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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics and Sacramento Kings have been slowing the pace down this season, ranking 18th and 27th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Boston also ranks 11th in the league in offensive rating, while Sacramento ranks 20th in defensive rating. The Celtics are -6.5 point favorites in a game set at 205 points, and they feature an implied team total of 105.8 points tonight.
Kemba Walker is doubtful to play tonight. That will lock Brad Wanamaker into big minutes once again. He has played 27+ minutes in each of his last 3 games. In those games, he’s averaging 12.7 points, 2.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.3 steals (25.2 DK points) in 28.0 minutes per game. On the season, he’s averaging 0.91 DK points per minute this season. Wanamaker isn’t a huge part of the offense, but he should continue to see roughly 8-10 shot attempts tonight. He’ll see minutes in the high-20s once again tonight, and he’s a safe option, who does come with some upside.
Jaylen Brown is far too cheap for his role in the offense with Walker injured. In the game Walker was injured, Brown scored 22 points with 10 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal (45.5 DK points). He has also scored 30+ DK points in 7 of his last 8 games, including 4 games with 43+ DK points. Brown is also averaging over 40 DK points per game in Boston, where he will be playing tonight. He’ll be locked into major minutes, and he makes an outstanding option for a surprisingly low price tag on this slate.
Jayson Tatum is another massive part of the offense. He’s averaging 22.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals (38.3 DK points) in 33.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Tatum has also recently flashed elite upside, scoring 51 and 47.25 DK points in 2 of his last 3 games. He’s expected to find minutes in the 30s tonight, and Tatum is another Boston player that is simply underpriced on this slate. This is an elite stack in cash games, although each player does come with some upside, as well.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Minnesota Wolves
The Minnesota Wolves and Atlanta Hawks have been pushing the pace this season. They currently rank third and 12th in the NBA in pace. Minnesota only ranks 22nd in the league in offensive rating, while Atlanta ranks 27th in defensive rating. The Wolves are -4 point favorites in a game set at 236 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 120 points.
Jeff Teague has been playing well recently. He’s averaging 12.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 9.6 assists (32.1 DK points) in 32.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Teague recently scored 43.5 DK points against the Utah Jazz, flashing tremendous upside. On the season, Teague is averaging 1.06 DK points per minute. He’s expected to play 30+ minutes tonight, making him a solid option on this slate.
Andrew Wiggins has been playing at an elite option recently. He’s averaging 43.8 DK points per game over his last 10 games. He has also flashed elite upside, scoring 57.5, 52.5, and 63.75 DK points in 3 of those games. Wiggins is an elite scorer, and this is an outstanding matchup for him. He generally is better considered for tournaments, but he can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Karl-Anthony Towns continues to dominate. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 27.4 points, 13.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.4 blocks (54.3 DK points) in 34.1 minutes per game. On the season, Towns is averaging a healthy 1.67 DK points per minute. He gets a great matchup against Atlanta, who has struggled against talented big men this season. HE’s one of the best plays on the slate tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls currently rank eighth in the NBA in pace. They get a matchup against the Portland Blazers, who rank ninth in the same category. Chicago only ranks 27th in the league in offensive rating, while Portland ranks 22nd in defensive rating. The Bulls are +1 point underdogs in a game set at 226 points, but they still boast an implied team total of 112.5 points.
Tomas Satoransky is far from a safe option, but he comes with tremendous upside. He has scored 34.75 and 34.5 DK points in 2 of his last 3 games. He also recently scored 49.75 DK points against the Atlanta Hawks. Satoransky comes with quiet triple-double potential, and he’ll see added opportunities for peripheral stats because of the pace of this game. Satoransky is also expected to find minutes in the mid-20s tonight.
Zach LaVine is coming off of an elite game, scoring 49 points with 4 rebounds and 1 steal (60.5 DK points). He shot 60.7% from the field and 76.5% from beyond the arc after struggling a bit in games prior to that. LaVine is a streaky player, who could potentially build off of this game. He comes with terrible risk, but also boasts as much upside as any player on the Chicago roster.
Wendell Carter Jr. is another boom or bust option. He has scored 37+ DK points in 3 of his last 5 games, while scoring fewer than 20 DK points in the other 2 games. Carter is a player that has struggled with fouls this season, but that hasn’t been the case at home. He is expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, and he comes with double-double potential, while flashing the ability to score in each of the five categories. Similarly to this entire stack, Carter comes with elite upside and terrible risk.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Goran Dragic
Dragic has been playing well for the Miami Heat. He’s averaging 15.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 4.7 assists (27.1 DK points) in 28.3 minutes per game. Dragic’s minutes have been inconsistent, but he recently scored 40 DK points against the Phoenix Suns. He comes with tremendous upside, as well, as he owns a 24.1% usage rating this season.
Dragic gets a plus matchup against the Charlotte Hornets. They currently rank 22nd in the NBA in pace and 25th in defensive rating. Dragic is expected to play minutes in the mid- to high-20s tonight. He comes with tremendous upside with a low price tag. Dragic makes an outstanding tournament option tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Wes Iwundu
I’m going back to the well here with Iwundu. He only scored 10.75 DK points in his last start, but he played 27 minutes in that game. Throughout his career, he is averaging 9.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.0 steal on a per-36 minute basis. Iwundu is only averaging 0.59 DK points per minute this season, but he hasn’t played enough minutes to truly find production on the court.
He gets a matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who rank 24th in the NBA in pace and 21st in defensive rating. Iwundu is expected to draw the start again tonight. He’ll likely see minutes in the mid- to high-20s, as well. Iwundu isn’t necessarily a safe option, but he comes with a low price tag, and can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
