My Core
Milwaukee Bucks- NBA DFS is in a weird place right now, it seems like every night some slate-altering injury news hits, completely altering the player pool and forcing everyone onto the same plays. On one hand, this could be fruitful for tournaments as you have a good idea nightly what the majority of your opponents roster will look like. On the other hand, it’s increasingly frustrating for cash games with every slate turning into a massive 2v2. I particularly have struggled with consistency this season, it seems like there are weeks where I can’t miss and then other weeks where I’m losing nightly because of one player over another. This has reminded me how important discipline is when it comes to gambling and DFS in general, and to always diversify your portfolio. Sports betting and prop plays on MonkeyKnifeFight and Prize Picks (illegal in Ohio) are ways for you to avoid having all your eggs all in one basket, while we continue to search for an edge in DFS.
With that, let’s dive into tonight’s slate which will be chalky once again due to Giannis Antetokounmpo sitting out for the Bucks. A player like Giannis being out is obviously going to heavily affect the usage on a team, and here’s what you get with him off the floor:
Khris Middleton- 33% usage rate/1.41 fantasy points per minute.
Eric Bledsoe- 33% usage rate/1.46 fantasy points per minute.
Ersan Ilyasova- 1.07 fantasy points per minute.
Brook Lopez- 1.07 fantasy points per minute.
Guys like Donte DiVincenzo and George Hill also own per minute totals of over 1.00 points. We are going to focus on the Bucks to start our rosters given their prices, and locking in up to four of these guys is not out of the question. Ilyasova should start in Giannis’ place, and if that’s the case we have seen him play mid-20’s in minutes in every other game without ABC this season. We shouldn’t worry about getting the Hartenstein treatment from last night.
Zion Williamson- This could be where I look to find my edge on DraftKings, they have priced the rookie up to over $7,000 which has resulted in under 5% projected ownership for him tonight. Williamson has posted a 32% usage rate with 1.5 fantasy points per minute through the first three games of his career, and the main reason I haven’t been on him yet is due to his minute total. That being said, his minute total has risen in each game thus far, he got up to 27 in his last contest and was even allowed to finish out the game in a win over the Celtics. He’s also been up against some tough defensive teams in the Nuggets and Celtics, with this being his best overall matchup against a poor defensive Cavs team on a back-to-back. He posted his first career double-double on Sunday, and I’m expecting a repeat performance tonight.
I would like to add one more player to my core section, and I’m currently deciding between Jaylen Brown and Luka Doncic. Be sure to check out my premium player pool or core plays for my final decision. Reminder that the player pool is FREE for the first week, so take advantage!
Value Plays
Troy Brown- Another team dealing with injuries, as they have been all season, is the Washington Wizards. In addition to some of their big men, they will be without Jordan McRae who has been routinely logging around 20 minutes since Brad Beal returned. If you take Hachimura, Wagner and McRae off the floor you’ll see Troy Brown owns a per minute point total of 1.1 with a 20% usage rate. He has been pretty good fantasy-wise this season off the bench, and he is my top non-Bucks value play on this slate.
Dante Exum- Exum is not a big per minute producer, but he is close to minimum price and should see an increase in playing time with Darius Garland out for the Cavs tonight. He should benefit in the pace-bump, as the Pels come in top-five in pace compared to the Cavs who rank 24th overall.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
