Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems for DraftKings! Below, I will discuss my NBA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Washington Wizards
The Washington Wizards and Denver Nuggets rank third and 30th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Washington also ranks sixth in the league in offensive rating, while Denver ranks 11th in defensive rating. The Wizards are +12 point underdogs in a game set at 222 points, and they own an implied team total of 105 points tonight.
Washington is dealing with a plethora of injuries, which has been the case for quite some time. This stack is assuming Bradley Beal is ruled out. Ish Smith has been playing well recently, averaging 13.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (25.2 DK points) in 27.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He was the beneficiary of Isaiah Thomas getting ejected in his last game, but Smith has scored 23+ DK points in each of his last 4 games, while flashing 40 DK point upside. Smith isn’t a “must start” like the next two players in this stack, though.
Jordan McRae has taken on a massive role in the offense without others producing. He’s averaging 22.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists (37.6 DK points) in 28.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. McRae has played 29+ minutes in each of his last 4 games. He has scored 27+ DK points in each of those games, including a pair of 50+ DK point games. McRae needed only 23.5 minutes to score 33 DK points in his only matchup against Denver this season, and he’s expected to see 30+ minutes tonight. He’s a near must start on this slate tonight.
Garrison Mathews isn’t an elite player, but he can score at a high level for an offense that needs all the scoring power possible at the moment. Matthews has played 25+ minutes in 2 of his last 3 games, scoring 24.5 and 34.5 DK points in those games. Overall, he shot 12-18 from the field, 9-14 from beyond the arc, and 13-14 from the line in those contests. Mathews is expected to find minutes in the mid-20s tonight, and he’s the minimum price tonight. He could be the highest owned player on the slate, and for good reason.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks and San Antonio Spurs currently rank first and 13th in the NBA in pace this season. Milwaukee also ranks third in the league in offensive rating, while San Antonio ranks 20th in defensive rating in 2019. The Bucks are -12 point favorites in a game set at 228.5 points tonight, and they possess the highest implied total on the slate at 120.3 points.
Pat Connaughton is averaging 6.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists (21.4 DK points) in 21.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 20+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games. Connaughton is expected to find 20-25 minutes with Donte DiVincenzo out tonight, making him a solid salary relief option in a Milwaukee stack.
Khris Middleton continues to find success. He’s averaging 22.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.2 steals (41.7 DK points) in 31.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 40+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, while flashing 50+ DK points upside. Middleton is expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, and he’s a bit cheap for his recent production.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most obvious option for Milwaukee. He is averaging a healthy 59.2 DK points in only 29.7 minutes per game over his last 10 games. Antetokounmpo isn’t a player that is locked into big minutes each night, as he tends to see limited minutes in blowouts. Still, Antetokounmpo saw 31 minutes in his last game, scoring 64.25 DK points. He boasts 80+ DK point upside, and is a must start in a Milwaukee stack on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
San Antonio Spurs
The pace of this game has already been outlined, as both of these teams love pushing the pace in their games. The San Antonio Spurs currently rank 11th in the NBA in offensive rating. On the other side, the Milwaukee Bucks lead the league in defensive rating this season. The Spurs are +12 point underdogs in a game set at 228.5 points, but they still feature an implied team total of 108.3 points tonight.
Dejounte Murray has been ruled out tonight, giving Patty Mills extra minutes. He’s averaging 9.0 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.0 assists (17.0 DK points) in only 21.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. With that being said, he has scored 33.5 and 39.75 DK points in his last 2 games with 30+ minutes. He’s expected to find minutes in the high-20s or low-30s tonight, making him an elite salary relief option.
DeMar DeRozan will likely be the highest owned option for San Antonio tonight. He is averaging 26.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (40.0 DK points) in 35.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 34+ DK points in each of his last 5 games, while flashing 50+ DK point upside. DeRozan is averaging 1.16 DK points per minute on the road, and he’s an outstanding option tonight.
LaMarcus Aldridge is another Spurs player that is mispriced tonight. He has caught fire recently, averaging 20.3 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 2.5 blocks (43.9 DK points) in 32.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 40+ DK points in 6 of his last 8 games, including a 65.75 DK point performance against the Memphis Grizzlies. Aldridge could see some ownership tonight, but the Spurs are a stack that are likely to go underowned on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Derrick White
Derrick White has found a bit of success recently. He’s averaging 6.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.0 block (22.4 DK points) in 24.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. White has also been a consistent option recently, scoring 22+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games. He has also recently flashed 30+ DK points in limited minutes against the Brooklyn Nets.
White gets an interesting matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, which has already been outlined above. He’s expected to play minutes in the high-20s with Dejounte Murray out tonight. White is likely to feature some ownership tonight, but he can be considered in both cash games and tournaments because of his added role tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Michael Porter
Michael Porter has earned more minutes recently. Over his last 4 games, he’s averaging 15.5 points and 4.5 rebounds (24.0 DK points) in only 19.8 minutes per game. Porter played 20+ minutes in 2 of those 4 games, scoring 33.25 and 28.5 DK points in those contests. He’s averaging 1.11 DK points per minute through 25 games this season.
Porter gets an elite matchup against the Washington Wizards. They rank third in the NBA in pace and 30th in defensive rating. Porter’s minutes are far from guaranteed, but he’s expected to see 20-25 minutes tonight. He’s still cheap, but should strictly be used in tournaments on this slate.
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DFS Karma is partnered with DraftKings and are also avid fans and users and may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal view on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and we may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended in this article. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
