Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Antonio Senzatela
Senzatela has found success early this season. He’s allowed only 3 earned runs with 9 strikeouts over 11 innings. He owns a 4.78 xFIP and a 4.63 SIERA this season, though. Still, Senzatela’s strikeout rate is up to 19.1% to go along with an 11% swing-strike rate. Surprisingly, he was worse on the road in 2019, recording a 5.36 xFIP over 58 road innings. He did find success against right-handed batters, though, posting a 4.71 xFIP against righties in 2019.
Senzatela gets a great matchup against the Seattle Mariners tonight. They rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking second-last in team wOBA. Senzatela is a +116 underdog against Seattle, giving them an implied team total of 4.5 runs tonight. He’ll be throwing in a pitcher-friendly park with newly found strikeout potential, though. Yusei Kikuchi will likely be the chalk option at pitcher on this slate, allowing Senzatela to go overlooked.
Ryan McBroom
McBroom has seen mixed results this season. He’s hitting for a .259 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .730 OPS through 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (one home run) and two RBIs in those games. McBroom has been at his best against left-handed pitching, posting a .278 average with a .472 slugging percentage, .822 OPS, and .194 ISO against lefties. He owns career .054 wOBA and .149 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
McBroom gets a plus matchup against Devin Smeltzer tonight. Smeltzer has seen limited innings in the MLB, but he has struggled against right-handed batters. He has allowed them to hit for a .274 average with a .506 slugging percentage and a .342 wOBA. McBroom is hitting fourth in the Kansas City Royals lineup tonight. He’s a cheap option with solid power against left-handed pitching. He makes an outstanding salary relief option in tournaments on this slate.
Eddy Alvarez
Alvarez has seen five at-bats in the MLB but he has yet to record a hit. He posted a .323 average with a .570 slugging percentage and a .409 wOBA in Triple-A last season. He posted a 42.1% extra-base hit rate with 12 home runs in 2019. Alvarez also posted 12 stolen bases while only being caught 3 times. In 2015, he needed only 89 games to post 42 steals, although it isn’t likely that he’s going to be an elite stolen base option in the Majors.
Alvarez gets a matchup against Michael Wacha tonight. Wacha was a reverse splits pitcher in 2019 but still allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .259 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .343 wOBA. Alvarez is hitting second in the Miami Marlins lineup tonight. He doesn’t project as a great MLB hitter at the moment but comes with a solid combination of speed and power. It isn’t often you get that in a plus matchup, hitting high in the order for near the minimum price. Most will avoid him because he’s a bit of an unknown but he comes with more than enough upside to pay off his low price tag.
Jake Cave
Cave has struggled early in the 2020 season. He’s hitting .158 with a .316 slugging percentage and a .649 OPS. He owns one home run and six RBIs through six games. Cave has found success against right-handed pitching throughout his career, though, posting a .271 average with a .476 slugging percentage, .824 OPS, and .205 ISO. He enters this game with .062 wOBA and .013 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching in his career.
Cave gets a solid matchup against Jakob Junis tonight. Junis struggled against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .298 average with a .476 slugging percentage and a .352 wOBA. Junis also allowed a .283/.452/.336 line at home in 2019. Cave is hitting fifth in the Minnesota Twins lineup tonight. The offense as a whole comes with plenty of upside, which should result in Cave seeing plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points in this game. He struggled as chalk the other night and he’ll go overlooked on this slate.
Nick Senzel
Senzel has flashed in 2020. He’s hitting for a .241 average with a .483 slugging percentage and a .795 OPS. Senzel owns five extra-base hits (one home run), three RBIs, and one stolen base through nine games. Senzel has looked elite against left-handed pitching in his career. He owns a .301 average with a .524 slugging percentage, .884 OPS, and .223 ISO against lefties. Senzel boasts .069 wOBA and .064 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching in his career, as well.
Senzel gets a matchup against Eric Lauer tonight. Lauer was a reverse splits pitcher in 2019, although right-handed batters hit for a .247 average with a .395 slugging percentage and a .300 wOBA. Senzel has moved up to the leadoff spot for the Cincinnati Reds tonight. He’s a player that comes with an outstanding combination of speed and power. The Reds aren’t in a great spot tonight, and their players are likely to go overlooked on a huge slate.
SuperDraft
Rowdy Tellez (1.6x)
Tellez is only hitting for a .192 average with a .346 slugging percentage and a .588 OPS through seven games. He boasts two extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs. Tellez has found similar success against left- and right-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s hitting for a .235 average with a .474 slugging percentage, .768 OPS, and .239 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Tellez gets an interesting matchup against Ryan Weber tonight. Weber has been at his worst against left-handed batters in his career, allowing them to hit for a .290 average with a .550 slugging percentage and a .383 wOBA. Tellez is hitting fourth for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. He gets a 1.6x multiplier and comes with home run potential on this slate, making him an outstanding option on SuperDraft.
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