The Core
Karl-Anthony Towns- Towns has been one of the best players in fantasy basketball this season, and he gets an elite matchup tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies who are no longer an avoid in DFS. They have maintained a top-five pace through the pre and regular season, and this has quickly transformed from a matchup we hated to one we are actively looking to attack each night. We could get even more out of Towns than normal tongiht, as starting Point Guard, Jeff Teague, is looking questionable at best due to an illness. Town ranks third on the Wolves roster in assist%, behind Teague who might miss, and Shabazz Napier who is doubtful. If both miss, we should get a heavy-dose on Point Towns and he is my top overall play on Wednesday night.
Lou Williams- Towns and Lou Williams are going to be the first two players into my rosters tonight, and I don’t think it’s going to be close. Kawhi Leonard will be taking the night off for the Clippers, and the last time that happened, Lou Will slid into the starting lineup and posted 30 fantasy points in just 28 minutes of play — he and the rest of the starters were limited due to a blowout. Lou’s usage spikes to nearly 35% this season when he is on the floor without Leonard, and he should have no issue putting on a show against a Bucks team that was bottom-three in three point attempts allowed last season.
Malcolm Brogdon- Brogdon has been one of the biggest surprises this season, not that he wasn’t a good player before, he did win a Rookie of the Year award, but I’m not sure anyone expected him to look quite *this* good. Through the first two weeks of the season, Broggy owns over a 25% usage rate and over a 40% assist rate, while putting up over a 1.3 fantasy point per minute mark. He should be counted on to shoulder the offense once again tonight with both big men questionable again and Jeremy Lamb doubtful. The price looks expensive for him, but he has played up to the price and he is once again one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Value Plays
Jarrett Culver- The Wolves top pick could be in line for his first ever NBA start tonight due to the Jeff Teague situation I covered above. Even if Teague manages to play, Culver is extremely cheap on all sites and should see an uptick in playing time regardless with Shabazz Napier doubtful tonight. Culver is a raw prospect, but he is a willing scorer who already managed to hit 20 real points in a game on November 2nd — a game in which he played 26 minutes.
Pacers- The Pacers will once again be one of the best sources of value tonight with Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis questionable, and Jeremy Lamb and Edmond Sumner not expected to play. If both of the bigs are out, Goga Bitadze becomes the best value play on the slate again tonight, but if just Sabonis plays then I do have interest in him in tournaments even at an expensive price tag. I expect Aaron Holiday to log solid minutes with the two guards missing, he is playable in all formats for me, along with TJ Warren (and Brogdon).
Clippers- I already covered the Kawhi Leonard situation above, but aside from benefiting both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell, it opens up extrea minutes in the frontcourt for guys like JaMychal Green and Mo Harkless. Green in particular posted over 30 DK points across 27 minutes in the last game that Leonard rested for load management.
Troy Brown Jr- Brown saw limited minutes when he first returned to action this season, but he got up over 30 minutes in his last game and he has averaged nearly 1.2 fantasy points per minute this season. If we are expecting 30 minutes from him tonight (upside for more), that would give us around a 36 fantasy point projection for a player that is priced below $5,000 on DraftKings…
Note: I think there is the potential for enough value to fit in one of Andre Drummond, James Harden or Giannis alongside my core for tonight. If news breaks right, that will be the approach I’m taking.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
