What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “TOUCHDOWN” to get 20% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics and New York Knicks have both been playing at below average paces in 2019. These teams rank 17th and 24th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Boston also ranks 12th in offensive rating, while New York ranks 18th in defensive rating. The Celtics are -10.5 point favorites in a game set at 212 points, giving them an implied team total of 111.3 points tonight.
Jaylen Brown has been ruled out for Boston. Marcus Smart is likely to be locked into big minutes once again. In his last game without Brown, Smart saw 38 minutes, scoring 19 points with 4 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1 steal (37.5 DK points). He needed only 28 minutes against New York to score 32.5 DK points earlier this season, and he’s likely to be the highest owned player on the slate. Keep in mind, Smart doesn’t boast an impressive usage rating, but his ability to contribute in multiple categories make him a safe option tonight.
Jayson Tatum has been mispriced the entire season. He boasts a 27.2% usage rating through 4 games. He has turned that into 21.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 2.3 steals (41.3 DK points) in 36.1 minutes per game. Tatum shot 29.4% from the floor and 28.6% from beyond the arc in his first game against New York, but still scored 36.25 DK points. He has been slightly better in Boston in limited games this season, and Tatum is a lock in a Boston stack tonight.
Daniel Theis is the final option in this stack. He’s expected to find solid minutes, as Enes Kanter and Robert Williams have both been ruled out tonight. Thies is averaging 10.2 points, 10.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 2.7 blocks on a per-36 minute basis this season. He saw 28 minutes in his last game, scoring 11 points with 9 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 block (25.75 DK points). He’s entirely too cheap for his projected role tonight, and he’s another safe option for Boston on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets and Brooklyn Nets have been pushing the pace this season. They rank second and seventh in the NBA in pace through four games. Houston also leads the league in offensive rating, while Brooklyn ranks 22nd in defensive rating. The Rockets are -4.5 point favorites in a game set at a ridiculous 244 points. They boast the highest implied team total on the slate at 124.3 points.
Russell Westbrook’s price tag still sits below $10K. He has scored 50+ DK points in each of his 4 games this season, though. Overall, he’s averaging 22.5 points, 12.0 rebounds, 10.3 assists, and 1.5 steals (58.5 DK points) in 34.1 minutes per game. Westbrook boasts a 26.8% usage rating, and his ability to add peripheral stats to his line continue to make him one of the best fantasy options in the NBA.
James Harden has posted a 38.7% usage rating this season. He’s averaging 36.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 8.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (57.2 DK points) in 36.4 minutes per game. Harden is only shooting 37.9% from the field and 22.2% from three-point range, though. He shot significantly better in his last game, posting 79.25 DK points in 37 minutes against the Washington Wizards. Harden continues to be an elite option, even for $11K tonight.
There are a few players that can be considered here, but P.J. Tucker makes the most sense. He has performed well through 4 games, posting 14.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.5 steals (31.0 DK points) in 35.5 minutes per game. Tucker generally sees open shots, while adding peripheral stats to his lines. His ability to record those stats makes an elite option in a game with this pace. He’s still far too cheap, making it easy to get Westbrook and Harden on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Brooklyn Nets
As mentioned above, the Brooklyn Nets and Houston Rockets are two of the faster paced teams in the NBA thus far. Brooklyn currently ranks 10th in the league in offensive rating, as well. Houston has struggled defensively, ranking 29th in the NBA in defensive rating this season. The Nets are +4.5 point underdogs in a game set at 244 points, but they still feature an implied team total of 119.8 points.
Kyrie Irving enters this game with a 35.8% usage rating. He has found tremendous success in 2019, posting 35.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.5 steals (57.8 DK points) in 33.4 minutes per game. He has scored 50+ DK points in 3 of his 4 games, including a 76 DK point performance in his Brooklyn debut. Irving may be one of the higher owned Brooklyn players, but he’s still going to be a bit low owned compared to other point guards tonight.
Spencer Dinwiddie is averaging 25.3 minutes per game, turning those into 17.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists (30.1 DK points) per game. He has played 27+ minutes in each of his last 3 games, though, scoring 30+ DK points in each of those games. Dinwiddie quietly boasts a 31% usage rating in 2019, as well. He’s going to go overlooked as “Irving’s backup,” but he comes with plenty of upside for his current price tag.
DeAndre Jordan got off to a slow start in his Brooklyn debut, but he has looked outstanding over his last two games. Over that span, he’s averaging 7.0 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks (28.4 DK points) in 23 minutes per game. Similarly to Dinwiddie, Jordan is seen as Jarrett Allen’s backup, although he played more minutes than him in Brooklyn’s last game. It isn’t often you can get a stack low owned in a game set at 244 points. We have to take advantage of it when it does happen.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Damion Lee
Lee is a boom or bust option without a known role in the Golden State Warriors rotation. He’s averaging 8.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.0 assist (16.9 DK points) in only 15.0 minutes per game this season. He saw 28 minutes against the New Orleans Pelicans, scoring 23 points with 11 rebounds and 2 assists (42.25 DK points). Lee has always found success on a per-minute basis, but his minutes are far from guaranteed, as he saw only 11 minutes in his only game after his breakout.
Lee gets an interesting matchup against the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They rank 12th in the NBA in pace this season, while also ranking 13th in defensive rating. San Antonio no longer features a defense that should simply be avoided. Golden State may be in need of scoring off of their bench with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson injured. Lee fits the bill. He should strictly be used in GPPs because of his unknown minutes, but he has the potential to break the slate for his price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Eric Paschall
Paschall has adjusted quickly to the NBA. Through 4 games in his rookie season, he’s averaging 13.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists (21.4 DK points) in 28.1 minutes per game. He was asked to play 38 minutes in his last game, rewarding the Golden State Warriors with 20 points, 3 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 1 steal (29.75 DK points). Paschall is expected to play 30+ minutes tonight, as the Warriors are dealing with a plethora of injuries. He comes with extreme versatility, somewhat making him a cheaper version of Draymond Green.
Paschall gets a matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who were outlined above.. With all of the value on this slate, Paschall will likely go overlooked, but his best games are yet to come. He’s a solid option, although his price tag is on the rise.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
