Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems! Below I will discuss my NBA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies and Milwaukee Bucks rank sixth and first in the NBA in pace, respectively. Memphis only ranks 25th in the league in offensive rating, while Milwaukee ranks first in the league in defensive rating. The Grizzlies are +10 point underdogs in a game set at 227.5 points, but they still feature an implied team total of 108.8 points on this slate.
Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, and Grayson Allen have been ruled out for Memphis tonight. De’Anthony Melton is an extremely cheap option, who will be thrust into bigger minutes. He’s averaging 9.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.4 steals (24.3 DK points) in 22.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Melton has scored 18+ DK points in each of his last 6 games, including a pair of games with 30+ DK points. On the season, he’s averaging 1.13 DK points per minute, and that number increases over the last month. Melton could be one of the highest owned players on the slate.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has been forced into big minutes recently, and that will be the case tonight. He’s averaging 22.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.8 blocks (36.9 DK points) in 30.4 minutes per game. Jackson has struggled with fouls throughout his career, but he has been able to consistently play 30+ minutes recently. That’s expected to be the case again tonight, making him a solid option in this particular matchup.
Jonas Valancinuas isn’t normally a cash game option, but he’s the third part of this stack. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 15.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 2.0 assists (32.4 DK points) in 25.3 minutes per game. He recently scored 60, 53.25, and 57.75 DK points in 3 consecutive games. Valanciunas is far too cheap for his upside, and he could play upwards of 30 minutes with Clarke inactive once again. If you aren’t willing to take the risk on Valanciunas in cash games, Tyus Jones or Solomon Hill are reasonable replacements, although they aren’t likely to see as much ownership as Valanciunas.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers get a matchup against the Minnesota Wolves. These two teams rank seventh and fifth in the NBA in pace. Los Angeles also ranks eighth in the league in offensive rating, while Minnesota ranks 21st in defensive rating. The Clippers are -6 point favorites in a game set at 231 points tonight, giving them one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 118.5 points.
Kawhi Leonard boasts a team-high 33.7% usage rating this season. He’s averaging 21.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.8 steals (42.4 DK points) in 30.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Leonard often times struggles with upside, but he could see more ball-handling duties and an even larger role in the offense with Lou Williams out tonight. Leonard recently scored 58.25 DK points against the Washington Wizards, and this is an ideal matchup tonight.
Paul George is another high upside option. He’s coming off of a bad game, but was able to post 62.75 and 52.5 DK points in his 2 games prior to that. George isn’t nearly as consistent as Leonard, but he boasts a higher ceiling. George could see minutes in the mid- to high-30s tonight, and he’ll also likely see a larger offense role with Williams injured. He is the top option for Los Angeles on this slate.
Montrezl Harrell is the final high upside option for this stack. He’s only averaging 18.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.6 assists (31.3 DK points) in 27.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Harrell recently flashed 60 DK point upside, but his price tag doesn’t represent that. He’s expected to find 30+ minutes tonight, making him a solid option, specifically in tournaments tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers rank only 21st in the NBA in offensive rating this season. They get a matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who rank 11th in the league in the same category. Indiana also ranks 14th in the league in offensive rating, while Atlanta ranks 29th in defensive rating. The Pacers are -6 point favorites in a game set at 224.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 115.3 points tonight.
Malcolm Brodgon is averaging 20.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.2 steals (35.6 DK points) in 31.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. While his numbers aren’t overly impressive, Brogdon is coming off of a 48 DK point performance, and he has flashed elite upside this season. He gets a matchup against a fast paced team that struggles defensively, allowing him to continue his efficient scoring.
T.J. Warren is the obvious option here, but I’m slotting in Doug McDermott. McDermott is averaging 11.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists (19.1 DK points) in 20.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 20+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games, including a 26.5 DK point performance. McDermott relies heavily on scoring, and this is an ideal matchup for him. He comes with quite a bit of risk, but his low price tag and solid upside make him an outstanding tournament option tonight.
Domantas Sabonis will feature some ownership tonight, but he’s a must start in an Indiana stack. He’s averaging 17.5 points, 15.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.2 steals (47.5 DK points) in 34.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Sabonis has also scored between 45 and 57 DK points in each of his last 4 games. Atlanta doesn’t boast any players that can stick with him in the paint, and Sabonis should continue his elite string of games tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Alec Burks
Alec Burks has caught fire recently. He’s averaging 16.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.6 steals (30.2 DK points) in 30.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Burks has scored 30+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games, while flashing 40+ DK point upside. He currently ranks third on the team in usage rating (22.1%) behind only Stephen Curry and D’Angelo Russell.
Burks gets a matchup against the Utah Jazz. They are currently ranked 15th in the NBA in pace, while also ranking 11th in defensive rating. The Golden State Warriors are dealing with a few injuries tonight. That will lock Burks into 30+ minutes. He’s surprisingly cheap for his recent production, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Solomon Hill
Hill is averaging 6.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 2.4 steals (20.5 DK points) in 27.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He played only 17 minutes in his last game, scoring 7.75 DK points. Hill played 28+ minutes in each of his 4 games before that, scoring 17.5+ DK points in each of those games. He also flashed tremendous upside, recently scoring 39.5 DK points against the Indiana Pacers.
Hill gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, which has already been outlined above. The Memphis Grizzlies are dealing with multiple injuries, which is likely to force Hill into minutes in the high-20s tonight. He’s far from an elite fantasy option, but he’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
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