Hope everyone enjoyed a nice little holiday break and got to spend some quality time with family and did some damage at the dining room table. I ate my fair share so if I’m not online this afternoon it means I’m on our new Peloton to try and shed some extra pounds. I did chase some overlay and played the Christmas slate but that didn’t end well as I had way too much Bogdan Bogdanovic. I should have a slow week at the day job so I’m planning to devote a little extra time to DFS to close out the year strong. Tonight we get a 7 gamer at the time of this writing although it looks like the Atlanta vs. Chicago game has a chance at being postponed so we will need to monitor that situation.
Significant Players Ruled Out:
- Jayson Tatum
- John Collins
- Trae Young
- Anthony Edwards
- Karl Anthony-Towns
- Luca Doncic
- Paul George
- Kevin Durant
- Lonzo Ball
- Donovan Mitchell
- Nurkic
- CJ McCollum
- Reggie Jackson
- Miles Bridges
- Dillon Brooks
- Delon Wright
- PJ Washington
- Kevin Huerter
- Jared Vanderbilt
- Jae Crowder
- Lamarcus Aldridge
- Maxi Kleber
- Robert Covington
- Tim Hardaway Jr.
- Dennis Schroder
- Naz Reid
Significant Players Listed Questionable:
- Dame Lillard
- Kevin Porter Jr.
- Jalen Green
- Patrick Beverly
- Alex Caruso (Doubtful)
- Marcus Morris
- Marcus Smart
The new normal in NBA DFS is that every slate will have a ton of injuries so we should be expecting this nightly going forward.
+EV Strategy:
- Tonight, late swap is going to come into play as we have Dame Lillard listed questionable and in one of the last games of the evening. If we get late news that Dame’s ruled out then Portland would have a number of great plays that we can get at an ownership discount. We’ll need to build rosters to plan for these potential swaps. I may set rules to play a minimum of 2 players from the late games as a way to make sure all rosters have some flexibility to account for news.
GPP Game Stacks:
There are a few games I like and some strategy to dive into so rather than pick a game I’ll go over my thoughts this early in the day:
- The Houston vs. Charlotte game has a lot of solid value. The issue with this game is it’s the first game of the night which will make your rosters less flexible should we get a lot of late news. I’m fine playing some Charlotte pieces from this early game but generally I want to keep roster spots open for late news. I’ll be mainly building around the last 2 games of the night (Portland Vs. Dallas & LA Clippers vs. Brooklyn) as this will give my rosters the ability to adjust for Lillard news. If Lillard is ruled out I’ll be jamming in as much Portland value as I can and like Porzingis as a bring back on the Dallas side. The Clippers vs. Nets match-up also has a lot of value since Durant and Paul George are ruled out. Eric Bledsoe looks great on the Clippers, although if he gets too chalky I don’t mind a fade. On the Nets they have a very chalky James Harden that we will want in most of our line-ups and I don’t mind some lower owned plays on the Nets like Bruce Brown and Nic Claxton.
GPP Plays:
- Mason Plumlee – In looking at initial ownership projections, Mason Plumlee is showing as under 10% ownership. If that’s the case I’ll be well overweight in GPPs. Plumlee is at .9 fantasy points per minute on the year and should see a major uptick in playing time with Miles Bridges and PJ Washington ruled out (I’m expecting 28+ minutes). He’s priced all the way down at $4,000 on DK, which is just too cheap for a match-up with Houston. He can be used as a nice pivot at Center off the Nathan Knight chalk or we can even pair the two together for some double center line-ups. Also, there isn’t much to pay up for at Center since Jokic isn’t on the slate, so there’s not a lot of opportunity cost. I love Plumlee tonight in the highest total game of the slate and hope the ownership stays depressed come lock.
- Anfernee Simons – This is a speculative play in hopes that Dame Lillard gets ruled out. Simons is around .9 fantasy points per minute over the last 2 years when Lillard, CJ and Nurkic are off the floor. He also gets a big usage bump, just this year with the big 3 off the floor he’s showing a 37% usage rate (small sample size). I expect Simons and Powell to soak up all the usage if Dame is out and Simons has a lot of upside at a $4,300 price tag on DK. Simons’ also listed as Point Guard/Shooting Guard which should help fit him into line-ups. Even if Dame does play I expect the minutes to be there and he grades out as a solid play in that case. If Dame is ruled out and we can get single digit ownership on Simons he could be a needed piece to take down a GPP.
YOLO Play:
- I’ve been tracking Jaylen Nowell all year waiting for him to get big minutes. Tonight may be that night with Towns, Russell and Edwards all being ruled out. Patrick Beverly is currently listed as questionable, if he gets ruled out I’d expect Nowell to get 30 minutes of playing time. Nowell is right around a fantasy point per minute player with the Big 3 off the court. At a $3,900 price tag on DK and single digit ownership I want to be overweight here in hopes that Beverly is scratched. Even if Beverly is ruled in, Nowell should see 25 minutes and can easily pay off a $3,900 price tag. I’ll also note that Beverly is listed as questionable due to conditioning, so if he plays they could potentially limit Beverly’s minutes which would be a direct benefit to Nowell’s playing time. Monitor this situation closely as we may not get this news by lock.
GPP FADES:
- Jaden Mcdaniels (Minnesota)- Early ownership projections have him at 22% projected ownership on DK. Mcdaniels is no longer free as he’s priced at $5,100. He’ll most likely get big minutes tonight but historically he’s not a great fantasy producer. With Towns, Russell and Edwards off the floor he’s at .67 fantasy points per minute over the last 2 seasons. This is the type of play I like to fade, if he doesn’t get big minutes in this spot I’d expect Mcdaniels to disappoint. We also have a plethora of value options on this slate. As a direct pivot at Power Forward in this price range we can look to Larry Nance at 2% ownership. Nance isn’t my favorite play but the ownership discrepancy between these 2 plays is wild.
It’s looking like a fun slate with a lot of solid value, spend-ups and pivots. I’m getting excited about the slate and hope we can all close out the year strong with some solid profits. I’ll be posting my GPP core plays closer to lock after we get more news so stay tuned.
Good luck tonight!
Max
