NBA DFS 1/10/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs have been slowing the pace down throughout the 2018 season, ranking only 24th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a plus matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who currently rank fourth in the league in pace. San Antonio also ranks fifth in the NBA in offensive rating, while Oklahoma City leads the league in defensive rating. The Spurs are +1.5 point underdogs in a game set at 225.5 points, giving them an implied total of 112 points tonight.
Derrick White is entirely too cheap tonight, averaging 17.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists (26.9 DK points) in 27.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s coming off of a disappointing game against the Memphis Grizzlies, but he only played 16 minutes in that game, struggling with fouls. Prior to that game, he had scored 25+ DK points in seven of his last eight games, including three games with 30+ DK points. He’s expected to play 30+ minutes tonight, and he’s still under $5K on DraftKings, even with flashing both consistency and upside at his price tag. Bryn Forbes is in a similar position to White, as he’s averaging 14.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists (22.9 DK points) in 32.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 20+ DK points in nine of his last 10 games, including a 40.5 DK point performance against the Minnesota Timberwolves. He’s also extremely cheap for his recent production, and he’s a consistent player, who comes with the upside needed in tournaments, as well. LaMarcus Aldridge has featured plenty of ups and downs this season, but he’s averaging 22.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.0 assists (36.5 DK points) in 30.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s surprisingly cheap, and has scored 35+ DK points in six of his last eight games. Aldridge also owns three games with 55.75, 52.75, and 43.25 DK points over his last seven games. He has been a better fantasy option at home this season, and he’s expected to be locked into big minutes once again tonight. The Spurs are expected to lose, but their players are simply too cheap to be ignored, specifically in cash games.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Sacramento Kings have featured one of the fastest paces in the NBA this season, ranking second in the NBA in pace through 41 games. They get a matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who only rank 21st in the league in pace in 2018. Sacramento also ranks 15th in the NBA in offensive rating this season, while Detroit ranks 14th in the league in defensive rating. The Kings are -5 point favorites in a game set at 223.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 114.3 points tonight.
De’Aaron Fox is expected to feature quite a bit of ownership tonight, but he’s a player that is impossible to avoid in a Sacramento stack, especially in cash games. He has cooled off a bit recently, averaging 17.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 2.7 steals (33.5 DK points) in 30.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Prior to his recent skid, Fox was scoring 40+ DK points on a nightly basis. He’s coming off of a 24/3/5/1/3 line (40.75 DK points) in 31 minutes against the Phoenix Suns. Fox will be locked into big minutes again, and he’s a bit too cheap for his upside. Bogdan Bogdanovic has caught fire recently, averaging 15.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.5 steals (33.3 DK points) in 32.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s coming off of a bad game against Phoenix, but he has scored 35+ DK points in four of his last six games. Bogdanovic has been a significantly better option at home this season, and Detroit has struggled against guards at times this season. Iman Shumpert is questionable tonight, and he’s a solid leverage option if he’s able to suit up. He only scored 5.75 DK points in his last game, but failed to make any of his seven shot attempts in that game. He had scored 20+ DK points in his three games prior to that, averaging 29.6 DK points per game in that time. Shumpert certainly comes with some risk, but he adds quite a bit of upside for a low price tag to this stack.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
I have already outlined White above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He’s a consistent option, even coming off of a bad game, scoring 25+ DK points in seven of his last nine games. He is also averaging 0.97 DK points per minute over the last 10 days. White gets a tough matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he’s expected to play 30+ minutes again tonight. He can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Waiters has only played in two games this season, averaging 11.0 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists (20.1 DK points) in only 17.4 minutes per game. He saw 25 minutes in his last game, scoring 25.75 DK against the Detroit Pistons. Waiters has also posted a solid usage rating north of 25% in his limited minutes.
He gets a tough matchup against the Boston Celtics, but there are only so many matchups on this slate. Waiters is expected to see minutes in the mid-20s once again tonight. He’s far from a risky option because of his low price tag, but he’s the type of player that can easily exceed value. He’ll likely feature a bit of ownership, and I simply did not want to skip over him on this slate. Technically, he’s a small forward on DraftKings, which is why I slotted him into the “Value Big” category.
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