The Core
Karl-Anthony Towns- KAT is my number one overall play on this slate, and luckily with it being the first *real* night of the season, we are awarded plenty of pricing inefficiencies to exploit, making him an easy fit on both sites. Once Jimmy Butler was traded last season, Towns went on an absolute fantasy rampage averaging over 1.5 fantasy points per minute — playing 33 minutes per game. It’s no stretch to think that his best overall season (for fantasy) is upon us, and he also has a solid matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, who were smashed by Center’s all of 2018. Sure, they signed DeAndre Jordan in the offseason, but Towns should easily post another 30% usage rate season and his ability to step outside and shoot looks to have taken another jump heading into this season.
Luka Doncic- Everyone that played NBA regularly on DraftKings last season got a “year in review” email earlier this week, highlighting your season. The thing that stuck out to me in that email was that Doncic was my most-used player last season, and I don’t really see that changing much this season as long as they continue to price things the way they are — KAT is the most expensive player on the slate at only $10,100. The thing that I took away the most from the preseason was that Doncic and his new teammate Kristaps Porzingis fit extremely well together, and they are going to dominate the usage for this team. Doncic was 4th overall in usage rate in the preseason (min. 35 minutes) and Porzingis finished inside the top-20 as well. I think stacking them together will certainly be viable a lot of nights this season, especially tonight against a bad Wizards team.
Andre Drummond (DK)- Unfortunately, we can’t play multiple C’s on FanDuel, so that conversation starts and ends with Towns for me in cash games. On DK, however, we are awarded a UTIL spot which we can occupy with Andre Drummond, who will be without Blake Griffin tonight. Drummond absolutely beasted in 2018 with Griffin off the floor, averaging over 50 fantasy points per game.
Markieff Morris- Morris became one of the top value plays on the slate once we got word he will start for Blake Griffin, and he is one of the reason’s it’s going to be so easy to jam in Towns (and Luka) should you agree with me tonight. He should be in line for heavy-minutes given that the Pacers will be playing both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, and with only Christian Wood behind him, they have nobody else to really throw out there. On FanDuel, there is enough value that he isn’t a true *must play*, but on DK where he is under $4,000 it’s tough to avoid him.
Value Plays
Tyler Herro- If you’ve been living under a rock, you haven’t yet noticed just how good Tyler Herro was in the summer league in the preseason. He was so good that he started to play alongside Butler in the preseason, and the path to minutes became a lot clearer once the Heat suspended Dion Waiters for tonight’s game. He averaged just south of 1 full fantasy point per minute in the preseason, and he has upside for more than that each night given his ability and willingness to shoot the basketball. He’s just $100 off the minimum price on FanDuel, and is playable in all formats.
Ish Smith- Isaiah Thomas being out for Washington is one of the more underrated injuries of the day. With both him and John Wall out, that opens the door for Ish to start and play over 30 minutes tonight against the Mavericks. Smith is never a high-upside fantasy play, but he averaged over 0.75 fantasy points per minute each of the last two seasons, making it fairly easy for him to eclipse value at his price with his expected role tonight. Brad Beal can’t score every point, right?
Zach Collins- I really like this spot for Zach Collins tonight, who is coming off a really solid preseason and is set for a nice increase in playing time with Al-Farouq Aminu and Meyers Leonard now out of Portland. They did add Hassan Whiteside in the Leonard trade, but that opens the door for Collins to take the starting PF job, while also logging backup Center minutes while Pau Gasol is out. Rookie PJ Washington is expected to be chalk at PF on FanDuel given his near minimum price-tag, making Collins and Maxi Kleber (Dwight Powell is out) elite pivots at lower-ownership.
Pistons (DraftKings pricing)- I don’t feel great about it being the first slate of the year and we are all-in on the Pistons, but that’s what this slate has come to with their pricing on DK. All of Markieff Morris, Derrick Rose and Luke Kennard are under-priced, and it will be tough not to lock in two or three Pistons players in optimal lineups.
Tournament Plays
Terry Rozier- Rozier is affordably-priced in the mid-tier tonight despite a strong matchup with the Chicago Bulls. I think the Hornets might actually be the worst team in the league, they really have nobody, but that should only mean good things for Rozier and his fantasy production. He posted a 23% usage rate and a huge 43% assist percentage in the preseason, and he should have free reign to do whatever it is he wants this season, given the Hornets depleted roster.
Domantas Sabonis- Sabonis has been a true FPPM beast the past few seasons, and is fresh off a contract extension in Indiana. He will now be starting alongside Myles Turner rather than coming off the bench, and there have been some reports that they want the offense to flow through him more this season. Regardless, he should now be locked into 30 or more minutes nightly, and will be a staple of my lineups to begin the season.
Marvin Bagley- Bales’ boy Marvin Bagley is set up in a great spot tonight against the Phoenix Suns — this game features the highest O/U on the slate at 232 and the Kings are slated as just 1.5 point favorites. Bagley had an exceptional rookie season, and looked even better (as expected) in the preseason this year. His athleticism and ability to run the floor fits well with the expected environment of this game, and he does appear a bit under-priced on DraftKings at $7,200.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
