DK points per game in those contests. Morris has also recently flashed 60+ DK point upside. He’s tentatively expected to see around 30 minutes tonight, and if that’s the case, he makes an elite tournament option.
Julius Randle is averaging 23.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists (38.4 DK points) in 29.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 47.5 and 50.75 DK points in his last 2 games, as well. Washington continues to suffer from injuries to their bigs, and they don’t have anyone that will be able to slow Randle down. He’s the top option for New York tonight, and this stack comes with elite tournament upside.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Cory Joseph
Cory Joseph took over in the Sacramento Kings last game for an injured De’Aaron Fox. He saw 40 minutes, scoring 31.5 DK points. Joseph has played 30+ minutes in 2 of his last 9 games prior to that, as well, scoring 18.5 and 34.25 DK points. On the season, he’s only averaging 0.67 DK points per minute, but he comes with clear upside when on the court.
Joseph gets an interesting matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who rank ninth in the NBA in pace and 20th in defensive rating. With Fox doubtful to play tonight, Joseph is expected to see 30+ minutes once again. He’s seemingly going overlooked at the moment, but that could change by lock. He’s an outstanding option for a low price tag on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Kyle Kuzma
Kyle Kuzma has only played in two games since returning from injury. In those games, he’s averaging 20.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 block, and 1.0 steal (30.3 DK points) in only 24.4 minutes per game. Kuzma was able to play 27 minutes in his last game, scoring 34 DK points against the Los Angeles Clippers. He has seen 32 shot attempts since returning from injury, as well, and he’ll continue to be a big part of the offense tonight.
Kuzma gets a plus matchup against the Portland Blazers. They currently rank 11th in the NBA in pace and 19th in defensive rating. While he won’t be locked into full minutes, Kuzma should continue to see minutes in the mid- to high-20s tonight. He does come with some risk, but he’s cheap enough that he can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
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DFS Karma is partnered with DraftKings and are also avid fans and users and may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal view on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and we may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended in this article. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
