Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems! Below I will discuss my NBA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks currently rank 15th and 12th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Golden State also ranks 25th in the league in offensive rating. With that being said, Atlanta only ranks 29th in the NBA in defensive rating this season. The Warriors are +6.5 point underdogs in a game set at 222 points, but they still boast an implied team total of 107.8 points tonight.
Golden State is dealing with a plethora of injuries at the moment. That will thrust Alec Burks into a major role in the offense. He’s averaging 16.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.0 steals (32.2 DK points) in 34.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Burks hasn’t necessarily been a consistent option recently, but he has scored 40+ DK points in 3 of his last 7 games. He’s expected to see a usage rating around 25% tonight, which will likely lead the Warriors offense. Burks is still cheap enough that he will be one of the highest owned players on the slate tonight.
Marquese Chriss is coming off of a terrible game. He had scored 24+ DK points in each of his 7 games prior to that, though. He has also flashed upside recently, scoring nearly 35 DK points against the Memphis Grizzlies. Chriss is averaging 1.11 DK points per minute over the last month of play. He’s expected to see 20+ minutes for Golden State tonight, as well. Atlanta has struggled at times against bigs this season, and Chriss is a player that can exceed value in limited minutes, specifically in this matchup.
Kevon Looney is expected to return to the lineup tonight. In his only game this season, he scored 15.75 DK points in only 10 minutes. While Looney won’t be thrust into major minutes tonight, he’s expected to see around 20 in this game. He has proven throughout his career that he can find success in limited time on the court, and he’s far too cheap for his upside. Looney’s price tag, along with the other Warriors, allows you to easily fit some of the more expensive options into your lineups tonight.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Atlanta Hawks
The pace of this game has been outlined above. The Atlanta Hawks only rank 27th in the NBA in offensive rating through 20 games. On the other side, the Golden State Warriors rank 27th in the league in defensive rating this season. The Hawks are -6.5 point favorites in a game set at 222 points tonight, and they possess one of the higher implied team totals on the slate at 114.3 points.
Trae Young has caught fire over his last five games. Over that span, he’s averaging 36.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.8 assists (56.6 DK points) in 37.0 minutes per game. Young is an elite scorer, and Golden State features one of the worst defenses in the NBA. The former has been slightly better at home, as well, and he still comes with a reasonable price tag compared to his upside.
De’Andre Hunter hasn’t been playing at a high level recently. He’s averaging 13.7 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists (21.9 DK points) in 35.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He recently flashed upside, though, scoring 46.25 DK points against the Milwaukee Bucks. The key takeaway from Hunter is his minutes, as he has played 35+ minutes in 5 of his last 6 games.
Jabari Parker has played 29+ minutes in 4 of his last 5 games. In those games, he’s averaging 18.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 steals (40.5 DK points) in 32.8 minutes per game. Parker has also flashed tremendous upside, scoring 64.5 DK points against the Milwaukee Bucks. He isn’t an overly safe option, but Parker makes an outstanding option in this elite matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Ky Bowman
Ky Bowman continues to play well. He’s averaging 13.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.4 steals (28.8 DK points) in 32.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Bowman has also flashed tremendous upside, scoring 40+ DK points in 2 of his last 5 games. He’ll see a larger role in the offense with Draymond Green resting tonight, as well.
Bowman gets a matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, which has been outlined above. Bowman will be forced into 30+ minutes tonight. He’ll play a major role in the offense, and he has the ability to contribute in multiple categories.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Dillon Brooks
Dillon Brooks is coming off of one of his best games of the season. He scored 26 points with 2 rebounds and 3 assists (34.5 DK points) in 32 minutes against the Minnesota Wolves. Brooks will be forced into a larger role in the offense tonight, as the Memphis Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, and Kyle Anderson tonight. Jonas Valanciunas is also questionable.
Brooks gets a matchup against the Indiana Pacers. They currently rank 23rd in the NBA in pace and eighth in defensive rating. While this is a tough matchup, Brooks will be forced into 30+ minutes. He’s still a bit cheap, and makes an outstanding option tonight, specifically in tournaments.
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