My Core
Eric Bledsoe + Khris Middleton- The entire slate was turned on its head when the news hit that Giannis Antetokounmpo would miss tonight’s game. We have a decent sample size of Bucks players with Giannis off the floor this season, and when you look over the numbers you’ll quickly see that Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton are the big winners here, I’m listing some metrics below:
Bledsoe– 20% usage rate, 1.10 fantasy points per minute with Giannis ON the floor, 33% usage rate + 1.36 fantasy points per minute with him off
Middleton– 21% usage rate, 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Giannis ON the floor, 32% usage rate + 1.34 fantasy points per minute with him off
These are some truly massive increases both in usage rate and per minute production, and they also draw a plus matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans who are bottom-three in the NBA in defensive efficiency while ranking top-five in pace. Both of these players are priced as if Giannis is playing, which we know he isn’t, and they are locks for me across all of my builds in all formats tonight.
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Brandon Ingram- Ingram has been one of my highest-owned players this season, and while I don’t expect him to be extremely high-owned tonight, I would like to be overweight to the field on him. This wasn’t a game I was all that interested in when we though Giannis would play, but now that he is out it’s probably my favorite game to stack. Both of these teams play fast, and the Bucks will not be as good defensively with Giannis off the floor, last season when he was out they took over a 3 point negative hit to their defensive rating. Ingram continues to lead the Pelicans in usage at 29%, with the highest point per minute production total at 1,27 as well. Since we know we will be playing a lot of Bucks players tonight, it only makes sense for me to run it back with Ingram.
Note: I think, with the Bucks value, there is enough room to add one more stud player to my core, and I’m trying to decide who that will be. I plan on playing Donovan Mitchell with Mike Conley still out in cash games tonight, but I don’t really consider him a “stud” for DFS, so my decision is likely to come down to Russell Westbrook and Karl-Anthony Towns. My initial lean is towards Westbrook, the Rockets players are never taken off the floor in blowouts, and the Cavs have been the second-worst team in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency to Point Guards this season. He’s topped 50 DK points in each of his last four games, and has yet to climb over the $10,000 threshold.
Value Plays
Donte DiVincenzo + Other Bucks- I’m planning on playing 3-4 Bucks players in cash games tonight, which I’m sure everyone else will do and it’s hard to avoid it when a 30%+ usage player is taken off the floor. Donte DiVincenzo is my favorite of the cheap Bucks, followed by Brook Lopez and then Ersan Ilyasova. DiVincenzo actually isn’t projecting for high-ownership right now, despite him being the third-highest per minute producer with ABC off the floor after Bledsoe and Middleton. Lopez averaged around three minutes more per game last season in this situation, and was also over one full fantasy point per minute. Ilyasova is set to be chalky due to his price and the expectation that he will start in place of Giannis, but I don’t feel great about his minutes as a whole, so while he is a cash game play, I prefer the other two I mentioned if I have a choice.
DeAndre Hunter- We are really lacking value outside of the Bucks, so looking at DeAndre Hunter at sub-$4,500 may end being a popular move. He’s hit his stride lately eclipsing 20 fantasy points in each of his last four games, including a massive 42 DK point performance last night in an OT loss to the Miami Heat. He draws a strong matchup tonight against the Bulls, and can be considered in all formats at his price if no other value opens up.
That’s about it for the value plays I feel best about, though I would also consider Draymond Green a value play on DraftKings priced below $6,000 against the Knicks. He has still been over a point per minute producer this season, and could see an increase in that department against a bad defensive team like the Knicks. He has legitimate triple double ability every time he takes the floor, and his price tag isn’t really reflective of that.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
