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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics have been playing at a slightly below average pace this season, ranking 16th and 18th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Golden State only ranks 19th in the league in offensive rating, while Boston ranks 11th in defensive rating. The Warriors are only +7.5 point underdogs in a game set at 223.5 points, but they still own an implied team total of 108 points.
D’Angelo Russell has posted a 32.6% usage rating this season. He has been a massive part of the offense since returning from injury, averaging 34.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 1.8 steals (54.6 DK points) in 34.2 minutes per game in those contests. Russell is averaging 23.5 shot attempts, 9.5 three-point attempts, and 7.3 free throw attempts per game in those contests, as well. Russell is still surprisingly cheap, as he has scored 48+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games, including an 82.75 DK point performance against the Minnesota Wolves.
Draymond Green is the other Golden State player that is mispriced tonight. He returned from injury two games ago. In those games, he’s averaging only 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists (20.3 DK points) in 25.2 minutes per game. Green is averaging 0.99 DK points per minute this season, though, and he’s expected to play roughly 30 minutes tonight. Green boasts the potential to contribute in each of the five categories at a high level. He also enters this game with triple-double potential. That isn’t something that is easy to find for his price tag. These two Golden State players are clearly mispriced, and this is only a two player stack tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Minnesota Wolves
The Minnesota Wolves and Washington Wizards have been pushing the pace this season, ranking fourth and seventh in the NBA in pace, respectively. Minnesota only ranks 17th in the league in offensive rating this season, while Washington ranks 29th in the NBA in defensive rating. The Wolves are -7 point favorites in a game set at 242.5 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 124.8 points.
Jeff Teague returned from an illness in Minnesota’s last game. He played 23 minutes, scoring 18 points with 2 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals (33.5 DK points). He’s expected to see another bump in minutes tonight, and he’s averaging 1.11 DK points per minute this season. Teague only needed 27.4 minutes to score 46 DK points in his only matchup against Washington this season, and he’s far too cheap on this slate.
Andrew Wiggins is tied with Karl-Anthony Towns for a team-high 28.3% usage rating this season. He has caught fire recently, averaging 30.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.0 steal (49.4 DK points) in 36.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 40+ DK points in each of his last 5 contests, including a 63.75 DK point performance against the Golden State Warriors. Wiggins could lose some value with Teague back, but he’s locked into big minutes, and is still reasonably priced for this matchup.
Karl-Anthony Towns has seen a few ups and downs this season, but he’s averaging 1.72 DK points per minute through 9 games. Since returning from his suspension, Towns is averaging 24.6 points, 12.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1.4 blocks (52.1 DK points) in 34.1 minutes per game. He gets a plus matchup against Washington tonight, and Towns is an option that can be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Isaiah Thomas
Thomas has cooled off a bit recently. Still, he’s averaging 13.9 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists (26.9 DK points) in only 24.1 minutes per game. Thomas ranks second on the Washington Wizards team with a 25.3% usage rating. Even with his recent struggles, he is coming off of one of his better games of the season, scoring 30.25 DK points against the Boston Celtics.
Thomas gets a great matchup against the Minnesota Wolves. They rank fourth in the NBA in pace and 14th in defensive rating. Minnesota also ranks 23rd in the NBA against point guards. Thomas has played 30 and 29 minutes in his last 2 games, and he’s expected to play roughly 30 minutes tonight. Thomas can be considered in all leagues with the plus matchup tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jackson has played 29+ minutes in each of his last 4 games. He’s averaging 19.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists (31.8 DK points) in 31.8 minutes per game. Jackson has been able to control his fouls recently, but that has also limited his block potential. He has scored 30+ DK points in each of his last 3 games, though, while flashing 45 DK point upside.
Jackson gets a tough matchup against the Utah Jazz, who rank 25th in the NBA in pace and second in defensive rating. He’s expected to see around 30 minutes tonight, though. Jackson has always performed well on a per-minute basis, regardless of matchup. He’s entirely too cheap for his upside on this slate, and he can also be considered in cash games.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
