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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons have been slowing down the pace in their games. They rank only 19th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Washington Wizards, who rank fourth in the league in pace, though. Detroit also ranks 15th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Washington ranks 27th in defensive rating. The Pistons are +3 point underdogs in a game set at 224.5 points, but still feature an implied team total of 110.8 points.
Derrick Rose and Reggie Jackson have been ruled out, while Tim Frazier is doubtful to play. That was the situation in Detroit last game, and Bruce Brown was forced into 40 minutes. He scored 22 points with 2 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals (39 DK points) in that game. While that large of an outburst isn’t likely to happen again, Brown will be locked into massive minutes for a low price tag. He’ll be one of the highest owned players on the slate, and for good reason.
This slot came down to Luke Kennard or Langston Galloway. Kennard will feature more ownership, but I’m siding with the price tag of Galloway. He saw 28 minutes in his last game, scoring 12 points with 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal (20.25 DK points). While he isn’t as explosive of a fantasy option as Kennard, he doesn’t need to be for his price. On the season, Galloway is averaging 0.74 DK points per minute. He’ll find minutes in the mid-20s, and he makes one of the safest options on the slate tonight.
Andre Drummond is the most obvious option in this stack. He will become the focal point of the offense, and his usage rating is expected to sit around 28% tonight. He scored 25 points with 20 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 blocks, and 3 steals (74.5 DK points) in 39 minutes in his last game. Drummond also brought the ball up the floor at times throughout the game. He has had three consecutive 20/20 games, and he comes with quiet triple-double potential. He’s an elite option for a price tag only slightly north of $10K tonight. There is quite a bit of chalk on this slate, but Detroit will make the chalkiest team to stack because of their price tags.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies are two teams that love pushing the pace in games, as they rank first and third in the NBA in pace thus far. Houston also ranks fourth in offensive rating, while Memphis ranks 21st in defensive rating. The Rockets are -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 230 points, and they feature one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 117.8 points.
James Harden is the clear chalk of this slate. He’s going to be fully running the offense with Russell Westbrook resting. On the season, Harden is averaging 35.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 7.7 assists (35.3 DK points) in 34.6 minutes per game. He’s also shooting only 37.1% from the field and 21.5% from beyond the arc. Harden will return to his elite per-minute numbers from last season, and it’s nearly impossible to avoid him on this slate.
Eric Gordon has struggled early this season, shooting 27.4% from the field and 21.6% from beyond the arc. He’s averaging only 9.3 points and 1.2 rebounds (14.3 DK points) in 30.2 minutes per game. It’s now time to buy low. He’ll be forced into a larger offense role as the primary scorer behind Harden, while also see more opportunities for peripheral stats. Gordon is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.
P.J. Tucker continues to go overlooked as a player. He’s coming off of his worst game of the season, but only saw 25 minutes in a blowout loss to the Miami Heat. Prior to that game, he had scored between 27 and 37 DK points in each of his 5 games. He’ll be locked into 30+ minutes tonight, and Tucker has the ability to contribute in multiple categories. He doesn’t come with the pure upside others on this slate do, but he’s safe with enough upside to be considered in GPPs.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Damion Lee
There are a few extremely chalky salary relief options on this slate. I’m going to recommend a few guys that could end up lower owned. Lee has only seen 25+ minutes in 3 games this season, but he’s averaging 17.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists (29.4 DK points) in 26.7 minutes per game. He’s averaging 1.07 DK points per minute this season, as well.
Lee gets an interesting matchup against the Portland Blazers, who have struggled defensively this season. Portland currently ranks eighth in the NBA in pace, while also ranking 17th in the league in defensive rating. Lee is expected to continue to see minutes in the mid-20s tonight, as the Golden State Warriors deal with multiple injuries. He won’t be one of the chalkier salary relief options, but he comes with tremendous upside for a ridiculous price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Dillon Brooks
Brooks has seen plenty of ups and downs early this season. Through 5 games, he’s averaging 11.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.2 steals (21.6 DK points) in 26.2 minutes per game. He has scored 20+ DK points in each of his last 3 games, as well. He has flashed solid upside early this season, as well, scoring 30 DK points against the Brooklyn Nets.
Brooks gets an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets, who lead the NBA in pace, while ranking second last in defensive rating. They are allowing a league-high 127 points per game in 2019. Brooks could see closer to 30 minutes tonight, as Jaren Jackson Jr. is out for tonight. Brooks is a solid offensive option, and that should be on full display against a weak Houston defense.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
