Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel has thrown well early this season, allowing 5 earned runs over 17.2 innings while striking out 11 batters. He’s coming off of a dominant 26.2 fantasy point performance against the Milwaukee Brewers. Keuchel’s success is backed by a 3.41 xFIP and a 3.66 SIERA. He only boasts a 15.5% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.9 swinging-strike rate early this season. Early in this season, he has been better against right-handed batters, as well, which is a major factor in the game tonight.
Keuchel gets a matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who have found plenty of success early this season. They rank second on the slate in strikeouts and slightly above average in team wOBA, though. Keuchel is a -141 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving the Tigers an implied team total of only 4.2 runs. Keuchel is likely to go overlooked because of his lack of strikeouts, but this matchup could cure that. He has flashed strikeout upside, including eight in his last start, suggesting that he could continue to build on that for a reasonable price tag tonight.
Jose Abreu
Abreu has found success early this season, hitting for a .250 average with a .426 slugging percentage and a .708 OPS. He owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 9 RBIs through 16 games. Abreu was an elite option against left-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .260 average with a .591 slugging percentage, 1.009 OPS, and .232 ISO. He recorded .103 wOBA and .017 ISO differentials against lefties in 2019.
Abreu gets an initial matchup against Michael Fulmer, but he’ll spend more time against Daniel Norris in this game. Norris struggled against right-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .279 average with a .471 slugging percentage and a .333 wOBA. Abreu is hitting fourth for the Chicago White Sox tonight. I expect them to be one of the best offenses on this slate, but they are likely to go overlooked with a game in Coors tonight. Regardless of which matchup you want to breakdown, Abreu should find success against either Fulmer or Norris.
Shin-Soo Choo
Choo has struggled early this season, posting a .194 average with a .472 slugging percentage and .782 OPS through 12 games. He owns four extra-base hits (three home runs) and seven RBIs in those contests. Choo is a significantly better option against right-handed pitching. He hit for a .280 average with a .494 slugging percentage, .886 OPS, and .214 ISO against righties in 2019. He also boasts .078 wOBA and .081 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Choo gets an interesting matchup against Justin Dunn. He has held left-handed batters to a .067 average with a .267 slugging percentage and a .371 wOBA in limited innings in the MLB. I don’t expect him to continue that success. Dunn also doesn’t pitch deep into the game, meaning Choo will face off against the Seattle Mariners bullpen, which has been one of the worst in the MLB early this season. He’s expected to lead off for the Texas Rangers, and Choo is a high upside option that will go overlooked tonight.
SuperDraft
Amed Rosario (1.75x)
Rosario has seen a few ups and downs throughout the 2020 season. He’s hitting for a .226 average with a .340 slugging percentage and a .556 OPS. He owns three extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs. Rosario was at his best against left-handed pitching in 2019, recording a .311 average with a .527 slugging percentage, .887 OPS, and .216 ISO. He posted .069 wOBA and .094 ISO differentials against lefties last season.
Rosario gets a tough matchup against Patrick Corbin tonight. Corbin allowed right-handed batters to post a .235 average with a .404 slugging percentage and a .298 wOBA last season. Rosario is expected to lead off for the New York Mets tonight. He’ll go overlooked on this slate cause of the matchup, but he gets a 1.75x multiplier on SuperDraft. He comes with quite a bit of upside, although he is also an extremely risky option.
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