The Core
Steph Curry- People might be more inclined to play Russell Westbrook or James Harden than Curry tonight, but I’ll do my best to explain why it’s Curry that I’m siding with. For starters. the spread on this game is four points, it’s expected to be a close game, and the only reason we haven’t seen a monster game from him yet this season is that they’ve been getting blown out. The metrics look elite again this season, he owns over a 30% usage rate with just south of 1.5 fantasy points per minute — as you can tell, the minutes have been the issue — he’s played just 30 in each game, instead of the 35-36 he would see in a close contest. The Pelicans are playing at one of the fastest paces in the league, and this sets up as the perfect spot for Curry to erupt so long as the Warriors can keep the game close.
Andre Drummond- Dummond has been a fixture of this article so far this season, and that won’t change tonight against the Pacers with Blake Griffin still sidelined for the Pistons. Many reading this may have been burned by Drummond on Saturday night, but he didn’t have a bad game, he was simply in foul trouble. He logged just 25 minutes due to the whistle after totals of 41 and 37 in his first two games, so we should be back to another 35+ tonight with a near 1.5 fantasy point per minute output.
Brandon Ingram- I have always been a Brandon Ingram truther, and now it looks like the time has come for him to ascend and play up to his potential. He’s posted a near 28% usage rate this season, and is contributing across the board to all categories. This has resulted in nearly 50 fantasy points per game this season, and now he matches up with the Warriors who have shown no ability to defend whatsoever this season. This game has the biggest total on the slate by a good margin, and grabbing as many pieces from it as I can is the optimal route for me on Monday night.
Value Plays
Mario Hezonja- Hezonja takes the top value play award tonight, as he should be thrust into a big role for the Blazers tonight with Zach Collins out. This Portland team is extremely thin in the frontcourt with Jusuf Nurkic, Pau Gasol and now Collins out — with Al-Farouq Aminu and Meyers Leonard no longer on the team. Hezonja has never been an elite fantasy producer, but he has also been above 0.65 fantasy points per minute each of the last few season and now will simply have to log minutes.
Marquese Chriss- Chriss started for the Warriors last night in place of Kevon Looney, and that should remain the case tonight as well. It may look like Omari Spellman was the better play last night, but Chriss was in foul trouble and then — similar to Curry — wasn’t needed much in the 4th quarter due to the blowout. I always prefer starting players in this situation, but I do think Spellman is in play in addition to Chriss, and you could potentially pair them together if need be.
Pelicans- Jrue Holiday is questionable once again tonight, and if he were to miss this game that would open up some strong value with both Josh Hart and Kenrich Williams. Both played over 30 minutes of action with Holiday out over the weekend, and they are easy to plug in alongside the above plays to get to a stars and scrubs lineup on DraftKings.
Tournament Plays
Montrezl Harrell- It’s only been three games, but the Hornets have been absolutely smashed by big men this season, including the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis and Lauri Markkanen. Sure, those are elite players, but the Hornets have been absolutely crushed on the glass and that bodes well for Harrell who is averaging 7 rebounds per game this season. Harrell was a fantasy beast last season, and he is being used much more heavily this season averaging over 31 minutes per game. He’s one of my favorite plays on tonight’s slate.
If Reggie Jackson is out, Derrick Rose will be my #2 tournament play tonight, and enter the cash game conversation as well.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
