We’re almost to Christmas and there are only 10 days left before the start of 2022 (time flies!). It’s been my most profitable year in DFS to date (I’ve played for about 4 years) and I’ve outperformed all the goals I set for myself at the start of the year. I suggest coming up with some DFS goals for next year and design your play around meeting those goals. A quick recap of last night; There were a slew of injuries which made it a fun little slate, cash went well but GPPs fell short once again. It was a profitable night though so I guess I can’t complain. Tonight we now have a 5 game slate with already one game cancelled (Toronto vs. Chicago). The injury news is wild as I counted 72 players on the injury report, which makes up almost half the players on the entire slate. Let’s dig in and see what edges we can find this evening.
Impactful Players Ruled Out:
- Clint Capela
- Trae Young
- Giannis Antetekoumpo
- De’Aaron Fox
- Jarrett Allen
- Evan Mobley
- Al Horford
- Mo Bamba
- Kevin Porter Jr.
- Bobby Portis
- Danilo Gallinari
- Jalen Suggs
- Jalen Green
- Marvin Bagley
- Davion Mitchell
- Terrence Ross
- Terrence Davis
- Alex Len
- Lou Williams
Impactful Players Listed Questionable:
- Christian Wood
- Cole Anthony
- Aaron Gordon
- Richaun Holmes
- Bogdan Bogdanovic
- Jamychal Green
- Troy Brown
This is getting wild and I’m all for a short pause in the schedule to deal with this COVID/Omnicron spike (although it sounds like Adam Silver has no plans in postponing the season).
GPP Game Stacks:
At this point in the day no single game is sticking out but there are a couple teams I’ll be targeting.
- Atlanta – Atlanta should have a lot of value with Trae Young and Capela ruled out. John Collins looks like a great play but will be heavy chalk. I like Cam Reddish and Bogdan Bogdanovic as lower owned GPP plays. Bogdan is at 1.25 fantasy points per minute without Trae Young and Capela on the court. The problem is he’s been injured for about a month. If we get news that Bogdan is starting I’ll try and get above the field in my GPP allocations. There’s a lot of usage to go around on Atlanta so I anticipate having multiple Hawks on most of my rosters.
- Sacramento – I’ve been playing a lot of Sacramento lately which feels gross but continues to pay off. With Fox and potentially Richaun Holmes out it opens up a lot of minutes and usage for the rest of the team. Haliburton is priced up but still feels safe for cash games, however I wonder how much of a GPP ceiling he now has at an $8,200 price tag on DK. Buddy Hield is also priced up at $6,900 but if he’s playing 38-40 minutes I still like his upside if he gets hot from 3. He’s at .96 fantasy points per minute without Fox and Holmes so I’m fine going here for GPPs. I also love Tristan Thompson in this spot. He may come in low owned again should Richaun Holmes get ruled out after lock. We’ll need to monitor news but if Holmes is out we can play pretty much anyone in the Kings starting line-up for GPPs.
GPP Plays:
In looking at this slate it’s somewhat unique as there is some extreme chalk at Center. Also, it feels like everyone is overpriced as Draftkings has increased the pricing on all the spend-ups. What really pops out is there are 3 great plays at Center that are going to soak up a ton of ownership. Nikola Jokic, John Collins and Demarcus Cousins are all great point per dollar plays that are only Center eligible on DK. This is making some of the other Center plays come in at extremely low ownership. Jokic and Collins are hard to fade but in my GPP portfolio I’m going to try and get overweight on some other Centers as well mainly because they’ll be extremely low owned.
- Tristan Thompson – I touched on this above but with some other extreme chalk at Center and no clarity on if Richaun Holmes will play, I expect Tristan to potentially be single digit owned on a 5 game slate. Thompson is priced at $4,400 on DK, which is much too low should Holmes get ruled out. Tristan is at 1.04 fantasy points per minute with Holmes off the floor and should see 26-28 minutes if Holmes is ruled out. What makes this tricky is Sacramento versus Los Angeles is an island game, 2 hours after the other four games of the slate lock. We’ll need to have a plan in place but I think it’s worth the risk should we get Tristan Thompson starting again at low ownership .
- Robert Williams – Yet another center play I like tonight that should be under 5% owned. Al Horford has been ruled out which has a big impact on Robert Williams’ rates. With Horford off the court Mr. Williams is right around a fantasy point per minute player. He’s played 29 and 36 minutes his last 2 games, so the minutes are trending up. A $5,500 price tag on DK is much too low for the potential upside we can get at low ownership. In addition, The Timelord (best nickname in the NBA?) gets to face off against a Cleveland team that’s depleted in the front court with Allen and Mobley ruled out. I like getting overweight in this spot for GPPs and may have every roster of mine be double Center on Draftkings.
- Ricky Rubio – Rubio is expected to garner around 20% ownership tonight, which doesn’t feel too high for a 5 game slate. Cleveland has been hit with some injuries of late as Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are all out tonight. If we take that trio off the court, Rubio is at 1.2 fantasy points per minute and 28% usage, which represents a 4% usage bump and a .13 fantasy point per minute bump up from his normal rates. The minutes are always an issue with Rubio since he plays off the bench. If we look at last game, he was at 29 minutes and didn’t even play the last few minutes due to a blowout. I expect tonight’s match-up with Boston to stay competitive and currently have Rubio projected for 30 minutes. At a $6,200 price tag on DK he feels slightly under priced for his potential upside. I’ll be trying to get overweight in GPPs and will have some Rubio and Robert Williams pairings in hopes this game stays close.
FADES:
- Jrue Holiday – So far this season Jrue has some impressive rates with Giannis off the court. He’s at 1.44 fantasy points per minute and 37% usage. If we look back to last year without Giannis we can get a bigger sample size as he’s at 1.33 fantasy points per minute and 28% usage. The issue tonight is Jrue is priced all the way up to $9,400 on DK. This may be a bias but I just don’t see Jrue as a $9,400 dollar player. Also, at Point Guard there are a lot of cheaper plays I like and would rather spend up at other positions. I don’t see much upside left at this price tag and he’s expected to garner close to 30% ownership. It’s a scary fade but I’ll be coming in underweight in GPPs and just hope Jrue doesn’t burn me.
This is an interesting slate with inflated pricing and a lot to like at the Center position. I’m expecting heavy chalk on Jokic tonight since there aren’t really any other spend-up options that come close to his projection. I’m always heavy on Jokic but may just match the field tonight since there are some cheap Center plays I like. It should be an interesting slate, hopefully we can get some extra Christmas money right before the holidays.
Max
