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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets and Portland Blazers will be playing in one of the fastest paced games on the slate, as these two teams rank third and 11th in the NBA in pace. Houston also ranks fourth in the league in offensive rating, while Portland ranks 19th in defensive rating. The Rockets are -7 point underdogs in a game set at 230.5 points, and they feature one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 118.8 points.
Russell Westbrook’s price tag continues to drop, but he still boasts a 30.7% usage rating this season. He’s averaging 21.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.5 steals (35.1 DK points) in 32.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. While those numbers don’t stick out, Westbrook is shooting only 39% from the field and 16.7% from beyond the arc. He isn’t the focal point of the offense, but he doesn’t have to be for his price tag. He’s in a similar situation to James Harden earlier this season, where his shooting struggles have dropped his price tag far too low.
Speaking of Harden, he continues to make an outstanding option, although he is no longer a simple plug-and-play. He’s averaging 44.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 2.2 steals (69.2 DK points) in 39.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 60+ DK points in each of his last 7 games, including 5 games with 70+ DK points. Harden’s scoring ability – 36+ points in 7 consecutive games – gives him one of the highest floors on the slate. There will likely be enough value to lock him into cash games on the slate tonight.
Danuel House is probable tonight. He saw his price tag drop from $5.3K before his injury to $3.7K tonight. Excluding the game he was injured in, Houston is averaging 32.3 DK points per game in his last 3 games. He has consistently been locked into 30+ minutes per game, and House has seen a decent offensive role. He can add rebounds, blocks, and steals on any given night, though, which adds to his floor and ceiling. House’s price tag is a bit ridiculous on this slate, and he should be used in all leagues.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks currently lead the league in pace, while the Chicago Bulls rank eighth in the NBA in the same category. Through 12 games, Milwaukee ranks eighth in the league in offensive rating, while Chicago ranks 14th in defensive rating. The Bucks are -8.5 point favorites in a game set at 230 points, and they boast the highest implied team total on the slate at 119.3 points.
Eric Bledsoe is coming off of a terrible game, but is still averaging 22.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.8 assists (39.4 DK points) in 29.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 40+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games. He’s also likely to take on a larger role in the offense with Khris Middleton injured. Bledsoe may go a bit overlooked cause of his struggles against the Indiana Pacers, but he makes an outstanding option tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo boasts a team-high 34.8% usage rating. He’s averaging 32.3 points, 14.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.8 steals (62.5 DK points) in 34.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Antetokounmpo has also scored 60+ DK points in 6 of his last 7 games, including an 81.5 DK point performance against the Los Angeles Clippers. He’ll feature ownership tonight, but it’s impossible to avoid him in a Milwaukee stack.
Brook Lopez is averaging 12.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks (24.0 DK points) in only 23.5 minutes per game. He has seen 25+ minutes in 3 of his last 5 games, and he’s averaging 35.7 DK points per game in those contests. Lopez is a player that is likely to go overlooked, but he could find success in a larger role with Middleton injured. He’s best suited for tournaments, though.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns currently rank ninth in the NBA in pace. The Boston Celtics only rank 18th in the league in pace. Phoenix also ranks fifth in the NBA in offensive rating, while Boston ranks 10th in defensive rating. The Suns are -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 227.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 115.5 points.
Ricky Rubio is a versatile option, who has been enjoying a solid season. He’s averaging 15.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists (38.5 DK points) in 31.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Rubio has been significantly better at home, where he’s averaging 1.28 DK points per minute. For comparison, he’s averaging only 0.95 DK points per minute on the road in 2019. Rubio quietly boasts triple-double potential, and he makes an outstanding option tonight.
Devin Booker boasts a team-high 28.4% usage rating this season. He’s averaging 24.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists (39.3 DK points) in 34.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Similarly to Rubio, Booker has been significantly better at home. He’s averaging 1.22 DK points per minute at home, as opposed to 0.99 DK points per minute on the road. He isn’t a safe option, but can be considered in tournaments tonight.
Aron Baynes is coming off of a terrible 7.25 DK point performance against the Atlanta Hawks. He struggled with fouls in that game, though. Prior to that, Baynes had scored 30+ DK points in 6 consecutive games. In those games, he averaged 37.5 DK points per game. Baynes gets a decent matchup against Boston, and he comes with tremendous upside. His price tag dropped surprisingly low, making him a solid option tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Dejounte Murray
Murray is an elite per minute player in the NBA. Through 11 games, he’s averaging 10.8 points, 7.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.4 steals (29.7 DK points) in only 22.3 minutes per game. Overall, he’s averaging 1.38 DK points per minute in 2019. Murray has struggled with fouls at times, though, which has kept him inconsistent. With that being said, he has scored 40+ DK points multiple times over his last 10 games, flashing elite upside.
Murray gets a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who only rank 20th in the NBA in pace this season. With that being said, they also rank 18th in the league in defensive rating. Murray is expected to continue to see minutes in the mid-20s tonight. While his lack of minutes is a major concern, Murray has proven that he can easily exceed value in limited time. Still, he’s best suited for tournaments on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Nassir Little
Little has seen limited action in 2019. He’s only averaging 8.2 points and 7.4 rebounds on a per-36 minutes basis. He has posted only 0.59 DK points per minute this season, as well. Little has drawn two consecutive starts, though. He has played 32 and 23 minutes in his last 2 games. Little only posted 16.5 and 17.25 DK points in those contests, though. With that being said, he shot only 27.8% from the field and 20% from beyond the arc, suggesting he boasts more upside than he has displayed thus far.
Little gets an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets, who rank third in the NBA in pace this season. They also rank 16th in the league in defensive rating. Little is expected to draw another start, while seeing 25-30 minutes tonight. He isn’t the safest option on this slate, but his low price tag makes him an outstanding tournament option in this particular matchup.
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