My Core
Shabazz Napier- Normally a player that’s $5,000 would make my value plays tier, but that’s not the case with Napier. He became one of the top plays on the slate on Thursday when the Wolves traded Jeff Teague to Atlanta. He will be needed as a primary ball-handler tonight and should see an increase in minutes as well. He’s averaging just 22 minutes per game this season, but our Data Dashboard has him projected for 30 tonight. He’s been just south of a point per minute player in 2019, and should be considered a staple across all formats.
Jimmy Butler- I debated both Butler and LaMarcus Aldridge here, but ultimately I’m siding with Butler. He’s been the much more consistent option this season, and comes in just $700 more. The Heat are a much better team at home, but I think that actually helps out Butler. If the game is closer on the road, he will be needed for more production and minutes. Butler’s DK point totals in his last five road games are 40, 50, 35, 48 and 50. This is not to say Aldridge is a bad play against a weak rebounding Hawks team, and I could see a path in which you lock in both of them tonight.
Al Horford- The 76ers will continue to be a focal point for us in DFS with Joel Embiid sidelined. The Bulls ate actually a pretty good defensive team relative to what you would think, though they struggle to rebound the ball and that will be magnified even further without Wendell Carter and Daniel Gafford. Horford is the best player per minute wise with Embiid off the floor, and he also sees a near 4% usage rate spike. His price has come up, but he has the ability to contribute to all stat categories and it’s hard to me to overlook him on Friday night.
Value Plays
Dejounte Murray- Earlier in this article I mentioned that LaMarcus Aldridge’s projected ownership due to his price and matchup with the Atlanta Hawks. If you dig into the numbers, you’ll see Aldridge sports a 1.11 DraftKings points per minute rate this season. You’re probably thinking “not bad”, but what if I told you that Murray himself is at 1.12? He’s been more inconsistent, sure, with under 20 points in three of his last six, but he definitely appears mispriced. Aldridge comes in at $7,100. compared to Murray who is $5,400 against the defense of Trae Young. Typically, I don’t like to get this risky in cash games given his recent form, but this price tag is too good to pass up.
We have a few big injury situations to monitor in Tyler Herro and Steven Adams/Nerlens Noel. Herro is slated as a game-time decision, and we can look at Goran Dragic in all formats should he end up missing this game. As for the Thunder, Noel hasn’t played since early January, but may be needed if Adams is unable to go after playing just seven minutes in their last game. If both were out, Mike Muscala would get the bump up.
As of now, it’s pretty clear that this is going to be more of a balanced build day on DraftKings.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
