Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems for today’s NBA DFS slate for DraftKings! Below, I will discuss my favorite NBA DFS plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Portland Blazers
The Portland Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder rank 11th and 22nd in the NBA in pace, respectively. Portland also ranks 12th in the league in offensive rating, while Oklahoma City ranks 14th in defensive rating. The Blazers are +6.5 point underdogs in a game set at 217 points, and they own an implied team total of 105.3 points.
Damian Lillard
C.J. McCollum has been ruled out tonight after playing only 12 minutes in his last game. Damian Lillard is averaging 25.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 8.0 assists (44.9 DK points) in 35.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s also coming off of a 55.25 DK point performance, taking on a larger offensive role with McCollum off the court. In three matchups against Oklahoma City this season, Lillard is averaging 48.3 DK points per game. He’s expected to see minutes in the high-30s or low-40s tonight, and he comes with elite upside in this matchup.
Anfernee Simons
Anfernee Simons is another player that will benefit from the injury to McCollum. Simons has seen somewhat of limited success in limited minutes this season. He is averaging 14.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists on a per-36 minute basis, though. Simons also saw 28 minutes in his last game, scoring 22.75 DK points, easily exceeding value. He has seen 30+ minutes in 2 of his last 6 games, posting 18.5 and 29.5 DK points. Simons is an option that will likely easily hit value on this slate, and he could be the highest owned player of anyone tonight.
Hassan Whiteside
Hassan Whiteside is the final piece of the Portland puzzle. He’s averaging 15.0 points, 15.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 3.8 blocks (44.0 DK points) in 32.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Whiteside saw limited minutes for a short stretch of games, but he has scored 57 and 45.5 DK points in 35+ minutes in each of his last 2 games. He has also played 30+ minutes in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging 51.5 DK points per game over that span. Whiteside has performed well against Oklahoma City in limited minutes this season, and he’s expected to be locked into big minutes tonight. He’s an outstanding option.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers currently rank second and 16th in the NBA in pace this season. Houston ranks third in the league in offensive rating, while Los Angeles ranks third in defensive rating. Stil, the Rockets are -2 point favorites in a game set at 234.5 points, and they possess the highest implied team total on the slate tonight at 118.3 points.
Russell Westbrook
Russell Westbrook is averaging 31.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and 1.0 steal (55.8 DK points) in 36.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s starting to heat up, as he has scored 69.75 and 56.5 DK points in his last 2 games. Westbrook has been at his best in Houston, where he’s averaging 1.46 DK points per minute as opposed to 1.32 DK points per minute on the road. Westbrook is likely to see minutes in the high-30s tonight, and he comes with tremendous upside.
James Harden
James Harden is the other focal point of the offense. He’s averaging 28.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.4 blocks (53.9 DK points) in 33.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. While his numbers don’t jump off the page, Harden has scored 60+ DK points in 2 of his last 3 contests. He’s expected to find minutes in the high-30s tonight, and he possesses one of the highest floors in the NBA.
Clint Capela
Clint Capela continues to dominate for Houston. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 15.0 points, 16.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.0 block (41.4 DK points) in 33.4 minutes per game. He has scored 39+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, including games with 58.5 and 59.5 DK points. Similarly to Westbrook, Capela has found significantly more success at home, where he averages 1.32 DK points per minute. He’s still surprisingly cheap, and makes an outstanding option on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz rank 20th in the NBA in pace, while the Sacramento Kings rank 28th in the same category. Utah also ranks 10th in the league in offensive rating, while Sacramento ranks 18th in defensive rating. The Jazz are -9 point favorites in a game set at 223 points, giving them an implied team total of 116 points tonight.
Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell is a true boom or bust option. He’s coming off of a 62.5 DK point performance against the New Orleans Pelicans, but also recently scored only 14.25 DK points in limited minutes against the Charlotte Hornets. Mitchell will continue to run the offense while Mike Conley is on a minute’s restriction, and he boasts elite upside for his price tag.
Joe Ingles
Joe Ingles continues to be priced far too low. After seeing limited minutes in a pair of games, he is averaging 38.3 DK points in 34.0 minutes per game. He was also consistently scoring 30+ DK points prior to that. Ingles will see 30+ minutes tonight, making him an elite option Bojan Bogdanovic comes with a bit more upside (and risk), and can be swapped in for this stack.
Rudy Gobert
Rudy Gobert has been playing at a high level for quite some time. He’s averaging 18.2 points, 15.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.6 blocks (49.5 DK points) in 33.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Gobert has scored 47+ DK points in each of his last 5 games, while flashing 55+ DK point upside. He’s a player that boasts 20/20 upside, and makes an outstanding tournament option in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Jordan Poole
Jordan Poole has been a boom or bust option for the majority of the 2019 season. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 9.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists (16.8 DK points) in only 19.2 minutes per game. Poole has played 25+ minutes in 2 of his last 3 games, scoring 28 and 21.25 DK points in those games. He also needed only 12 minutes to score 20 DK points in his last game.
Poole gets a tough matchup against the Orlando Magic. They currently rank 27th in the NBA in pace and seventh in defensive rating. He’s expected to see roughly 25 minutes tonight, and make a solid option in the offense. Poole isn’t safe enough for cash games, but he makes a solid salary relief option in tournaments.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Eric Paschall
Eric Paschall has seen mixed results this season. He’s averaging 11.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.2 steals (21.4 DK points) in only 21.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Paschall has scored 20+ DK points in each of his last 4 games, including a 32.75 DK point performance against the Memphis Grizzlies. While his minutes have been inconsistent in 2019, he has found success while on the court.
Paschall gets a matchup against the Orlando Magic, which has already been outlined above. Draymond Green has been ruled out tonight, forcing Paschall into bigger minutes. He’s expected to play around 30 minutes tonight, and he’s an outstanding option for a low price tag on this slate.
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