NBA Betting 11/5/18 – Bales’ MyBookie Bets
Toronto Raptors (-130)
The Utah Jazz have burned me a few times this season, but this line is likely projected the absence of Kawhi Leonard for the Toronto Raptors. Still, there is a bit of value, as we know Donovan Mitchell will miss this game, while Leonard has a very real chance of suiting up. On the season, Toronto has featured one of the best teams in the NBA, posting a top-five net offensive and defensive rating (8.3) to go along with a nearly flawless 9-1 record. Utah has played in a few tough games, but rank only 13th in net off and def rating (1.0), which is significantly better than their 4-5 record suggests. Toronto currently ranks as the better offense and defense, while Utah will need to find scoring with Mitchell injured. This line becomes a bit more iffy if Leonard is ruled out, but I feel Mitchell is more important to Utah at this point than Leonard is to Toronto. Nonetheless, this line is a bit too close, and we can take advantage of that.
Bet 3 units on the Toronto ML to win 2.3 units (-130)
Cleveland Cavaliers (+170)/Orlando Magic (-205)
These are two of the slower paced teams in the NBA, as the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic rank 26th and 22nd in the league in pace this season. With that being said, this game total is entirely too low, as they feature two of the worst defenses in the league, as well. Orlando ranks 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating, while Cleveland ranks last. Neither team features an elite offense, but bad offenses can still score against bad defenses. These two teams are combining to allow an average of 229.6 points per game, which is significantly higher than the total is set at. While these offenses may struggle at times, they have both shown flashes in the right matchups.
Bet 3 units on the Cleveland/Orlando OVER 213.5 to win 2.7 units (-110)
Miami Heat (+155)
This is simply a bet of odds value. The Miami Heat boast only a 3-5 record this season, but they currently rank 14th in the NBA in net off and def rating (0.6), suggesting they will see positive regression as the season continues. The Detroit Pistons, on the other hand, own a 4-4 record, while ranking only 20th in the league in net off and def rating (-2.4). Detroit has lost each of their last four games, and only have one good win on the season (vs Philadelphia 76ers). Miami is in a similar situation, coming off of an ugly lost against the Atlanta Hawks, although they do own a win against the Portland Trail Blazers. Miami has truly struggled on the road this season, which is a major concern, especially as they deal with injuries. Still, these odds are a bit too wide to completely ignore, making Miami a value bet on this slate.
Bet 2 units on the Miami ML to win 3.1 units (+155)
Parlay 2 units on Indiana ML, New Orleans/Oklahoma City OVER 238, Memphis/Golden State OVER 218.5 to win 12 units (+600)
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