Recap of Last Night
Happy New Year family! Last night was a crazy slate with Pascal Siakam getting ruled out for disciplinary reasons after the initial 7pm EST lock. Again, this is a perfect example of what I’ve written about all week. Late swap is the most under-utilized tool in NBA DFS. Being able to effectively handle it and make quick decisions is going to be even more valuable this season than in years past. I absolutely loved my lineup heading into the slate, but made switches to get Kyle Lowry and Chris Boucher into my lineup. I ended up scoring 234.25 which was enough to win cash games for the third time in four nights this week. The Raptors guys were all under-owned relative to what they would have been had that news hit earlier in the day. You’ll also notice that with all of the blowouts to start the season, DFS scoring has been down across the board.
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Guard
Raul Neto- Neto was a lock for me in all formats the last time Russell Westbrook rested, and we get the same situation tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves. I am not expecting 40 fantasy points again, but the had the ball in his hands a ton (second most on the team) and should log more minutes than Ish Smith. His price is still punt-level on DraftKings, and he is the first player I’m locking into my lineups tonight. Neto has the second-highest value core in our projections portal today behind only his teammate, Bradley Beal.
Forward
Thad Young- Prior to yesterday’s game, the Bulls had some health protocol issues, which will leave them shorthanded again tonight. In addition to that, they will also be without Lauri Markkanen who is still dealing with a leg injury. This opened up big minutes for both Otto Porter (who started) and Thad Young off the bench. This was Young’s first game of the season, and he responded with 31 DK points in 27 minutes. I can’t expect that level of efficiency again in a tougher matchup, on a back-to-back, but the minutes should remain secure even in the event of a blowout. We could get some more value that opens up, but for now, Young is viable in all formats at $3,500 on DK.
Center
Nikola Jokic- I’ve played Joker every night this week and I don’t plan on stopping tonight vs Phoenix. Jokic is currently leading the NBA in fantasy points per minute, with a whopping 1.7 mark on DraftKings. There is a severe lack of frontcourt depth for the Nuggets right now, which has resulted in minute totals of 42 (OT), 38, 34 and 39 for the big man this season. Vegas expects this game to be close, and that means we can project another monster workload on Friday night. Michael Porter Jr is also out for Denver, which opens up some more shot attempts. His price is up across the industry but we have never seen him in this role, and I believe sub-11K on DK is still a discount. Our projections like Joker for 51 DraftKings points in this game.
Outlook
We still have plenty of injury news waiting to drop, and could see more unexpected ones pop up with the size of this slate. As always, I would like to end up with a more stars/scrubs type build if possible. Be sure to stay tuned into discord and my Final Thoughts sheet (Free on Friday’s) for my updated thoughts on the slate!
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
