It’s Wednesday in December, which means we have a big NBA slate on tap. A quick recap of last night: it went similar to how the last week has gone for me. My cash line-up put up 350 points and just barely cashed but GPPs were trash yet again as I left Mr. Boucher out of my player pool. I’m somewhat treading water of late which is fine in DFS as we are just waiting for that one big hit. Tonight on Draftkings there are some huge contests out there. I’m somewhat risk averse when it comes to my bankroll allocations on a given night but I do chase some overlay if I see contests not filling. I may stretch my bankroll tonight and if it doesn’t work out I’ll just have a lower tax bill for 2021 (gotta have positive thinking in these DFS streets). Anyway, we have a huge slate so let’s dig in.
Significant Players Ruled Out:
- Dejounte Murray
- Jayson Tatum
- Paul George
- Anthony Davis
- Bam Adebayo
- Kyle Lowry
- Deandre Ayton
- Donovan Mitchell
- Nurkic
- Luca Doncic
- Miles Bridges
- John Collins
- Lonzo Ball
- Josh Giddey
- Cade Cunningham
- Jimmy Butler
- PJ Tucker
- Jerami Grant
- Reggie Jackson
- CJ Mccollum
- Dennis Schroder
- Isaiah Steward
- Robinson-Earl
- Dillon Brooks
- Jae Crowder
- PJ Washington
- Derrick Rose
- Delon Wright
- Bogdan Bogdanovic
- Kevin Huerter
- Bazley
- Killian Hayes
- Robert Covington
- Dwayne Dedmon
- Tim Hardaway Jr.
- Nerlens Noel
- Dwayne Dedmon
- Gabe Vincent
Significant Players Listed Questionable:
- Malcolm Brogdon
- Marcus Smart
- Lonnie Walker (Doubtful)
- Josh Richardson
There have already been a lot of players ruled out but not too many listed with questionable tags. I’m sure as the day goes on we will get more news, what fun is NBA DFS without some major news around lock?
+EV Strategy:
- With a slate this size and with COVID running through the league there’s going to be tons of news and opportunities to late swap. I like to build both my cash and GPP lineups game by game if you have the time to be by your computer throughout the night. Try and lock in the best plays for each game as the night goes along, but if there’s unreliable value I’ll sometimes fade in hopes that value opens up in the late games at low ownership. I’ve noticed that the early games tend to have chalky value mainly because we have that news before lock. Don’t be afraid to fade some early game chalk as the upside for some low owned value in the late games is a great way to take down a GPP. Tonight we have games sprinkled throughout the night so we will need to check the injury news basically every half hour and update lineups continuously throughout the evening.
GPP Game Stacks:
Game stacking on big slates with this much injury news is not as important since there are solid plays in almost every game. I do like to correlate the studs if they are playing against each other. We know that certain teams have almost all their production go through their studs so if the game stays competitive or goes into overtime we can expect the spend-up options to get there. Tonight I love Lebron and Ja Morant and it just so happens they are playing against each other. This game has a high total and a close spread which is always good to see. Both these teams are heavily reliant on each of these players to score points/assist on buckets so it makes sense to pair these two in hopes for a high scoring affair. I plan on making 100 lineups tonight and will have these 2 players paired together in a decent percentage of line-ups.
GPP Plays:
- Kristaps Porzingis – Porzingis has been a monster this year with Luca and Tim Hardaway Jr. off the court. I pulled his rates and he’s at 1.57 fantasy points per minute with both of them off the floor. He also gets a great match-up with Sacramento in what should be a tight game as the late night hammer. This is the last game of the night so it will give your rosters maximum flexibility should late news break. Also, on a slate this large the ownership is very reasonable at a projected 14%. I’ll be getting well overweight on Porzingis tonight as one of my favorite spend-ups of the slate.
- Ja Morant – I touched on Ja above but let me go into a little more detail on him. He gets a match-up with the Lakers who have apparently forgotten how to play defense this year. Morant’s minutes are starting to tick up as this will be his 5th game back from injury after playing 34 minutes last game. We also have a somewhat short handed Memphis team with Dillon Brooks, Melton and Konchar ruled out. With Dillon Brooks off the floor this year, Morant is at 1.37 fantasy points per minute and has a 33% usage rate. He’s also only expected to garner around 10%-15% ownership. At an $8,800 price tag on DK, I want all the shares I can get of Morant as this feels like a slightly discounted price tag for a pristine match-up.
- Mason Plumlee – The Plumdog is the Rodney Dangerfield of DFS…he just gets no respect. I loved him last time out and he smashed with 40 fantasy points in 29 minutes. He was 7 for 7 from the field so that probably won’t happen again but he should get more minutes tonight. On Monday Charlotte blew out Houston so Plumlee missed his last rotation. I’m expecting 35+ minutes tonight in a match-up with a big Indiana team who likes to run out two bigs for most of the game (Turner and Sabonis). Plumlee is around a fantasy point per minute producer this year with Bridges and PJ Washington off the floor so at a $4,500 price tag on DK and single digit ownership I’ll be well overweight in my GPP exposures.
GPP Fade:
- Cam Reddish – This is a tough fade but of the chalkier options on the slate I’m most likely to be underweight on Mr. Reddish. He’s priced all the way up to $6,200 on DK and is expected to garner over 20% ownership. He should be looking at big minutes tonight but most of those minutes are going to come alongside a high usage player in Trae Young. When we look at the data, with Trae Young on the court Reddish is at .78 fantasy points per minute on the year. He should play 35+ minutes tonight but I expect most of those minutes to come alongside Trae. In addition, at $6,200 we need 35+ fantasy points at a minimum for GPPs. I’ll most likely come in under 20% ownership here as I like a lot of pivots and cheaper options that have just as much, if not more upside at lower ownership.
This should be a fun slate as I’m expecting a lot of news to drop this afternoon and evening. There is a million to first, $2,500 entry contest with a 1,009 player field on Draftkings that is very tempting. For those of you with a larger bankroll, that contest still has 100 spots left so reserve your entries soon.
Hope everyone enjoys the games and wins some money tonight!
Max
