NBA DFS 11/7/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Minnesota Wolves and Los Angeles Lakers will battle in one of the fastest paced games of the night. Minnesota ranks 11th in the NBA in pace, while Los Angeles currently ranks third. The Lakers have also struggled defensively, ranking only 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating. The Wolves rank only 17th in the league in offensive rating, but this is a matchup they can take advantage of. Minnesota is a sizeable underdog in a game set at 238 points, but they still feature an implied total of 116.3 points tonight.
Derrick Rose will be the highest owned Minnesota player with Jeff Teague injured. He has played 35 and 41 minutes in two of his last three games, totaling 97.25 DK points in those games. He leads the team with a 27.2% usage rating, and he’s averaging 22.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists on a per-36 minute basis. Jimmy Butler is currently questionable for tonight, but if he’s starting, he can be considered. He’s averaging 22.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.1 blocks in 34.6 minutes per game. Butler also posted a 32/6/4/2/1 line in 36.4 minutes against the Lakers in their only matchup this season. If Butler is out, Andrew Wiggins will see a major boost in value. Taj Gibson and Karl-Anthony Towns can be considered for the final spot in this stack, but I’m siding with Gibson, who is a salary relief option. Through 11 games, he’s averaging 10.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.1 steals in 26.2 minutes per game. He still comes with an extremely cheap price tag, but he has scored 21+ DK points in nine of his last 10 games. He’s also coming off of a 33.75 DK point performance against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Wolves aren’t the safest stack on the slate, but they’re reasonably priced and get an elite matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans have been pushing the pace throughout the season, ranking fourth in the NBA in pace through 10 games. They get an elite matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who only rank 27th in the league in pace this season. With that being said, Chicago also ranks 25th in the NBA in defensive rating, while New Orleans ranks seventh in the league in offensive rating. The Pelicans are currently -10.5 point favorites in a game set at 228 points, giving them an implied total of 119.3 points tonight.
Anthony Davis has struggled in three consecutive games, which could cause his ownership to drop tonight. He has flashed tremendous upside through seven games, though, as he’s averaging 23.3 points, 11.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 3.1 blocks, and 1.7 steals in 37.3 minutes per game. While Davis has been struggling, he has played 38+ minutes in five consecutive games, and this is a matchup he can take advantage of. Elfrid Payton is questionable tonight, and Jrue Holiday will make an elite option once against if Payton is out. In five games without Payton, Holiday is averaging 22.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 10.0 assists, and 1.2 steals in 38.1 minutes per game. He has also scored 40+ DK points in each of those five games. Nikola Mirotic has also caught fire over that span. He has double doubled in each of his last five games, averaging 19.8 points, 13.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.6 steals in 34.4 minutes per game over that span. Similarly to Holiday, Mirotic has scored 40+ DK points in five consecutive games, as well. This stack isn’t going to come cheap, but similarly to most 10 game slates, there are enough salary relief options to easily fit this trio into your lineups.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs have been slowing the pace down this season, ranking 25th in the NBA in pace through nine games. They will see an uptick in pace against the Miami Heat, who rank 12th in the NBA in pace this season. The Heat have featured an average defense this season, while the Spurs feature the eighth ranked offense in the league thus far. The Spurs are small underdogs in a game set at 217.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 107.8 points, which could keep their ownership low.
DeMar DeRozan has been thriving in his new role with the Spurs. He features a team-high 30.1% usage rating, turning that into 27.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 1.2 steals in 36.9 minutes per game. LaMarcus Aldridge has also been a featured part of this offense, recording a 26.5% usage rating this season. He’s nearly averaging a double double on the season, averaging 20.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.0 block in 35.6 minutes per game. DeRozan and Aldridge are also combining to average 38.1 shot attempts and 11.8 free throw attempts per game. With Rudy Gay out, Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli, and Davis Bertans can all be considered for low price tags. Mills has caught fire over his last two games, totaling 31 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, one block, and one steal (67.25 DK points) in 61 minutes. Mills is a risky option, but he adds a plethora of upside for a cheap price tag to this stack.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Huerter has performed well in limited minutes this season. Through 10 games, he’s averaging 5.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.6 assists (14.8 DK points) in 17.2 minutes per game. He’s also averaging a 12.1/7.3/3.3/1.5/0.6 line on a per-36 minute basis this season. Huerter has played 32 and 29 minutes in his last two games with Taurean Prince dealing with an injury. In those games, Huerter was able to score 25.25 and 20.25 DK points.
Huerter is expected to play around 30 minutes with Prince injured again tonight. While Huerter hasn’t flashed elite upside, he is a versatile player, who can contribute at some level in each of the five categories. Once Prince is officially ruled out, Huerter is a salary relief option that can safely be used in all leagues. He’s likely to feature a plethora of ownership on this slate, though.
NOTE: Kevin Huerter has been ruled out for tonight. Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli are two salary relief guards that can be considered in his place.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
There are plenty of value bigs tonight, but Thompson is a player that needs to be considered. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 12.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.3 steals in 29.5 minutes per game. He still comes with a low price tag, but he has scored 40+ DK points in two of his last four games. Thompson comes with double double upside when given the minutes, as well.
He is expected to play roughly 30 minutes tonight, as he has earned more minutes with the Cleveland Cavaliers new coaching staff. Thompson gets a tough matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have performed well against centers this season. He isn’t a safe option, but he does come with quite a bit of upside for a low price tag. It’s only a matter of time before his price skyrockets, so utilizing while he’s cheap is a great strategy.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
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