Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems! Below I will discuss my NBA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics rank 24th and 23rd in the NBA in pace, respectively. Detroit also ranks eighth in the league in offensive rating, while Boston ranks eighth in defensive rating. It’s far from an elite matchup, and the Pistons are +9 point underdogs in a game set at 213 points. They own an implied team total of only 102 points on this slate tonight.
Derrick Rose doesn’t generally play big minutes for Detroit, but he leads the team with a 31.0% usage rating in 2019. He has also been playing at an extremely high level recently. Rose is averaging 19.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists (36.7 DK points) in 27.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 30+ DK points in each of his last 6 games, including a pair of games with 40+ DK points. Luke Kennard has been ruled out tonight. While that may not change Rose’s role tonight, he could see a few extra shot attempts in this game. He doesn’t need his role to change to make an outstanding option for his price tag.
Langston Galloway is a player that will benefit more from the injury to Kennard. The former is only averaging 8.4 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.0 steal (14.6 DK points) in 22.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Galloway is only averaging 0.71 DK points per minute on the season. With that being said, he’s expected to be forced into minutes in the high-20s or low-30s tonight. Galloway isn’t an elite fantasy player, but he’s so cheap that he will likely be one of the higher owned players on the slate.
Andre Drummond will be forced into a big role and big minutes with Blake Griffin and Christian Wood out tonight. Drummond is averaging 19.3 points, 14.3 rebounds, 1.0 block, and 1.7 steals (43.4 DK points) in 32.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He recently missed games, though, so that sample size is small. Drummond has scored 50+ DK points in 5 of his last 6 games. He comes with 60+ DK point upside, as well. Detroit is one of two chalk stacks tonight, and the other is outlined as the “Vegas Stack” in this article.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards currently rank 14th and third in the NBA in pace this season. Toronto also ranks 12th in the league in offensive rating, while Washington ranks last in defensive rating. The Raptors are -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 230 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 117.8 points.
Toronto is dealing with a plethora of injuries, forcing Kyle Lowry into big minutes tonight. He has played 37+ minutes in each of his last 3 games, averaging 19.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and 1.7 steals (46.3 DK points) in 38.3 minutes per game over the span. He’ll take on a larger role in the offense with Pascal Siakam and Norman Powell injured. Lowry will also become a must start in all leagues if Fred VanVleet is unable to suit up tonight.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has found success in limited minutes this season. He’s averaging 0.96 DK point per minute this season. Hollis-Jefferson will be forced into minutes in the high-20s tonight because of the injuries to Powell, Siakam, and Marc Gasol. Hollis-Jefferson is currently priced to his floor rather than his ceiling on this slate.
Serge Ibaka will also benefit from the numerous injuries Toronto is dealing with. He’s averaging 12.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.0 block (30.9 DK points) in only 21.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Ibaka was forced into 31 minutes in his last game, scoring 48.25 DK points. He’ll be forced into 30+ minutes again tonight, and Toronto makes an elite cash stack on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder only rank 20th in the NBA in pace. The Phoenix Suns rank eighth in the league in the same category. Oklahoma City only ranks 18th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Phoenix ranks 18th in the league in defensive rating. The Thunder are currently -4.5 point favorites in a game set at 220.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 112.5 points.
Chris Paul has caught fire recently. He’s averaging 17.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 8.4 assists, and 2.2 steals (43.4 DK points) in 33.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He recently scored 60.5 DK points against the Chicago Bulls. Paul is an efficient scorer, who comes with quiet triple-double potential. He’s expected to find big minutes tonight, giving him tremendous upside for a reasonable price tag.
Dennis Schroder isn’t a consistent option, but he enters this game with a team-high 27.8% usage rating. He has flashed recently, averaging 23.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists (34.8 DK points) in 31.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Schroder is also coming off of a 44.25 DK point performance against the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s a player that will benefit from the pace of this game, as he relies heavily on scoring.
Steeven Adams continues to play well for Oklahoma City. He’s averaging 12.6 points, 11.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.8 blocks (35.0 DK points) in 29.1 minutes per game. He has also scored 30+ DK points in 8 of his last 10 games, while flashing 50+ DK point upside. Furthermore, Adams is averaging 1.17 DK points per minute at home, as opposed to 1.08 DK points per minute on the road this season. Phoenix has struggled against centers this season, and Adams makes an outstanding option tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Alec Burks
Alec Burks has found plenty of success recently. He’s averaging 17.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.6 steals (32.4 DK points) in 29.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Burks has played 30+ minutes in 4 of his last 5 games, scoring 30+ DK points in each of those games, while flashing 40+ DK point upside. He also ranks third on the Golden State Warriors with a 22.8% usage rating in 2019.
Burks gets a great matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans. They rank seventh in the NBA in pace and 27th in defensive rating through 29 games. Burks is expected to play around 30 minutes once again tonight. He’s far too cheap for his recent production, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Markieff Morris
Markieff Morris has seen mixed results recently. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 12.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists (21.6 DK points) in only 22.2 minutes per game. Morris also played 33 and 29 minutes recently, scoring 33.75 and 29 DK points in those games. He is averaging 0.94 DK points per game over the last month.
Morris gets a matchup against the Boston Celtics, who have already been outlined above. He’s expected to see 30+ minutes with Blake Griffin and Christian Wood out tonight. Morris recently saw his price tag jump, but he’s still a bit cheap for the upside he possesses in full minutes.
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DFS Karma is partnered with DraftKings and are also avid fans and users and may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal view on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and we may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended in this article. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
