The Core
James Harden- Harden is the easiest play on this slate, and I plan on having 100% of him across any lineup I make tonight. I talked on the livestream and in discord about how this is probably the worst priced slate I have ever seen, which is why my “core” of players tonight is so obvious and simple, We have an abundance of value, so fitting in Harden at the top should be no issue. He has lost some usage to Russell Westbrook this season, which won’t matter given that Westy is out tonight due to rest. If we look back at last season, Harden put up over 65 fantasy points per game in contests with Chris Paul out, and this is a sneaky good matchup with the Grizzlies ranking top-three in pace to begin the season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo- I don’t really need to go into details about why we want to play Giannis tonight, especially in cash games. He has pretty much the highest floor on this slate outside of Harden, and owns elite rates once again in 2019 with a 32% usage rate and 1.8 fantasy points per minute. With a ton of quality plays occupying the value tier tonight, stars and scrubs is again the move tonight in all formats.
Andre Drummond (DK)- Due to the presence of Gorgui Diend — read below — we won’t be able to roster Drummond in our cash game builds on FanDuel. However, on DraftKings, where Dieng has F eligibility, we have a lot more flexibility with our roster. I think that the common build tonight will be to grab Harden + one of Giannis/Drummond, but fitting in all three is easily doable if you’re comfortable punting at most other positions. Drum has dominated this season with Blake Griffin out, and he actually brought the ball up the floor a few times in their last game as well with Jackson/Frazier out. I LOVE him on FanDuel as a way to be different — most will play Dieng — but on DK I 100% plan on playing the three stud build tonight.
Value Plays
UPDATE: I’m adding Ky Bowman and Damion Lee to my cash game pool.
Gorgui Dieng- This is the easiest value play on the slate with Karl-Anthony Towns still out due to a suspension. Dieng had barely seen the floor this season when the Wolves opted to start him over the weekend and he responded with a near 40 fantasy point outing. He averaged over a fantasy point per minute last season, and is still too cheap on both sites should he draw another start tonight. He is another player I would want 100% of.
Pistons- We get another situation similar to Saturday night when Reggie Jackson, Tim Frazier and Derrick Rose were all out. This pushed extra minutes onto Bruce Brown, Langston Galloway and Luke Kennard. Brown ended up seeing a lot of time at Point Guard, and he posted over a 23% usage and assist rate. I’m not sure if we can count on 20 shot attempts from him again, but his price barely moved and he is a great source of value along with Galloway, who should be in line for 25+ minutes as well. Kennard is better suited for tourneys at his price point, in my opinion.
Jahlil Okafor (If Favors out)- This one is up in the air with Derrick Favors being listed as a game time decision. Once again we have a situation where DraftKings just didn’t move his price, he has played 29 and 34 minutes in each of the last two games with 30+ fantasy point production but is still $3.100? Why? This game is only a half hour after lock, so we should have time to pivot to someone in the later game should Favors get ruled in.
Tournament Plays
NOTE: With news that Isaiah Thomas will start I am adding him in here
Kyrie Irving- This one is relatively easy, everyone is focusing on Harden/Giannis/Drummond tonight which should leave Kyrie under-owned relative to his ceiling — especially in this matchup with the Pelicans. Both of these teams are running at a top-ten pace this season, and I love the idea of stacking this game altogether. Regardless, Irving will anchor my main GPP team tonight.
Chris Clemons- I will let it be known, I am huge fan of this kid. Clemons played at a small school (Campbell) but ended his college time as the all-time leading scorer in Big South history. He went undrafted, but earned a two way contract with the Rockets after dominating the Summer League. Similar to Isaiah Thomas, he can just flat out score and he showed that in his NBA debut pouring in 16 points on 4 threes made in 22 minutes. We don’t exactly know what his role will be, Austin Rivers is still on this roster, but we can project at least *some* minutes with Russell Westbrook out tonight, and he is a great pivot off of the Pistons chalk in GPPs.
Eric Paschall- Draymond Green and D’Angelo Russell were both out on Saturday for the Warriors, which gave the reigns to Eric Paschall who posted 34 DK points in 35 minutes of play. We get the same exact situation tonight, and Paschall along with other cheap Warriors like Glenn Robinson and Damion Lee could go a bit overlooked with everyone focusing on the Pistons and Dieng/Okafor. It’s also Paschall’s birthday for those who like narratives — even if that’s not my cup of tea — he is under-priced for the 24% usage rate he’s posted with Dray/Russell off the floor.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
