The Core
Andre Drummond- This is a really weird slate, and I expect it to be really chalky which kinds of dampens the outlook on cash games for me. One player I’m certain I want to start my cash game builds with is Andre Drummond, who will be without Blake Griffin again tonight. Drum average 50 fantasy points per game without Griffin a season ago, and he has bumped his per minute rate up to nearly 1.5 ppm this season. The Bulls are a great matchup, they have been owned on the boards again this season and actually have the worst rebound% in the NBA through the first week and half of the season. As long as he is under $10K on DK, he will be one of my top targets without Griffin in the lineup.
Value Plays
Celtics- The reason I’m listing only one player in the core section, is because we got hit with all the Celtics injury news. Not only is Enes Kanter out, but Robert Williams is doubtful and Jaylen Brown is also expected to miss again. The Celtics were already running a tight rotation to begin with, but this shortens things even more and makes all of Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Daniel Theis and Gordon Hayward potentially chalky. The reason I hate this slate so much is because it’s pretty hard to avoid any of these given the matchup with the Knicks and the expected minutes, so simply playing two or three of them in cash games makes sense. If you want to differentiate, you can pivot to the likes of Kemba Walker, Semi Ojeyle and Grant Williams in tournaments.
Warriors- Stephen Curry is out tonight along with Jacob Evans, which is going to open the door for a lot of the Warriors young players to soak up some playing time. All of the Celtics are in better spots than these guys, but they are mostly cheap and they deserve consideration in all formats. If I could rank the Warriors players, for me, it would be Eric Paschall, Jordan Poole and Alec Burkes in that order.
Derrick White- White is probably my favorite overall value play tonight, as he should be starting for the Spurs tonight in place of Dejounte Murray. DraftKings actually priced him above $5,000, so I’m hoping that coupled with the Celtics players keeps overwhelming ownership away. The Warriors have been a horrible defensive team this season and I don’t see that changing soon, and White has been really productive averaging over 1 fantasy point per minute. The minutes should be solid regardless of game-script in this contest, making him a solid bet to crush value.
Tournament Plays
Kyrie Irving- I’ve debated playing Kyrie in cash games all day, he might be my favorite overall play on this slate. He will never be “safer” than guys like James Harden and Russell Westbrook, but he also doesn’t have to share the floor with a dominant player right now and this is by far the juiciest game of the night with a massive 244 O/U. The Rockets are fresh off giving up over 130 points in regulation to the Wizards, and they have shown no interest in playing defense this season at all, while also playing at a top-five pace. Kyrie sports a 36% usage rate this season, 2% less than Harden, while his point per minute mark is actually better than both Westbrook and Harden this season. We know that Uncle Drew likes to take over down the stretch, and this game should be close — the spread is just 4 points.
Tristan Thompson- TT has continued his solid play from last season, and comes into tonight with 40+ DK points in each of his last three games. The matchup with the Pacers got a lot softer with Myles Turner going down, and this is a team that already was bottom-three in rebaound% with Turner on the floor. Thompson has double-doubled in every game so far this season, and I expect another one tonight in a plum matchup. Andre Drummond should dominate the ownership at this position, making him a great leverage play in GPPs.
Derrick Rose- Finally, I simply can’t ignore Derrick Rose tonight, who gets the highly sought after DOUBLE NARRATIVE game against the Chicago Bulls. I’m not a narrative guy, I’m mostly trolling, but is it crazy to expect a guy owning a 35% usage rate to go off in his hometown? Yes, Derrick Rose is under $6K, but owns a 36% usage rate! He is nursing a sore hamstring, so I doubt we see higher then 25 minutes from him, but at just over 1.2 points per minute, he is a solid bet to beat value…and we know there is upside for more if his shot is falling.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
