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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Sacramento Kings
There isn’t a large enough sample size to trust for pace, offensive, or defensive rating early this season. The Sacramento Kings are fully expected to play at one of the fastest paces in the league, though. They get a matchup against the Portland Blazers, who slowed the pace down in their only game in 2019, and could look to do that more often than not this season. The Kings are +2.5 underdogs in a game set at 226.5 points, but they still feature an implied team total of 112 points tonight.
Marvin Bagley injured his thumb against the Phoenix Suns, opening value in the Sacramento frontcourt. Nemanja Bjelica will likely be the highest owned player on the slate, as he is near the minimum price tonight. Last season, he averaged 14.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks on a per-36 minute basis. Bjelica also averaged 0.97 fantasy points per game in 2018. He’s expected to play around 25 minutes tonight, and he’s arguably the easiest play on this slate.
Richaun Holmes only played 17 minutes in his first game with the Kings, but he’s expected to find minutes in the 20s tonight. Last season, he posted 17.4 points with 10.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.4 blocks on a per-36 minute basis. While he won’t get nearly that many minutes tonight, Holmes averaged a healthy 1.09 fantasy points per minute last season. Even in limited minutes, he could hit value because of his ridiculous price tag.
Dewayne Dedmon is the final piece of this stack. He only played 14 minutes in Sacramento’s opener, but the Kings will need his size to keep up with Hassan Whiteside. Dedmon flashed in 2018, averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute. In only 25.1 minutes per game, he averaging 10.8 points with 7.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks. This stack is extremely cheap, and will allow you to use the higher end options on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets are a team that is expected to push the pace a bit in 2019, and that was the case in their only game. They get a matchup against the New York Knicks, who are also looking to run more this season. The Nets are -8.5 point favorites in a game set at 227.5 points, and they possess the highest implied team total on the slate at 118 points.
Kyrie Irving is the clear-cut focal point of the Brooklyn offense with Kevin Durant injured. He took 33 shot attempts in their first game to go along with 10 free throws. Irving was able to turn those into 50 points with 8 rebounds, 7 assists, and 1 block over 38 minutes. While his 40.6% usage rating isn’t sustainable, Irving comes with as much upside as anyone, as he’s the focal point of the team, while being locked into big minutes.
Caris LeVert also found success in that game, scoring 20 points with 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals over 37 minutes. He ranked second on the team with 19 shot attempts, and saw a 28.7% usage rating. He’s the clear second option behind Irving, and this duo has proven that they can work well off of each other.
Taurean Prince doesn’t have the offensive potential as the other two members of this stack, but his ability to add peripherals makes him a solid option for a reasonable price tag. He scored 15 points to go along with 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block against Minnesota. He also ranked third on the team with 13 shot attempts. Most importantly, Prince led the team with 41 minutes. The Nets aren’t a team that gives their bench a ton of minutes, and this trio comes with as much upside as any stacking option on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Oklahoma City Thunder
It’ll be interesting to see how fast the Oklahoma City Thunder play in 2019, but I’m expecting them to slow the pace down for the most part. They get a matchup against the Washington Wizards, who will likely be looking to push the pace, though. Oklahoma City is a -8 point favorite in a game set at 219.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 113.8 points.
The Thunder are in one of the weirdest spots in the NBA. They have too much talent to be rebuilding, but not enough talent to be attempting a true playoff run. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks to be a major part of their future, and it would be wise to get him as many minutes as possible. That was the case in their first game of the season, as he turned 37 minutes into 26 points with 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. SGA comes with more potential for peripheral stats than he displayed in that game, but it seems as if he may take over as the focal point of the offense. He attempted a team-high 23 shots from the field, and he’s a player that comes with tremendous upside because of his 35+ minutes.
Chris Paul is another outstanding option, as he essentially runs the offense. He was second on the team with 15 shot attempts, scoring 22 points with 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal. CP3 boasts quiet triple-double potential, and he has averaged a double-double six times throughout his career. His price tag is a bit low for his upside in this matchup, and he may be the safest option on the Oklahoma City team tonight.
Danilo Gallinari played 28 minutes in the Thunder’s first game this season. He scored 21 points with 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal. Similarly to Paul and SGA, he’s a solid scoring option for the Thunder, while flashing the ability to add peripheral stats to his line. He comes with a bit more risk because of his unknown role in the offense and lack of guaranteed minutes. Still, his ownership is likely to stay low, and he makes a solid option in this stack.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Shabazz Napier
Napier has never been given big minutes on a season long basis, but he averaged 1.03 fantasy points per minute for the Brooklyn Nets last season. He shot only 1-7 from the field in his first game for the Minnesota Wolves, scoring 5 points with 1 rebound, and 7 assists over 21 minutes. He’s expected to see a usage rating north of 20%, while playing 20-25 minutes tonight.
Napier gets a plus matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, who are likely to struggle defensively this season, while also pushing the pace. Napier’s scoring potential gives him plenty of upside on a nightly basis, and he’s near the minimum price on DraftKings tonight. Napier should only be considered in tournaments, but he comes with quite a bit of upside for his price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Frank Kaminsky
Kaminsky performed well on a per minute basis last season, averaging 1.01 fantasy points per minute over 47 games. He played 19 minutes in his first game for the Phoenix Suns, totaling 9 points with 4 rebounds and 2 assists. He’s expected to see around 22-25 minutes with Deandre Ayton suspended tonight, though.
Kaminsky gets a tough matchup against the Denver Nuggets, but he’s near the minimum price on DraftKings. He has proven that he can score fantasy points when given the time, and the suspension of Ayton makes him a solid fantasy option. With some of the other cheap bigs on this slate, Kaminsky may be best suited for tournaments.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
