Wow, what a slate! We have more injury news than I’ve ever seen and it feels safe to say this may be the craziest and most fun DFS Slate of the year. There are so many great plays for an 8 game slate. As you can tell I’m pretty excited, maybe because it’s Friday, maybe because we have some great December weather or maybe just because I love tonight’s slate. Let’s dive in as this article is going to focus on large field GPPs.
Significant Players Currently Out:
- Russell Westbrook
- Giannis Antetekoumpo
- Bam Adebayo
- De’Aaron Fox
- Ja Morant
- CJ McCollum
- Bobby Portis
- Jalen Suggs
- Jimmy Butler
- Michael Porter Jr.
- Al Horford
- Jordan Poole
- Terrence Ross
Significant Players Listed Questionable:
- Lamelo Ball
- Cole Anthony
- Mo Bamba
- Tyler Herro
- Richaun Holmes (Doubtful)
- Troy Haliburton
- Tyler Herro
As you can see this slate is wild and the news is going to be constant throughout the day and evening. Buckle up for a wild ride as this slate is going to take some time and effort to be profitable.
+EV Strategy:
- With so many impactful players listed out/questionable doing research and keeping up to date with news is going to give us an advantage in GPPs. We can really get a solid player pool filled with all great plays since so much value has opened up and with some great spend up options. With this many good plays on a slate there should be a lot of solid pivots off of chalkier plays. Follow ownership projections closely and don’t be afraid to get different since most pivots are going to be great plays as well.
Game Stacks:
There are a bunch of games and teams I love tonight but I’ll list my favorite game below for GPPs:
- Memphis vs. Sacramento – This game has it all. The Sacramento side has so many great value plays with Fox and Holmes most likely being out tonight. In addition, Haliburton is questionable and this game is one of the last games of the evening. There are tons of great plays here whether Haliburton plays or not so leave some spots open with players from this game on your rosters. My favorite Sacramento plays are Haliburton, Hield, Davion Mitchell and Tristan Thompson. Sacramento will be chalky but stacking this game with some Memphis bring backs will help differentiate in GPPs. On Memphis, Jaren Jackson sticks out as a great GPP play. He’s at around 1.25 fantasy points per minute without Ja Morant on the floor and gets a great match-up in Sacramento. I’m not expecting Jaren Jackson to garner much ownership coming off that dud he put up last game. Also Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks are in play for GPPs on the Grizzlies side. Both are priced reasonably but they have low ownership and major upside in a fast paced match-up with Sacramento. This game has a 221 total and is in the last time slot of the night so locking players from this game will help with giving your rosters flexibility to late swap.
GPP Plays:
As listed above, I love the Memphis plays as low owned bring backs in Sacramento game stacks. Below is a list of a few plays outside of the Sacramento vs. Memphis match-up that I like:
- Steph Curry – Steph has been in a bit of a slump of late as he hasn’t gone over 50 fantasy points in 4 straight games. He’s also priced up at $11,300 on DK, so we aren’t getting any sort of discount. What I like here is that the ownership is projected at 3%. In addition, Jordan Poole has been ruled out, which does have a significant positive impact on Steph’s rates. With Poole off the floor Steph is at 1.54 fantasy points per minute and 36% usage, this represents a 5% usage boost and a .12 fantasy point per minute boost. If Steph continues to be projected under 5% I’ll be well overweight in tournaments tonight.
- Jonas Valanciunas – JVAL is priced at a slight discount on DK at $8,200. I’m anticipating single digit ownership in a smash spot. In addition, he also gets a depleted Milwaukee front court to square off against. I’m not sure what Milwaukee will do at Center tonight but nobody on the active roster has a prayer of stopping JVAL. On the season, Valanciunas is at 1.27 fantasy points per minute and could potentially play 34 minutes tonight. The math checks out that he’s under priced in this spot. The other reason I like JVAL is there’s a lot of chalky Milwaukee value, if we are looking for a way to get correlation with Milwaukee plays at low ownership, JVAL provides that. I’ll be using him as a run back with some of the Milwaukee plays (Middleton, Jrue).
- Robert Williams – With Horford getting ruled out, I love the upside for The Timelord in this match-up with the Warriors. His rates have been down this year but that’s mainly tied to him being a bad fit with Al Horford. If you take Horford off the floor, Williams is over a fantasy point per minute player. He’s priced all the way down at $4,800 on DK and has a ton of upside at this price tag if he can get the minutes. Ownership projections have yet to update on him but hopefully he doesn’t get too chalky. With Jokic on the slate as well, it looks like a lot of my GPP rosters will be double Center lineups on DK.
Fades:
- Jrue Holiday – That’s right…I’ll be getting underweight on the chalkiest play of the slate. I know Jrue projects great but his price tag has come up quite a bit at $7,900 on DK. It’s not that Jrue isn’t a great play but there are some other really solid Point Guard pivots on this slate. Donovan Mitchell, Cole Anthony and Kyle Lowry just to name a few around Jrue’s price tag that have less than half the ownership that Holiday is garnering. I’ll be underweight on Jrue in GPPs (I’ll probably play Jrue in cash games) and truly feel like any really chalky plays can be faded in GPPs with so many amazing pivots on this slate.
This is going to be a wild slate so don’t be afraid to pivot off some chalk and take advantage of late swap to get some lower owned plays in your lineups. Hope everyone enjoys your Friday (I’m pumped for tonight)!
Max
