This weekend went well in the DFS and betting streets (sports betting is legal in Virginia!!!). I had some NFL sweats and dabbled in some NBA showdown contests that made me a little extra Christmas money. I feel confident going into this week but I’m expecting absolute craziness with COVID/Omnicron spreading throughout the league. This article is getting tougher and tougher to write early in the day as the news that comes out this afternoon and around lock will shape the slate. Let’s see what we can dig into to get us set-up for tonight’s 6 game slate.
Significant Players Listed Out:
- Zach Lavine
- De’Aaron Fox
- Andrew Wiggins
- Al Horford
- Kevin Porter Jr.
- Jalen Green
- Jordan Poole
- Marcus Morris
- Andre Drummond
- Marvin Bagley
- Davion Mitchell
- Alex Len
- Terence Davis
- Josh Richardson
- Cody Martin
- Shake Milton
Significant Players Listed Questionable:
- Joel Embiid
- Jayson Tatum
- Paul George
- Richaun Holmes
- Dennis Schroder
- Tyrese Maxey
- Doug Mcdermott
- Armoni Brooks
- Derrick Jones Jr.
- Brandon Clarke (Doubtful)
The injury list in the NBA seems to get longer and longer each day. As always, we will need to monitor news all the way through lock as NBA DFS has truly become a full-time job and quite a grind each day to keep up with news.
+EV Strategy:
- With the state of the league we should make sure not to get tied to any plays this early in the day. For example, I may not like the spend-ups because we have no value as of 10:00 AM but by the time lock rolls around we may have tons of value that makes the higher priced players some of the best plays of the slate. Be ready to adapt to any potential news. We’ll also need to plan for late swaps tonight. In the later games we have Richaun Holmes and Paul George both listed questionable. These injuries will have a significant impact on the slate and we may not get official word until after lock whether they’re in or out. Make sure your rosters have a few plays from the late games to take advantage of late swap, with the current state of the league we can pretty much expect late news to drop each night so be prepared to take advantage of this.
GPP Game Stacks:
- As of now my plan is to stack both the late games to give my rosters maximum flexibility. The Sacramento vs. Golden State game is my favorite of the two and already has a lot of value that’s opened up with Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins and De’Aaron Fox all being out. If Richaun Holmes gets ruled out we’ll have a full on game stack with tons of plays on each side. As of this writing I’m expecting Steph Curry to come in low owned. If we get enough value that opens up, I love Steph for GPPs. With Wiggins and Poole off the court this year he’s at 1.63 fantasy points per minute and 35% usage which represents a .23 fantasy point per minute bump and a 4% usage bump. A match-up with Sacramento is a perfect set-up for a blow-up spot from Curry at potentially low ownership as he’s been in a bit of a funk lately with 5 straight games under 50 fantasy points. We also have Otto Porter as a value option and Bjelica is sneaky as he’s at 1.16 fantasy points per minute when Poole and Wiggins are off the floor. On Sacramento, Haliburton is expected to be very chalky so if we are playing him we need to differentiate in other spots. The Richaun Holmes news is big, if he’s out Metu and Tristan Thompson become more valuable and can be included in our game stacks. I plan on stacking this game in a number of ways in hopes this one stays competitive.
GPP Plays:
- Dejounte Murray – Dejounte is in the last game of the evening which will give us some flexiblity should news drop after lock. I’m expecting Dejounte to come in low owned and I like the spot as I never mind attacking players against Reggie Jackson. Dejounte always has triple-double upside and is priced appropriately at $9800 on DK. Dejounte’s at 1.34 fantasy points per minute on the season and has gone for over 48 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. He has a high floor, a high ceiling and should come in at low ownership which are my favorite types of plays for GPPs.
- Jaren Jackson Jr. – Jaren Jackson is in a great spot versus Oklahoma City tonight. Memphis should control this game as they are favored by 8 points over the Thunder tonight. The biggest issue with Jaren Jackson is the minutes. He seems to always be in foul trouble and Memphis has been involved in some blowouts of late that have limited the minutes for Jackson. For GPPs, we are looking for upside and if Mr. Jackson gets 32 to 34 minutes versus the Thunder he should smash. With Ja Morant off the floor he’s at 1.24 fantasy points per minute on the season and 30% usage. Those are significant bumps from his normal averages. Also, if your into match-up history, Jaren had 42 fantasy points in 20 minutes earlier this season versus OKC. I’m expecting him to have a slight ownership discount based on his recent game logs but the upside is still there for GPPs.
YOLO Play:
- Nemanja Bjelica – This is for large field GPPs only as I expect him to be under 5% owned. He’s priced at $3,600 on DK and fills a weak Power Forward position. He also provides direct leverage off the Otto Porter chalk. Mr. Bjelica is at 1.16 fantasy points per minute without Wiggins and Poole, I also checked how he does if Curry is on the floor without Poole and Wiggins and he’s at 1.2 fantasy points per minute on the year (small sample size). The biggest issue with Bjelica is the minutes as he’s typically in the 15-18 minute range. The Warriors will be short handed tonight and I can see a match-up versus Sacramento going small, so there’s only room for upside on the minutes in this spot. If we can get even 20 minutes out of Bjelica he can easily smash his price tag and even without getting big minutes, Bjelica can hit value just based on efficiency. I’ll have some shares of Bjelica in my GPP portfolio as a direct pivot off the Otto Porter chalk.
FADES:
- Chimezie Metu – This fade is somewhat complicated this early in the day. If Richaun Holmes gets ruled out early, Metu would become very chalky at a weak Power Forward position. Metu is around a fantasy point per minute producer on the year but I don’t think the minutes are stable. If he isn’t starting I’d suggest a full fade but even if he starts he has a really tough match-up with Draymond Green who’s known as one of the best defensive players in the NBA. Metu is also priced at $4,700 on DK, which is a significant increase from where he was priced just a few games ago. My initial plan is to be underweight on Metu, but this will be dictated by ownership projections. If we see Metu getting chalky don’t be afraid to come in underweight in your tournament exposures.
These NBA DFS slates seem to get harder and harder by the day with all the players listed on the injury report. This article just provides some of my initial GPP thoughts on the slate. I’ll have updated cores for both sites about 30 minutes before lock so please check there for my favorite GPP plays around lock.
Max
