NBA DFS 11/20/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers and Washington Wizards will be playing in one of the fastest paced games on the slate, as these two teams rank eighth and sixth in the NBA in pace, respectively. Los Angeles also ranks fifth in the league in offensive rating, while Washington ranks 29th in the NBA in defensive rating. The Clippers are only -1 point favorites in a game set at 232 points, and LA features the highest implied total on the slate at 116.5 points.
Avery Bradley returned to action in the Clippers last game, but that didn’t affect Lou Williams. He has been playing solid minutes recently, scoring 30+ DK points in seven of his last nine games. He’s also averaging 18.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 6.8 assists (34.5 DK points) in 30.1 minutes per game. Williams has also posted a team-high 31.5% usage rating this season. Tobias Harris has also been an extremely consistent option throughout the season. He’s averaging 37.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days, and he has turned those into 21.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.0 steal (40.1 DK points) per game. He has scored 35+ DK points in each of his last seven games, as well. Furthermore, Harris needed only 29.4 minutes to score 37.3 DK points in his only matchup against the Wizards this season. Montrezl Harrell is the final part of this stack. He’s relatively cheap, but has scored 30+ DK points in six consecutive games. Harrell is also averaging 20.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.8 blocks, and 1.4 steals (40.7 DK points) in 30.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Harrell also dominated the Wizards in limited action, scoring 25 DK points in only 16.3 minutes. He should be locked into 25+ minutes tonight, making him a safe option to fill out the stack.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Orlando Magic have been slowing the pace down this season, ranking 21st in the NBA in pace in 2018. They’ll see an uptick in pace tonight, as they face off against the Toronto Raptors, who currently rank 11th in the league in pace. Orlando has struggled offensive rat times this season, ranking 17th in the league in offensive rating through 17 games. Toronto has also found plenty of defensive success, ranking seventh in the NBA in defensive rating this season. The Magic are +6.5 point underdogs in a game set at 219 points, giving them an implied total of 106.3 points.
Nikola Vucevic is going to command ownership tonight, but it’s impossible to avoid him in an Orlando stack. He has caught fire recently, scoring 45+ DK points in five of his last six games, including 50+ DK points in each of his last three. Over that span, he’s averaging 25.5 points, 11.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.2 steals (50.1 DK points) in 31.5 minutes per game. D.J. Augustin will feature less ownership, but he make an outstanding option for his price tag. He has been locked into big minutes, scoring 20+ DK points in eight of his last 10 games, including three games with 30+ DK points. Augustin has struggled with a low usage rating, but his consistency and upside for his current price tag make him a great option, even in a tough matchup. Evan Fournier is another player that has been playing well recently. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 15.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists (28.0 DK points) in 29.2 minutes per game. His price tag has dropped significantly, but he has scored 30+ DK points in seven of his last 10 games. Fournier comes with quite a bit of risk, but that’ll keep his ownership a bit lower tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Burke has seen inconsistent minutes this season, but he has performed well when given the opportunity. Through 14 games, he’s averaging 12.1 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in only 21.1 minutes per game. He has played 29 and 26 minutes in his last two games, though, scoring 40.75 and 30.75 DK points in those games. Overall, he’s averaging 27.5 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.5 steals in 27.5 minutes per game.
Burke is expected to play minutes in the mid-20s tonight, similarly to how many he has been playing over his last couple of games. He gets a decent matchup against the Portland Blazers, who have performed well against the point guard this season. With that being said, Burke will need to score if he hopes to keep New York in this game, making him a high upside tournament option.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Vonleh is another Knicks player that has found success in limited minutes this season. He’s averaging 7.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists (22.0 DK points) in 23.1 minutes per game. He has played extended minutes in each of his last two games, as well, playing 35 and 27 minutes. His price tag has not adjusted to his new minutes, although he was only able to score 21.25 and 16.0 DK points in those two games. Vonleh has also been a significantly better option at home, where he’s averaging 28.4 DK points per game, as opposed to 17.5 DK points per game on the road.
He gets a solid matchup against the Portland Blazers, who rank 19th in the NBA against power forwards. Vonleh is expected to play solid minutes once again, as he could see time in the high-20s or low-30s tonight. He makes a safe option for an extremely low price tag, and he can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
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