Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems! Below I will discuss my NBA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns rank third and eighth in the NBA in pace, respectively. Houston also ranks third in the league in offensive rating through 28 games. Phoenix ranks 18th in the NBA in defensive rating through 28 games, as well. The Rockets are -6.5 point favorites in a game set at 236 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 121.3 points.
Russell Westbrook has quietly been playing well recently. He’s averaging 29.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.5 steal (50.5 DK points) in 37.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has played 40 minutes in each of his last 2 games, scoring 60.5 and 53 DK points. Westbrook has also seen 56 shot attempts, 13 three-point attempts, and 22 free throw attempts over that span. He triple-doubled in his only matchup against Phoenix, scoring 71 DK points in that game. Westbrook will also benefit from the injury to Ricky Rubio tonight.
James Harden isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s averaging 40.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 1.6 steals (65.8 DK points) in 37.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 50+ DK points in 9 of his last 10 games, including 4 games with 78+ DK points. Harden is a player that has been slightly better on the road in 2019, as well. He’ll benefit from the pace of this game, and Phoenix doesn’t have anyone that can stick with him defensively. He scored 57 DK points in their only matchup, and makes an elite option tonight.
Clint Capela isn’t overly consistent, but he’s averaging 36.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. In that time, he’s averaging 12.6 points, 13.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.4 blocks, and 1.4 steals (39.6 DK points). Capela has scored 45+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games, as well. The Suns could be without three of their best big man, and Deandre Ayton has already been ruled out tonight. They don’t boast an bigs that will be able to slow Capela down, making him an outstanding option in this matchup.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers and Washington Wizards currently rank 19th and second in the NBA in pace this season. Philadelphia only ranks 16th in the league in offensive rating, while Washington ranks last in defensive rating. The 76ers are -12.5 point favorites in a game set at 228.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 120.5 points tonight.
Josh Richardson has seen bigger minutes over his last two games. He was able to play 33 and 37 minutes in those games, scoring 27 and 34.75 DK points. His price tag has increased a bit, but Richardson is a player that can contribute in each of the five categories. He’ll benefit from the pace and lack of defense in this game, as well. Richardson’s price tag hasn’t quite matched his potential in full minutes, making him an outstanding option for Philadelphia tonight.
Tobias Harris is coming off of a pair of bad games, but he’s still averaging 19.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.0 block (33.8 DK points) in 35.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Harris boasts a massive role in the offense, and he should find no problems scoring in this game. He’s a bit cheap for the matchup, although he does come with risk.
Joel Embiid has caught fire recently. He’s averaging 27.8 points, 14.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.0 steal (57.5 DK points) in 33.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Embiid has scored 50+ DK points in each of his last 4 games, including a pair of games with 60+ DK points. Washington lacks talented bigs, and Embiid is the only true must start in a Philadelphia stack.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Kyle Korver
Kyle Korver is only averaging 17.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s averaging 9.0 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 1.3 assists (15.5 DK points) in those games. Korver played 25 minutes against the Dallas Mavericks, though, scoring 28.5 DK points. He’s averaging 0.67 DK points per minute on the season, as well.
Korver gets a plus matchup against the New York Knicks. They only rank 26th in the NBA in pace, while also ranking 26th in defensive rating. The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to be without Eric Bledsoe and Wesley Matthews tonight, bumping Korver’s minutes into the mid-20s. He isn’t an elite fantasy option, but he comes with solid upside for a low price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Dario Saric
Dario Saric has found success in recent games. He’s averaging 13.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists (29.3 DK points) in 30.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Saric also recently flashed upside, scoring 47.25 DK points against the San Antonio Spurs. His only recent struggles came in limited minutes against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Saric gets a matchup against the Houston Rockets, who rank third in the NBA in pace and 16th in defensive rating. Saric is currently questionable, but he’ll see 30+ minutes if he’s active tonight. Deandre Ayton has been ruled out, Ricky Rubio is doubtful, and Frank Kaminsky is questionable tonight. These injuries could also give Saric a larger role in the offense, making him an outstanding salary relief option.
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DFS Karma is partnered with DraftKings and are also avid fans and users and may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal view on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and we may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended in this article. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
