Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings have been playing at an extremely fast pace this season, ranking second in the NBA in pace through 29 they. They get a matchup against the Minnesota Wolves, who currently rank 11th in the league in pace this season. Sacramento also ranks 11th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Minnesota ranks 18th in the league in defensive rating. The Kings are +7.5 point underdogs in a game set at 232 points tonight, and they own an implied total of 112.3 points.
The Kings will be running a short rotation tonight with Iman Shumpert and Marvin Bagley dealing with injuries. Nemanja Bjelica has been enjoying a great season, as he’s averaging 1.04 DK points per minute this season. He saw 35 minutes in his first game without Bagley, posting a 15/10/1/4 line for 40 DK points. He’s also averaging 35.9 DK points in only 27.6 minutes per game against the Wolves this season. Bogdan Bogdanovic has been playing at a high level recently, averaging 14.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.2 assists (30.5 DK points) in 31.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has been an extremely consistent option, scoring 30+ DK points in seven of his last 10 games, including four of his last five. In his only matchup against the Wolves this season, Bogdanovic scored 36.25 DK points in 30.4 minutes. He should see similar minutes tonight, making him a safe option on this slate. Willie Cauley-Stein is another relatively cheap player, who adds consistency to this stack. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 13.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.3 steals (34.8 DK points) in 30.0 minutes per game. He has scored 30+ DK points in each of his last five games, including two games with 40+ DK points. Furthermore, WCS is averaging 33.4 DK points in 29.1 minutes per game against the Wolves this season. The Kings are a relatively cheap stacking option on DraftKings, and they are one of the safest options on this slate, as well.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Minnesota Wolves
This game will be one of the fastest paced games on the slate, as mentioned above. The Minnesota Wolves only rank 16th in the NBA in pace through 29 games this season, but they get a great matchup against the Sacramento Kings. Sacramento currently ranks only 20th in the league in defensive rating this season. The Wolves are -7.5 point favorites in a game set at 232 points, giving them an implied total of 119.8 points.
Dario Saric is the most obvious play for Minnesota tonight, but that doesn’t mean he’s the wrong play. He has played 30+ minutes in each of his last three games, averaging 15.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists (31.4 DK points) in 32.3 minutes per game over that span. He played his only game against Sacramento two games ago, scoring 33 DK points in 31 minutes. Saric has seemingly taken over at power forward for Taj Gibson, and he’s expected to play 30+ minutes again tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns is another big man that should find plenty of success against a weak Sacramento frontcourt. Towns has been inconsistent, but he’s averaging 54.2 DK points per game over his last five games. He’s been a significantly better option in Minnesota, where he’s averaging 1.45 DK points per minute, as opposed to 1.28 DK points per minute on the road. Furthermore, KAT is averaging 29.0 points, 15.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.0 blocks (56.5 DK points) in 37.1 minutes per game against Sacramento. Jeff Teague is currently questionable, but he makes a great option if he’s active tonight. He’s averaging 29.3 DK points per game over his last 10 games, including a 33.75 DK point performance against Sacramento only two games ago. If Teague is forced to miss the game tonight, Derrick Rose will likely step into minutes as the primary ballhandler, and he can slide into this stack over Teague.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been pushing the pace more this season, ranking seventh in the NBA in pace. They get a matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who rank only 19th in the league in pace this season. With that being said, Chicago also ranks 21st in the league in defensive rating, while Oklahoma City ranks 20th in the NBA in offensive rating. While their offense hasn’t been the best, the Thunder are -13 point favorites in a game set at 212.5 points. They own an implied total of 112.8 points tonight.
The “Big Three” for Oklahoma City could potentially feature some ownership tonight, specifically Russell Westbrook. With that being said, they likely won’t feature a ton of ownership as a trio. Westbrook will be owned at a relatively high rate, but it’s impossible to avoid him in an Oklahoma City stack tonight. He has triple doubled in three of his last six games, scoring 70+ DK points in two of those games. Chicago simply doesn’t have anyone that can guard Westbrook, and he was able to score 24 points with 17 rebounds, 13 assists, and four steals (73.25 DK points) in 35.0 minutes against the Bulls earlier this season. Paul George is the other elite option for OKC, and he’s averaging 28.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 2.4 steals (49.2 DK points) in 36.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 40+ DK points in each of his last seven games, and he’s averaging a healthy 52.1 DK points per game over that span. Steven Adams is the final part of the stack, and he adds consistency for his price tag to this stack. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 21.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.0 steal (37.0 DK points) in 33.1 minutes per game. Excluding his last game, Adams has scored 30+ DK points in eight of his last nine games, including a 53.5 DK point performance against the Denver Nuggets. This trio isn’t going to come cheap, but there’s more than enough value on the slate for them to be considered. The only major concern here is a blowout, as Chicago will be without their star player in Zach LaVine.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Gilgeous-Alexander has enjoyed a solid rookie season, but he has struggled at times. Overall, he’s averaging 10.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.0 steal (21.5 DK points) in 27.1 minutes per game. Similarly to the majority of young players, Gilgeous-Alexander has been a better player at home this season. He has played 29 minutes in four of his last 10 games, averaging 33.5 DK points per game in those games.
SGA is tentatively expected to play 30+ minutes with Lou Williams injured tonight, but that hasn’t been the case since he suffered the injury. He’s a difficult player to predict in terms of court time on a nightly basis, which adds risk, but he gets a solid matchup against the Portland Blazers. In two matchups against Portland, SGA is averaging 15.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.0 block (25.6 DK points) in 32.3 minutes per game. He’s a high upside tournament option for a surprisingly low price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Nemanja Bjelica
I have outlined Bjelica above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He’s been a dominant option on a per minute basis, and he has scored 40, 27.25, and 41.25 DK points in his last three games. Even in limited minutes, Bjelica could hit value in a plus matchup tonight. With that being said, he’s fully expected to play 30+ minutes in this game, and he makes arguably the best option on the entire slate.
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