My Core
James Harden- Harden is the easy choice for top stud tonight with Russell Westbrook out for the Houston Rockets. As you would imagine, he sees a monster bump with Westbrook off the floor this season — his usage rises to nearly 47% while the per minute production is over 1.8 points per minute. Eric Gordon is back and will eat into that a tiny bit, but the numbers don’t really change even with him on the floor and it’s clear it will be hard to avoid Harden tonight in any format. That being said, it does present us with an opportunity to buy someone like Luka Doncic in GPPs at lower ownership, but in cash games I will look to not over-think things.
Clint Capela- I’m also looking to build around Harden’s teammate, Clint Capela. Capela doesn’t get the huge usage/per minute bump that Harden does with Westbrook off the floor, but he does get the opportunity to do more offensively while playing in the highest O/U on the slate. The Rockets have by far the highest implied team total on the slate at 122, and are missing someone in Westbrook who routinely dominates the ball and offense. The Hawks are not a good team defensively, especially against big men, and Capela could actually benefit from Westbrook being out in the rebounding department. Westy is second on the team in rebounds per game, and third in rebounding chances per game. This could be a spot for a big double-double, and we are getting him below $8,000 in salary.
Kyle Lowry- I’ll conclude today’s core with Kyle Lowry, who is fresh off back-to-back 46+ DraftKings point performances. We know that Fred VanVleet will continue to be out for the Raptors in addition to Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Norman Powell. Taking those players off the floor results in a 31% usage rate and over 1.4 fantasy points per minute for Lowry, who has another sparkling matchup with the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte ranks ninth-worst in points per possession allowed to pick and roll ball handlers this season, Lowry is among the NBA leaders in that category as well as first on this Raptors team. He should probably be over $9,000 in his current role, so we are still receiving a “discount”.
Value Plays
Mitchell Robinson- I don’t feel great about playing a Knicks player on a nine game slate, but we might be forced into it with Julius Randle and Marcus Morris slated to miss this game. The Knicks will need Robinson’s size against Rudy Gobert, and these injuries might force them into actually giving him big minutes. He’s averaging just 22 per game this season, and is priced according to that, despite being projected for over 26 tonight. He continues to be the best per minute player on this Knicks team, and is a relatively easy cash game play for only $5,000.
Michael Porter Jr- We’re projecting Porter Jr to start in place of Will Barton tonight, but even if he ends up coming off the bench again he is projected for around 25 minutes of action against the Dallas Mavericks. MPJ is an aggressive scorer who has been a point per minute player this season, and is severely under-priced at only $3,800.
Josh Hart- I absolutely love this play tonight, because I expect the masses to be scared off after his 14 point dud on Tuesday night. Hart was tagged with two fouls within the first three minutes of action, which really derailed his night from the get-go. He’s right at 0.9 fantasy points per minute with Jrue Holiday off the floor this season, and should start in his place again tonight. He still logged 27 minutes despite his early foul issues, and I’m all over him if we can project similar minutes for Wednesday.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
