The Core
Picking a Stud…or Both?- Tonight, for me anyways, comes down to whether or not you play Giannis Antetokounmpo or Luka Doncic…or both. I think both is doable if you really want to make it work, and both are spectacular plays in matchups with the Hawks and Warriors respectively. Giannis has averaged nearly 2 fantasy points per minute with Khris Middleton off the floor this year, and Doncic gets the Warriors who have been pretty much the worst defensive team in the league, especially against the three ball. They both have monster triple double upside, and they are separated by less than $1,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I have builds with each of them, and one with both, and I haven’t yet made a firm decision on how I want to play it. If you feel more comfortable only choosing one, right now I have a slight lean towards Giannis with the numbers he has without Middleton, but it’s extremely close. Be sure to check my Core Plays on the site for tonight to see where I end up!
Spencer Dinwiddie- Dinwiddie was in this section on Monday, and we have no choice but to go back to the well with both Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert out once again. His usage skyrockets to well over 30% with those two off the floor, and he owns a very respectable 1.2 fantasy point per minute number as well. This isn’t the best matchup from a pace perspective, but the game should be close (4 point spread) and the Hornets are not a good defensive team. I will have 100% of him tonight across all sites.
Dejounte Murray (DK)- Murray sticks out as a pretty apparent misprice on DraftKings, even when considering he is on a minutes limit. He has topped out at 26 minutes this season, but I think we should see around 25-26 from him tonight with Derrick White out. He’s been able to smash this season even on limited minutes due to his 1.25 fantasy point per minute ability and a 22% usage rate, and this is one of the better game environments on the slate — the Wizards are running at the 6th fastest pace in the NBA resulting in a 237 O/U. He also has a great individual matchup with Isaiah Thomas who is a known horrible defender.
Value Plays
Larry Nance Jr + Ante Zizic- The Cavs are going to be thin in the frontcourt once again tonight, even with Kevin Love returning, they will be without Tristan Thompson who is resting. This will open up extra minutes for both Nance and Zizic, we currently have Nance projected for 29 minutes, while Zizic is projected for 22. Nance has been around 0.9 fantasy points per minute this season and has a clear path to beating value, while Zizic is a bit more risky as he has seen action just twice all season, though it has come in the last two games (17 and 20 minutes).
Tim Hardaway Jr- You can add in Delon Wright here has well, as he should be in line for extra minutes tonight along with THJ, with Seth Curry out due to an illness. Hardaway hasn’t had the best season for the Mavericks this year, but he still has been able to maintain 0.75 fantasy point per minute numbers. He’s logged just 19 and 15 minutes in his last two games, but he should see anywhere in the mid-20’s tonight in the absence of Curry. This is also one of the better matchups for him to catch a ceiling-type output in — he’s shooting a career low from three this year while shooting six per game… the Warriors have surrendered the highest three point% to opposing teams this season. Perhaps he gets his shot on track tonight? We will find out, but the price is cheap enough to take the risk.
That’s about it for value right now, hopefully some more opens up before lock! If we don’t get any new injury news, we can add guys like Glenn Robinson and Garrett Temple to the value pool as well.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
