Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems for today’s NBA DFS slate for DraftKings! Below, I will discuss my favorite NBA DFS plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets and Minnesota Wolves rank second and seventh in the NBA in pace, respectively. Houston also ranks third in the league in offensive rating, while Minnesota ranks 16th in defensive rating. The Rockets are -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 234.5 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 120 points.
Russell Westbrook
Russell Westbrook has caught fire in recent games. He’s averaging 31.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, 9.8 assists, and 2.5 steals (67.4 DK points) in 38.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has also scored 69+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games, while triple-doubling in a pair of those contests. Westbrook has been a better player at home, but he scored 56.5 DK points in 32.5 minutes in his only matchup against Minnesota this season. He’s an elite option on this slate.
James Harden
James Harden has cooled off a bit recently. This isn’t surprising, though, as Westbrook has taken a step forward. Over the last 10 days, Harden is averaging 28.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 6.2 assists, annd 1.0 block (49.3 DK points) in 37.0 minutes per game. His recent struggles have caused his price tag to drop, but Harden still possess 80 DK point basis on a nearly nightly basis. He’s also averaging 64.1 DK points in only 33.1 minutes per game against the Wolves, although one of those games was without Westbrook. Still, Westbrook and Harden will be locked into major minutes tonight, and they make an outstanding pairing in cash games.
Clint Capela
Clint Capela is the final piece of the Houston puzzle. He’s coming off of a 41.75 DK point performance against the Denver Nuggets. Still, he’s only averaging 12.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 2.0 blocks (36.2 DK points) in 32.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Capela is generally a safe option, though, and he boasts 60 DK point upside. He has yet to play Minnesota this season, but there’s very little reason to believe he’ll struggle in big minutes. This stack is extremely expensive, but there are a few salary relief options on this slate, and it would be surprising if more didn’t open up as the day progresses.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Atlanta Hawks currently rank 21st and sixth in the NBA in pace this season. Oklahoma City also ranks 17th in the league in offensive rating, while Atlanta ranks 25th in defensive rating. The Thunder are -9.5 point favorites in a game set at 229 points, and they possess an implied team total of 119.3 points.
Chris Paul
Chris Paul continues to play at a high level. He’s averaging 19.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.7 steals (37.8 DK points) in 31.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 46+ DK points in 3 of his last 5 games. Paul’s price tag doesn’t represent his upside, and he makes an outstanding tournament option on this slate tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is another player that has caught fire recently. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 18.7 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.7 steals (45.9 DK points) in 37.0 minutes per game. Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 38+ DK points in 6 of his last 7 games, including a 66.5 DK points performance against the Minnesota Wolves. He’s an athletic player that will benefit from the pace in this game, and he makes an elite option tonight.
Dennis Schroder
Dennis Schroder is the final mispriced guard for Oklahoma City. He’s averaging 21.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists (35.1 DK points) in 33.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 35+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, including a 49.25 DK points performance in his last game. This trio of guards continues to play big minutes tonight, and using each of the three would be a great way to separate your team. They all come with elite upside for their prices, as well.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs rank 12th in the NBA in pace, while the Phoenix Suns rank 10th in the league in the same category. San Antonio currently ranks ninth in the NBA in offensive rating, as well, while Phoenix ranks 19th in defensive rating. The Spurs are -4.5 point favorites in a game set at 227.5 points tonight, and they boast an implied team total of 116 points.
Dejounte Murray
Dejounte Murray isn’t a safe option, but he comes with plenty of upside. He’s averaging 9.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.0 steals (25.1 DK points) in 25.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Over that span, he flashed 40+ DK point upside. He’s a player that can contribute in multiple categories, and he’ll benefit greatly from the pace of this game.
DeMar DeRozan
DeMar DeRozan is averaging 22.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.8 steals (44.3 DK points) in 36.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 40+ DK points in 8 of his last 10 games, including a 62.75 DK points performance against the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s a player that consistently goes overlooked, and he isn’t likely to feature a ton of ownership on this large of a slate.
LaMarcus Aldridge
LaMarcus Aldridge is coming off of a huge game, scoring 59 DK points against the New Orleans Pelicans. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 22.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 1.0 steal (37.9 DK points) in 32.5 minutes per game. Aldridge has struggled a bit from the field against Phoenix this season, but he’s still averaging 36.3 DK points per game against them. He comes with tremendous upside, similarly to DeRozan.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Patty Mills
Patty Mills has been a boom or bust option this season. He’s averaging 12.8 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 1.4 assists (18.6 DK points) in 22.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Mills recently scored as few as 2 DK points, while flashing 30+ DK point upside. He has also posted 25+ DK points in 3 of his last 9 games.
Mills gets an outstanding matchup against the Phoenix Suns, which has already been outlined above. Mills is averaging 20.9 DK points in only 22.1 minutes per game against Phoenix this season. He’s expected to see 20-25 minutes once again tonight, and he makes a solid tournament option on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Dewayne Dedmon
Dewayne Dedmon has seen mixed results this season. He’s averaging 5.2 points and 4.4 rebounds (12.4 DK points) in only 14.2 minutes per game through 29 contests. Dedmon was forced into 31 minutes in his last game, though. He double-doubled, posting 13 points with 10 rebounds and 2 assists (30 DK points). He recently posted 26.5 DK points in 32 minutes against the Phoenix Suns, as well.
Dedmon gets an elite matchup against the Chicago Bulls. They rank 15th in the NBA in pace and ninth in defensive rating. With that being said, they have struggled throughout the season against bigs. Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley have already been ruled out tonight, forcing Dedmon into bigger minutes once again. He isn’t cheap enough to be an easy plug and play, but he makes an outstanding option for his current price tag.
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