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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Clippers have been pushing the pace this season. They rank third and 12th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Houston also ranks third in the league in offensive rating, while Oklahoma City ranks 12th in defensive rating. The Rockets are +5 point underdogs in a game set at 227 points, but they still feature an implied team total of 111 points.
Russell Westbrook hasn’t been overly efficient recently. He’s only shooting 31.5% from the field and 24.2% from beyond the arc in his last 4 games. With that being said, he’s averaging 22.3 shot attempts and 8.3 three-point attempts per game over that span. While he has struggled recently, Westbrook recently scored 68.75 DK points against the Portland Blazers. He hasn’t been producing elite peripheral stats this season, but he still features triple-double potential. Westbrook is a bit too cheap for his talent, regardless of losing usage to James Harden.
Danuel House continues to be entirely too cheap for Houston. He played 34 minutes in his return from injury. In that game, he scored 11 points with 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals (31.5 DK points). He only saw 21 minutes in his last game, failing to hit value. Houston is expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, though, and he’s averaging 0.82 DK points per minute in 2019. He can contribute in multiple categories, and Houston is far too cheap for the pace of this game.
Clint Capela has been playing at a high level recently. He’s averaging 14.3 points, 20.3 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks (46.1 DK points) in 34.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Capela has scored 40+ DK points in each of his last 6 games, including 3 games with 50+ DK points. Capela has recorded 20+ rebounds in each of his last 5 games, as well. He gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, who he scored 42 DK points against earlier this season. He’s still a bit too cheap on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Washington Wizards
The Washington Wizards currently rank fifth in the NBA in pace, while the Charlotte Hornets only rank 23rd this season. With that being said, Washington ranks second in the league in offensive rating. Charlotte ranks only 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating. The Wizards are -6 point favorites in a game set at 235 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 120.5 points.
Bradley Beal is the focal point of the Washington offense. He boasts a team-high 33% usage rating. He has also been playing well recently, averaging 38.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 1.0 steal (57.8 DK points) in 38.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Beal has scored 60+ DK points in 2 of his last 4 games. He is locked into heavy minutes, and he comes with tremendous upside tonight.
Davis Bertans has been heating up recently. He has scored 29+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games. In those games, he’s averaging 13.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists (29.2 DK points) in 28.3 minutes per game. Bertans is expected to play minutes in the high-20s tonight. His ability to shoot the three-point ball at a high percentage adds to his upside, specifically on DraftKings. He’s still a bit too cheap for his upside.
Mortiz Wagner is another high upside option for this stack. He has played 20+ minutes in each of his last 3 games. Wagner is averaging 18.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists (34.7 DK points) in only 23.7 minutes per game. He boasts elite upside, as he recently scored 58.25 DK points in only 25 minutes against the Minnesota Wolves. Wagner is splitting minutes at center, and his price tag doesn’t match his upside. This is a stack that should strictly be used in tournaments tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Clippers
This game has already been outlined as one of the fastest paced games on the slate tonight. The Los Angeles Clippers currently rank 11th in the NBA in offensive rating. The Houston Rockets rank 15th in the league in defensive rating. The Clippers are -5 point favorites in a game set at 227 points, and they own an implied team total of 116 points.
Lou Williams continues to play well for Los Angeles. He’s averaging 22.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.0 steal (36.8 DK points) in 34.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has flashed tremendous upside, scoring 50+ DK points in 2 of his last 8 games. Williams struggled from the field in his only matchup against Houston this season, but he still scored 34.25 DK points in that game.
Paul George is far too cheap for his upside. He’s averaging a healthy 1.61 DK points per minute through 4 games this season. He played 37 minutes in his last game, scoring 44.75 DK points with Kawhi Leonard on the court. George is expected to play 30+ minutes again tonight. He has proven that he can find success with Leonard on the court. This may be the last time we get PG13 this cheap, and he’s likely to go overlooked.
Los Angeles could use Ivica Zubac’s size against Houston. He has played 17+ minutes in 7 of his last 10 games. He’s averaging 25.3 DK points per game in those contests. Zubac has also flashed 40+ DK points in only 20 minutes. He isn’t a consistent option, but he’s extremely cheap, while boasting upside. Zubac is expected to play around 20 minutes tonight, and he’s an outstanding tournament option.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Darius Garland
Garland hasn’t been an elite option this season. He’s averaging 9.1 points, 1.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.1 steals (17.5 DK points) in 27.4 minutes per game. Garland has seen more scoring potential over his last four games, though. Over that span, he’s averaging 11.0 shot attempts and 5.5 three-point attempts per game. Garland is one of the best shooting rookies in the NBA, but we have yet to truly see his upside.
He gets a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who rank 20th in the NBA in pace and 17th in defensive rating. Garland is expected to play minutes in the mid- to high-20s tonight. He isn’t a safe option, but he’s absurdly cheap. There aren’t many elite salary relief options on this slate, and Garland can be used in tournaments for an extremely low price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Kelly Olynyk
Olynyk has found success recently, as he’s averaging 9.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.8 steals (22.4 DK points) in 23.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 20+ DK points in 7 of his last 9 games. Olynyk has also flashed upside over that span, scoring 31.25 DK points against the Denver Nuggets.
He gets a matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who rank eighth in the NBA in pace and 13th in defensive rating. They have also struggled against opposing bigs this season. Olynyk will find minutes in the mid-20s tonight. He is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
